Tuesday MLB Sharp Report


For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for a trio of MLB games tonight...

7:20 p.m. ET: New York Mets (54-33) at Atlanta Braves (52-36)
The Mets stole Monday night's series opener 4-1, cashing as +120 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, New York hands the ball to lefty David Peterson (5-1, 3.48 ERA) and Atlanta counters with rookie righty Spencer Strider (4-2, 2.60 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -145 home favorite and the Mets a  135 road dog. Pros expect the Braves to bounce back and have laid the chalk, steaming Atlanta up from -145 to -160. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who missed the playoffs are 33-4-182 (65%). Atlanta is 44-21 as a favorite, 30-19 at home and 21-9 against lefties. Strider just set a rookie record by striking out 11 batters and giving up two or less hits in consecutive starts. Strider is currently the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year at +200. 
7:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (48-39) at Minnesota Twins (48-40)
Both of these Interleague foes are looking to bounce back from series losses. The Brewers just dropped two of three at home against the Pirates while the Twins just dropped two of three on the road at the Rangers. In tonight's series opener, Milwaukee starts righty Jason Alexander (2-1, 4.75 ER) and Minnesota counters with fellow righty Josh Winder (4-2, 3.12 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a short -125 home favorite and the Brewers a +115 road dog. Pros have sided with Minnesota, driving the Twins up from -125 to -135. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 63-40 (61%) this season. Minnesota holds a big edge at the plate, hitting .254 compared to .237 for Milwaukee. The Twins also have value as an Interleague favorite with a line move in their favor. 
7:45 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (56-29) at St. Louis Cardinals (47-42)
The Dodgers just swept the Cubs at home to improve to 11-1 over their last 12 games. On the flip side, the Cardinals just split a four-game series at home with the Phillies to move to just 4-8 over their last 12 games. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles taps righty Mitch White (1-1, 3.38 ERA) and St. Louis starts lefty Matthew Liberatore (2-1, 4.74 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a modest -135 road favorite and the Cardinals a +130 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -135 to -145. Non-division road favorites are 153-95 (62%) this season. Los Angeles also holds a rest advantage, as the Dodgers are coming off a day off while the Cardinals played yesterday. Favorites in this "rest vs tired" spot are 256-161 (61%) since 2018. 
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