Tuesday NBA and MLB Sharp Report (6-15)

June 15, 2021 01:04 AM

Bettors have a loaded betting menu today, including 15 MLB games, 1 NBA playoff game and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. We'll be joined by VSiN MLB analyst Josh Towers and also talk NBA betting with Brian Geltzeiler. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for a trio of Tuesday games...


8:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets

This is Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 2-2. After losing the first two games in Brooklyn, the Bucks bounced back with a pair of wins on their home court, including a 107-96 win in Game 4, easily winning outright as a 2-point home dog. In tonight's pivotal Game 5, the Bucks opened as a 2.5-point road favorite. Sharps have pounced on the streaking Bucks, driving this line up from -2.5 to -4. Some shops are even inching toward -4.5. The elephant in the room here and a big reason for the steam toward Milwaukee is the fact that Brooklyn will be down two of their three star players. Both Kyrie Irving (ankle) and James Harden (hamstring) are out for this game. Road favorites are 12-5 ATS (71%) this postseason. Short favorites -5 or less are 26-14 ATS (65%). Favorites with a line move in their favor are 25-15 ATS (63%). Favorites are 41-24 ATS (63%) this postseason, including 10-6 ATS (63%) in Round Two. The under has also taken in some smart money, as we've seen the total fall from 220 to 217.5. The under is a perfect 4-0 this series. Unders are 10-6 (63%) in Round Two. When the total is less than 220, the under is 13-8 (62%) this postseason. With the series tied 2-2, the Bucks are now a slight -165 favorite to advance to the next round. The Nets are a + 140 dog to win the series. 


7:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (22-43) at Cleveland Indians (35-28)

The Indians beat the Orioles 4-3 in Monday night's series opener, cashing as -156 home favorites. It marked the 5th straight loss for Baltimore, who own the second worst record in MLB behind only Arizona. In tonight's rematch, the Orioles send out veteran righty Matt Harvey (3-7, 7.41 ERA) and the Indians counter with young righty Cal Quantrill (0-2, 3.21 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -160 home favorite and Baltimore a + 145 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're celebrating "Fade Harvey Day" by steaming up the Indians from -160 to -165. Betting against Harvey has gone 8-5 this season, including 5-2 over his last seven starts. Cleveland also finds themselves in a sweet spot for non-division home favorites (-150 to -175), which has gone 44-19 (70%) this season. There also appears to be some liability on the under, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -120. This signals a possible fall to 8.5. The weather could play a factor in this one. The forecast calls for 15 MPH winds blowing directly in from center. The Tribe are 20-13 as a favorite this season. Baltimore is 20-35 as a dog. Cleveland is 20-14 against righties. Baltimore is 14-27 against righties. Cleveland is 17-13. Baltimore is 11-22 on the road. 

8:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (25-41) at Houston Astros (37-28)

This is Game 1 of a two-game series between these AL West rivals. The Rangers are in a tailspin as of late, going 3-14 over their past 17 games. Meanwhile, the Astros just took two of three against the Twins and are now 10-4 over their past 14 games. In tonight's series opener, Texas starts veteran Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.13 ERA) and the Astros give the ball to fellow righty Lance McCullers (3-1, 2.96 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a hefty -170 home favorite and Texas a + 155 road dog. Pros and Joes seem to be united on the Astros as we've seen lopsided support push Houston from -170 to -180. Houston has owned their fellow AL West opponents this season, going 21-9 (64%) against division foes. If they're at home, Houston improves to 13-5 (72%) inside the division. The Astros will lean on their bats in this one. Houstin is hitting .274, which ranks 1st in MLB. Texas is batting .230, which ranks 23rd. The Astros are 20-13 at home this season. The Rangers are 10-25 on the road, 3rd worst in MLB. Pros are also targeting this under. The total opened at 8.5 but the under is juiced to -120. Some shops are already inching down to 8. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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