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Tuesday MLB Sharp Report (9-7)


Today we have a loaded slate of 15 MLB games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m. ET. We'll be joined by VSiN baseball expert Josh Towers and Adam Burke.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for several MLB games tonight ...

7:20 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (57-80) at Atlanta Braves (72-64)

These NL East rivals are at opposite ends of the playoff spectrum. The Braves sit in first place in the division, 1.5-games ahead of the second place Phillies. Meanwhile, the Nats are tied with the Marlins for last place. In tonight's series opener, Washington hands the ball to righty Paolo Espino (4-4, 4.08 ERA) and Atlanta counters with lefty Max Fried (11-7, 3.51 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a hefty -210 home favorite and the Nats a + 190 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive price and have laid the chalk with Atlanta, steaming the Braves up from -210 to -230. Teams receiving 15-cents of steam or more off a win are 233-157 (59.7%). Atlanta is a system match as they just beat Colorado 9-2 their last time out. Big favorites -200 or more off a win are 139-53 (72.4%). This is also a "schedule spot" advantage for the Braves, who were off yesterday while the Nats played the Mets at home and now must travel. Rested favorites against teams on a back-to-back are 64-40 (61.5%). Washington is 26-61 as a dog, 16-26 against lefties and 24-41 on the road. The Braves are 12-4 against the Nats this season. 

8:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (88-50) at Colorado Rockies (63-75)

The Giants took care of business in last night's series opener, beating the Rockies 10-5 as -150 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, San Francisco starts righty Logan Webb (8-3, 2.56 ERA) and Colorado sends out fellow righty Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.13 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -160 road favorite and the Rockies a 150 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the far superior team with the glaring starting pitcher advantage, steaming the Giants up from -160 to -190. Road favorites coming off a big win of 5-runs or more are 86-50 (63.2%) this season. The Giants are 13-6 (68.4%) when they receive big steam 20-cents or more in their favor. The Giants are 55-26 as a favorite. The Rockies are 39-63 as a dog. San Francisco is also 63-31 against righties while Colorado is just 39-59 against righties. The Giants are 10-4 against the Rockies this season. 

9:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (49-88) at Arizona Diamondbacks (45-93)

This Interleague showdown isn't garnering much attention as it features two of the four worst teams in MLB going head-to-head. But sharps have certainly identified an edge. In tonight's series opener, Texas gives the ball to righty Spencer Howard (0-3, 6.56 ERA) and Arizona rebuttals with fellow righty Zac Gallen (2-8, 4.34 ERA). This line opened with the Diamondbacks listed as a -135 home favorite and the Rangers a 125 road dog. The public sees two bad teams and says "I'll take a shot with Texas at plus money." However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Arizona move from -135 to -155. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Snakes at home. Non-division home favorites receiving steam 10-cents or more are 242-161 (60%) this season. If they're in the "Sweet Spot" range of -150 to -175 they improve to 94-55 (63.1%). This is also a "Schedule Spot" advantage for Arizona, who had the day off yesterday while the Rangers played the Angels in Los Angeles. Non-division rested favorites against teams on a back-to-back are 39-19 (67.2%). Arizona is 10-8 as a favorite this season. Texas is 40-76 as a dog. 

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