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Tuesday NBA Finals Game 6 Sharp Report

July 20, 2021 12:21 AM

Sports bettors are in for a busy Tuesday as we have 15 MLB games to choose from along with Game 6 of the NBA Finals. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Brady Kannon from noon-2 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for tonight's pivotal NBA Finals showdown...

9 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks

This is Game 6 of the NBA Finals. The Bucks lead the series 3-2 and can eliminate the Suns with a victory tonight. Milwaukee is looking to win their second NBA Championship and first since 1971. Meanwhile, the Suns have their backs against the wall and must win to survive and force a Game 7 in Phoenix. After losing the first two games of the series, the Bucks have won three straight, most recently beating the Suns 123-119 in Game 6, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. This Game 6 line opened with the Bucks listed as a 5-point home favorite. This line hasn't budged off the opener. However, a closer look at the market shows some slight liability on the Suns plus the points. A few books are juicing up Phoenix + 5 at -115, signaling a possible fall to 4.5. The next move is critical. We will have to see how this line breaks on game day and the hours and minutes leading up to tip-off. If you see this line fall to 4.5 across the board, that will indicate further respected money on Phoenix. If this flips to -5.5, that will signal some late action breaking the Bucks' way. 

Pros have taken a position on the total. After opening at 223, we've seen the line fall to 222. Some shops are even flirting with a drop to 221.5. This drop is meaningful because the public is hammering the over, yet the total has fallen. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the under. The public sees a total of 242 points scored in the last game and days give me another over. However, this recency bias may provide a buy low under opportunity. Historically, late series unders have been a smart bet. Over the past decade, playoff unders in Games 6 and 7 have cashed at roughly a 58% clip. This is often due to tired legs, a greater emphasis on defense and the importance and pressure of an elimination game. Leading the series 3-2, the Bucks are -400 favorites to win the NBA Title (80% implied probability). The Suns are + 310 dogs. 

Game 6 Player Props to Consider (odds via BetMGM)

Booker over 30.5 points (-125)

*Booker has scored 40 points and 42 points his last two games and has gone over this number in 3 of 5 NBA Finals games.

Middleton over 2.5 three-pointers (-145)

*Middleton has hit 3 three-pointers in three straight games. He has gone over this number is 4 of 5 NBA Finals games

Holiday over 32.5 points plus rebounds plus assists (-125)

*Holiday had a combined 44 points plus rebounds plus assists in Game 5. He has gone over this number in two of his last three NBA Finals games.

Connaughton over 14.5 points plus rebounds plus assists (-115)

*Connaughton had a combined 20 points plus rebounds plus assists in Game 5. He has gone over this number in 4 of 5 NBA Finals games, including four straight. 

Paul over 30.5 points plus assists (-115)

*Paul combined for 32 points plus assists in Game 5. He has gone over this number in 3 of 5 NBA Finals games.

Johnson over 8.5 points plus assists (-135)

*Johnson has gone over this number in 4 of 5 NBA Finals games.

NBA Finals MVP

Giannis -350

Paul + 600

Booker + 600

Middleton + 2500

Holiday + 6600

Ayton + 25000

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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