Tuesday MLB Sharp Report


For an in depth breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to check out the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...


2:20 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (70-51) at Chicago Cubs (52-69)

This is the first game of day night doubleheader. The Cardinals took last night's series opener 1-0, taking care of business as -170 road favorites. St. Louis has now won seven straight games to move to an astounding 18-3 over their last 21 games. In this afternoon's rematch, the Cardinals hand the ball to veteran righty Adam Wainwright (9-8, 3.11 ERA) and the Cubs counter with righty Javier Assad (no record), who is making his MLB debut. This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -165 road favorite and Chicago a +150 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand, steaming the Cardinals up from -165 to -185. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against opponents who did not are 464-263 (63%). St. Louis will lean on their advantage at the plate, hitting .257 compared to .242 for Chicago. The Cardinals are 47-18 as a favorite and 50-42 against righties. The Cubs are 35-47 as a dog and 38-48 against righties. Jordan Montgomery pitched a complete game last night, which means the Cardinals bullpen is fully rested. The Cardinals lead the season series 8-4 over the Cubs. 


9:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (53-69) at Oakland Athletics (45-78)

The Marlins blanked the Athletics 3-0 in last night's Interleague series opener, cashing as -150 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Miami turns to righty Pablo Lopez (7-8, 3.83 ERA) and Oakland sends out lefty Zach Logue (3-7, 6.35 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a -135 road favorite and Oakland a +120 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Marlins, driving Miami up from -135 to -140. Non-division road favorites are 216-139 (61%) this season. Miami also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). Miami is 29-20 as a favorite. Oakland is 39-66 as a dog. The Marlins are hitting .232 compared to .215 for the Athletics. The total is 7 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 7.5. Both pitchers have struggled in August, with Lopez posting a 7.04 ERA this month and Logue posting a 12.10 ERA. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to center. 


9:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (64-56) at San Diego Padres (68-56)

If the playoffs started today, both of these Interleague foes would be in. The Guardians lead the AL Central by two games over the Twins. On the flip side, the Padres currently occupy the third and final Wild Card spot in the NL. Cleveland just split a rain-shorted two game set at the White Sox while the Padres split a four games series at home against the Nats. In tonight's series opener, Cleveland starts righty Aaron Civale (2-5, 5.63 ERA) and San Diego sends out righty Mike Clevinger (4-4, 3.63 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -160 home favorite and the Guardians a +145 road dog. Sharps seem to think this opening number was a bit high and have jumped on the Guardians getting plus money, dropping Cleveland down from +145 to +130. The Guardians have value as a contrarian road dog with a reverse line move in their favor. Intlerleague dogs are 69-88 this season, only posting a 44% win rate but a positive 8 units won due to the plus money payouts. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total is 8 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall down to 7.5. The under is 34-26 at Petco Park this season. The under is 6-3 in the last nine Padres games. The under is 8-3 in the last eleven Guardians games. 

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