Tuesday MLB Sharp Report

rangers

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (45-27) at New York Mets (47-27)

This Interleague showdown features two of the top three teams in baseball going head-to-head. In tonight's series opener, Houston taps lefty Framber Valdez (7-3, 2.90 ERA) and New York counters with righty Carlos Carrasco (8-3, 4.42 ERA). This line opened at virtual pick'em with the Astros listed as a slight -110 road favorite and the Mets a +100 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Astros at the short chalk price, steaming Houston up from -110 to -120. Non-division road favorites are 139-73 (66%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs last season against teams who did not are 290-155 (65%). When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 58-31 (65%). The Astros are 39-18 as a favorite, 25-16 on the road and 31-19 against righties. Houston leads the season series 2-1. The Astros are 7-2 in Valdez's last nine starts. Meanwhile, Carrasco has an ERA of 5.33 in the month of June. 

 

8:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (35-37) at Kansas City Royals (26-46)

The Rangers won last night's series opener 10-4, taking care of business as -150 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Texas hands the ball to righty Jon Gray (3-3, 4.18 ERA) and Kansas City counters with fellow righty Jonathan Heasley (1-3, 4.14 ERA). This line opened with the Rangers listed as a -130 road favorite and the Royals a +115 home dog. Pros have hammered Texas, steaming the Rangers up from -130 to -145. Non-division road favorites are 139-73 (66%) this season. The Royals are just 19-38 as dogs, 13-24 at home and 16-32 against righties. Texas holds a big edge on the mound, sporting a team ERA of 3.94 compared to 5.02 for Kansas City. The Rangers are 9-6 over their last 15 games. Meanwhile, the Royals are just 6-9 over their last 15 games. Texas is +9 in run differential. Kansas City is -99. The Rangers lead the season series 3-1. The Rangers have won Gray's last three starts and Gray has an ERA of 2.64 in June. 

 

9:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (45-30) at Arizona Diamondbacks (33-41)

Both of these NL West rivals are looking to rebound from series losses. The Padres just dropped two of three at home against the Phillies while the Diamondbacks just dropped two of three at home against the Tigers. In tonight's series opener, San Diego starts lefty Sean Manaea (3-3, 3.87 ERA) and Arizona sends out righty Zac Gallen (4-2, 2.92 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick'em, with the Padres listed as a slight -108 road favorite and the Snakes a -102 home dog. Sharps have laid the short chalk with San Diego, steaming the Padres up from -108 to -116. Road favorites are 252-149 (63%) this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 58-31 (65%). San Diego also has value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Padres are 29-21 as a favorite, 24-14 on the road and 28-22 against righties. San Diego will lean on their bats, hitting .242 while Arizona sits at .216. The Padres lead the season series 6-1. San Diego is +64 in run differential. Arizona is -48.

 

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