Tuesday MLB Sharp Report

September 6, 2022 12:54 AM

For an in-depth breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update. 

In the meantime, let's dive into a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...


6:45 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (55-78) at Philadelphia Phillies (73-61)

Both of these NL East opponents are looking to snap losing streaks. The Marlins have lost seven straight games and just got swept on the road at the Braves. Similarly, the Phillies just got swept on the road at the Giants and are just 1-6 over their last seven games. In tonight's series opener, Miami taps lefty Jesus Luzardo (3-6, 3.44 ERA) and Philadelphia sends out righty Aaron Nola (9-11, 3.43 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -200 home favorite and the Marlins a 185 road dog. Pros have laid the big juice with the Phillies, steaming Philadelphia up from -200 to -220. Home favorites -200 or more are 237-96 (71%) this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 101-52 (66%). Philadelphia also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). The Phillies hold a big edge at the plate, hitting .254 compared to .227 for the Marlins. We could be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total is 7 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall down to 6.5. The forecast calls for low 70s and 10 MPH winds blowing in from left center. The Phillies lead the season series 8-5 over Miami. 


8:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (58-76) at Houston Astros (87-48)

The Astros eked out a 1-0 win in last night's series opener, cashing as -180 home favorites. The Rangers have now lost 9 straight games. In tonight's rematch, Texas turns to righty Graham Otto (6-8, 4.82 ERA) and Houston starts lefty Framber Valdez (14-4, 2.63 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a hefty -240 home favorite and the Rangers a 215 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves here. They're banking on Texas's losing skid to continue, steaming the Astros up from -240 to -260. Home favorites -200 or more are 237-96 (71%) this season. Houston has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Astros are 79-35 as a favorite and 44-20 at home. The Rangers are 35-45 as a dog and 30-38 on the road. Valdez posted a 2.04 ERA in six August starts. Houston went 6-0 in those games, including a pair of wins over Texas in that span. Houston is 13-4 against Texas this season. The total has fallen from 8 down to 7.5, signaling some sharp under money. The Astros are 77-50 to the under this season, the top under team in baseball.


8:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (71-63) at Colorado Rockies (57-79)

The Brewers took care of business in last night's series opener, winning 6-4 as -140 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Milwaukee hands the ball to righty Brandon Woodruff (9-4, 3.54 ERA) and Colorado counters with fellow righty Chad Kuhl (6-8, 5.19 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -175 road favorite and the Rockies a 160 home dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Brewers up from -175 to -185. Non-division road favorites are 250-160 (61%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against opponents who did not are 520-289 (64%). Milwaukee is 60-44 as a favorite and 49-42 against righties. Colorado is 40-69 as a dog and 33-50 against righties. The Brewers are 6-2 in Woodruff's last eight starts. The Rockies are 0-5 in Kuhl's last five starts. The Brewers lead the season series 4-1 over the Rockies.

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