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Tuesday NBA and MLB Sharp Report (6-22)

June 22, 2021 01:21 AM

Bettors have a loaded betting menu today, including 15 MLB games, 1 NBA playoff game and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for a trio of Tuesday games...

1:10 p.m ET: Cincinnati Reds (35-36) at Minnesota Twins (31-41)

The Twins took Monday's interleague series opener 7-5, walking off a Miguel Sano homer in the 12th inning and cashing as + 102 home dogs. It marked the 5th straight win for Minnesota and 5th straight loss for Cincinnati. In this afternoon's rematch, the Reds send out veteran lefty Wade Miley (6-4, 2.88 ERA) and the Twins counter with 6'8'' righty Bailey Ober (0-0, 3.71 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a short -110 road favorite and Minnesota an even money home dog (+ 100). Respected wiseguys have pounced on the streaking Twins, steaming Minnesota up from + 100 to -120. Essentially, pro money has flipped the Twins from a dog to a favorite. Home teams off a win receiving 15-cents of steam or more are 95-51 (65%) this season. Interleague favorites with a line move in their favor are 44-29 (60%). The total opened at 9.5 and pros immediately hit the under with the hook, driving the line down to 9. 

9 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns

This is Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. The Suns lead the series 1-0 after securing 120-114 win in Sunday's series opener, covering as 4-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Suns opened as a 6-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. Recreational bettors like the idea of getting big points with the Clippers but are also wary of betting against Phoenix, who have now won 8-straight playoff games. Phoenix is 9-2 ATS in the postseason, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a favorite. However, despite this even betting, we've seen the line dip slightly from 6 to 5.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. So this half-point drop signals some respected money grabbing the Clippers and forcing oddsmakers to adjust the line in favor of the road dog. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 224. The Game 1 total was 219.5 and sailed over, landing on 234. The books have adjusted tonight's total up nearly 5-points from the opener, which could provide a sneaky contrarian under opportunity. When the total is 220 or more, the under is 9-2 in the Conference Finals over the past decade. Both Chris Paul and Kawhi Leonard are expected to miss tonight's game. Leading the series 1-0, the Suns are a -400 favorite to advance to the NBA Finals. The Clippers are a + 310 dog.

10:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (30-43) at Seattle Mariners (38-36)

These interleague opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Rockies have lost two straight while the Mariners just swept the Rays, pushing Seattle's record to 7-1 over their last 8 games. In tonight's series opener, the Rockies hand the ball to lefty Kyle Freeland (0-2, 9.58 ERA) and the Mariners counter with righty Chris Flexen (6-3, 4.12 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -145 home favorite and Colorado a + 135 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're getting down on the home favorite with a better record and pitching advantage, as we've seen the Mariners get steamed up from -145 to -155. Interleague home teams with a line move in their favor are 50-30 (63%) this season.The Mariners are also a "Sweet Spot" non-division home favorite -150 to -175. These teams are 52-22 (70%). Seattle is 23-15 at home this season. The Rockies are the worst road team in MLB, going 5-27 as visitors thus far. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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