Tuesday MLB Sharp Report

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For an in depth breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (61-53) at New York Yankees (72-44)

The Rays stole last night's AL East series opener 4-0, cashing as hefty +205 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Tampa Bay taps lefty Jeffrey Springs (4-3, 2.56 ERA) and New York counters with fellow southpaw Nestor Cortes (9-3, 2.67 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -180 home favorite and the Rays a +165 road dog. The public is happy to lay the wood with New York at home. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Yankees fall from -180 to -165. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tampa Bay, with pros grabbing the Rays at a decent plus money payout (+165 to +150). Tampa Bay has value as a contrarian road dog and a divisional dog with a line move in their favor. The Rays have won three straight and are 7-4 in their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 2-10 over their last 12 games. Springs has a 1.64 ERA in two August starts. Cortes has a 3.97 ERA in two August starts. The total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -115 or -120, signaling under liability. The under is 7-3 in the last ten head-to-head matchups. The under is 5-1 in the last six Yankees games. 

 

7:45 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (51-66) at St. Louis Cardinals (63-51)

These NL non-division foes are at opposite ends of the playoff spectrum. The Rockies just dropped two of three at home to the Diamondbacks and sit in last place in the NL West and 13.5-games back of the final Wild Card spot. On the flip side, the Cardinals just took two of three from the Brewers at home and now lead the NL Central by two games over Milwaukee. In tonight's series opener, Colorado sends out lefty Kyle Freeland (7-8, 4.84 ERA) and St. Louis counters with lefty trade deadline acquisition Jose Quintana (4-5, 3.37 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a -190 home favorite and the Rockies a +175 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed St. Louis up from -190 to -225. Home favorites -200 or more are 196-78 (72%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against opponents who did not are 441-250 (64%). If both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 83-49 (63%). The Cardinals also have correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). St. Louis is 40-18 as a favorite, 37-21 at home and 16-9 against lefties. Colorado is 35-56 as a dog, 18-36 on the road and 21-25 against lefties. 

 

9:38 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (63-54) at Los Angeles Angels (51-65)

The Mariners won last night's AL West series opener 6-2, taking care of business as slight -115 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Seattle hands the ball to lefty Robbie Ray (8-8, 3.90 ERA) and Los Angeles counters with fellow southpaw Jose Suarez (4-4, 4.04 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a -160 road favorite and the Angels a +145 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Seattle, driving the Mariners up from -160 to -170. Road favorites are 384-258 (60%) this season. The Mariners hold an edge at the plate (hitting .231 vs .228) and on the mound (ERA 3.68 vs 3.82). Seattle is 32-15 as a favorite and 32-28 on the road. Los Angeles is 13-35 as a dog and 26-34 at home. The total is 7.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability. The forecast calls for high 70s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to center at Angel Stadium. The over is 6-3 in the last nine Mariners games and 3-0 in the last three head-to-head matchups between these teams.

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