Tuesday NBA and MLB Sharp Report (6-29)

June 29, 2021 01:18 AM

Bettors have a loaded betting menu today, including 15 MLB games and 1 NBA playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for a trio of Tuesday games.

7:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (38-40) at New York Yankees (40-38)

The Angels stole last night's series opener 5-3, cashing as + 145 road dogs. The Yankees have now lost four straight games. In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Andrew Heaney (4-5, 4.72 ERA) and New York starts righty Jameson Taillon (2-4, 5.18 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as -150 home favorites and the Angels a + 135 road dog. The public can't quit the Yankees and expects a bounce back performance at home after a lackluster loss. But wiseguys are biting on the Angels at another plus-money payout, as we've seen Los Angels fall from + 135 to + 130. The Angels have value as a contrarian road dog off a win and a dog with a high total. Historically, high totals have benefited dogs as the more expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. The Angels are batting .253 this season, 4th in MLB. The Yankees are batting .235, which ranks 16th.

7:07 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (41-38) at Toronto Blue Jays (40-36)

Both of these teams have played well as of late. The Mariners just took two of three from the White Sox and are now 10-3 over their last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays just took three of four from the Orioles and are now 7-1 over their last 8 games. In tonight's series opener, the Mariners send out righty Chris Flexen (6-3, 3.87 ERA) and the Jays counter with lefty Robbie Ray (5-3, 3.35 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -175 home favorite and Seattle a + 160 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Jays, steaming Toronto up from -175 to -195. Non-division home favorites are 268-259 (63%) this season. Big home favorites -150 or more following a day off are 37-17 (69%) this season. Toronto will lean on their bats in this one. The Jays are hitting .264, which ranks 2nd in MLB. The Mariners are hitting .217, which ranks 29th. Toronto is + 65 in run differential. Seattle is -43. We could also be looking at a low scoring game here. The total is 10 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall to 9.5. The weather calls for mid 70s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from right center. 

8:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks

This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Bucks lead the series 2-1. Milwaukee has won and covered as a favorite in the previous two games, most recently beating Atlanta 113-102 as 4.5-point road favorites in Game 3. Tonight, the Bucks look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. This Game 4 line opened with Milwaukee listed as a 6-point road favorite. The public is riding the hot hand and once again laying the points with Giannis and Company. We also saw some wiseguy money hit Milwaukee as soon as Hawks star Trae Young was announced as questionable (ankle), pushing Milwaukee up from -6 to -7. Road favorites are 15-8 (65%) this postseason. Playoff favorites with at least a half point of line movement in their favor are 27-21 ATS (56%). Wiseguys have also gotten down hard on the under, likely due to Young's questionable status. After opening at 221, the total has fallen to 219. The under is 2-1 this series. When the total is 215 or higher in the Conference Finals, the under is 29-18 (62%) over the past decade. Atlanta is 10-3-1 (79%) to the under this playoffs. Leading 2-1, the Bucks are -1600 favorites (94%) to advance to the NBA Finals. The Hawks are + 850 dogs to come back and win the series. 

Update NBA Title Odds

Bucks -110

Suns + 150

Clippers + 850

Hawks + 3000

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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