Tuesday MLB Sharp Report


Today bettors have a plethora of sweats to choose from including 15 MLB games and one NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a handful of MLB games today receiving big money from respected bettors...


6:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (21-35) at Miami Marlins (22-30)

These NL East rivals are virtually tied in the basement of the division. The Nats just took three straight from the Reds while the Marlins just split a four-game set with the Giants. In tonight's series opener, Washington hands the ball to lefty Evan Lee (0-1, 4.91 ERA) and Miami counters with righty Edward Cabrera (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a -165 home favorite and the Nats a +150 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive price and have steamed Miami up from -165 to -180. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 42-21 (67%). The Marlins are +7 in run differential. The Nats are -77. Miami is 5-1 against Washington this season. 


8:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (25-29) at Milwaukee Brewers (33-23)

These NL non-division foes are trending in opposite directions as of late. The Phillies have won four straight while the Brewers have lost three straight. In tonight's series opener, Philadelphia sends out lefty Ranger Saurez (4-3, 4.69 ERA) and Milwaukee starts righty Jason Alexander (0-0, 2.57 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a short -115 home favorite and the Phillies a +105 dog. Respected money has sided with the road team, steam Philadelphia from +105 to -105. Essentially, the game is becoming a pick'em with line movement in favor of the Phillies. Milwaukee is 24-12 against righties this season but just 9-11 against lefties. Philadelphia's edge comes at the plate, where the Phillies are hitting .246 compared to the Brewers hitting .230. 


9:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets (38-19) at San Diego Padres (32-22)

The Mets took last night's series opener 11-5, cashing as +105 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, New York starts righty Taijuan Walker (3-1, 2.88 ERA) while San Diego trots out fellow righty Yu Darvish (4-3, 4.03 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -130 home favorite and the Mets a +120 road dog. Pros have happily jumped on the division leading Mets at plus money, steaming New York from +120 to +110. The Mets are 28-10 against righties this season. New York is hitting .264 while San Diego sits at just .233. The Mets are +82 in run differential. The Padres are +26. 

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A Numbers Game: Pay attention to stats and trends that are completely lopsided. For example, Matt Rhule and the Panthers are 1-25 straight up when allowing their opponent to score 17 or more points.

Follow The Money: Be aware of Miami's backloaded schedule when betting either side of their 11.5 win total. In December: at SF, at LAC, at BUF, vs GB.

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Adam Burke: Washington -2.5 vs UCLA

Pauly Howard: Golden Knights Under 97 points for the season.

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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