Tuesday MLB Sharp Report

strider

For an in-depth analysis of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I will also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, today is the MLB Trade Deadline. Bettors should proceed with increased caution today, knowing that several players could be traded and out of the lineup. With this in mind, let's dive into a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

6:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (41-61) at Miami Marlins (47-56)

The Reds stole Monday night's series opener 3-1, cashing as +105 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Cincinnati starts righty Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.64 ERA) and Miami taps lefty Braxton Garrett (2-4, 3.96 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a -125 home favorite and the Reds a +115 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Miami, driving the Marlins up from -125 to -135. This a buy low, sell high play on Miami as the Reds have won three straight while the Marlins have lost four straight. Both teams are hitting roughly .240 but the Marlins have a big edge on the mound, sporting a team ERA of 3.91 compared to 5.08 for Cincinnati. Garrett has a 3.00 ERA in five July starts. Ashcraft posted a 4.84 ERA in four July starts. The total opened at 8 and has fallen all the way down to 7 at some shops, indicating smart money hitting the under. 

 

7:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (55-47) at Atlanta Braves (62-41)

Both of these NL East rivals are riding hot streaks. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven games and just swept the Pirates on the road. Meanwhile, the Braves are 6-3 since the break and just swept the Diamondbacks at home. In tonight's series opener, Philadelphia turns to righty Nick Nelson (3-1, 3.94 ERA) and Atlanta counters with fellow righty Spencer Strider (5-3, 2.91 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a hefty -215 home favorite and the Phillies a +195 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the big chalk and have steamed Atlanta up from -215 to -235. Home favorites -200 or more are 161-68 (70%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs last year against teams who did not are 394-224 (64%). When both teams had the previous day off, the favorite is 69-45 (61%). The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling under liability and a possible fall down to 8. Strider is the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year at +130.

 

8:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (52-51) at Texas Rangers (46-56)

The Orioles took last night's series opener 7-2, cashing as +155 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Baltimore hands the ball to righty Jordan Lyles (7-8, 4.56 ERA) and Texas counters with fellow righty Spencer Howard (2-2, 5.93 ERA). This line opened with the Rangers listed as a short -110 home favorite and the Orioles a +100 road dog. The public is all over the Orioles as a trendy dog, yet we've seen this line move further toward Texas (-110 to -120). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rangers, with pros backing the contrarian home favorite. Texas also has "fishy" value as a favorite with a worse record than their opponent and worse starting pitching on the bump. Dan Iassogna, the home plate ump, is 56% to the home team in his career. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 9. 

 

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