Tuesday MLB sharp report (9-13)


Today we have a loaded slate of 16 MLB games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for several MLB games tonight …

6:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (89-55) at Detroit Tigers (68-76)

This Interleague showdown features a pair of teams at opposite ends of the standings. Milwaukee is running away with the NL Central, leading the second place Reds by 14 games. Meanwhile, Detroit is 14.5 games back of the first-place White Sox in the AL Central. In tonight's series opener, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Freddy Peralta (9-4, 2.69 ERA) and the Tigers counter with fellow righty Wily Peralta (3-3, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a hefty -185 road favorite and Detroit a + 170 home dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk price and have steamed the Brewers up from -185 to -200. Big road favorites -200 or more coming off a win are 31-9 (78%) this season.

The Brewers qualify as they're riding a five-game win streak. Interleague favorites -200 or more are 324-126 (72%). Milwaukee is 71-40 against righties and 70-42 as a dog. Detroit is 43-54 against righties and 55-67 as a dog. 

7:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (74-69) at New York Mets (72-73)

The Cardinals stole Monday night's series opener 7-0, cashing as a short -110 road favorite. St. Louis is now only a half-game back of the second NL Wild Card spot while the Mets are still in contention, trailing by 3.5 games.

In tonight's rematch, the Cardinals send out righty Jake Woodford (2-3, 4.28 ERA) and the Mets rebuttal with ace righty Marcus Stroman (9-12, 2.87 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -135 home favorite and St. Louis as + 125 road dog. The public says give the plus money with the Cardinals, who have won three straight and are 5-1 over their last six. However, despite this public support, we've seen the Mets move from -145 to -155. This signals some sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" wiseguy action buying low on New York to bounce back and even up the series. Non-division home favorites are 450-285 (61%) this season. Home favorites who missed the playoffs the previous season are 270-179 (60%). The Mets are 43-29 at home this season, including 33-17 (66%) as a home favorite. St. Louis is 35-36 on the road. Pros are leaning over in this one. The total opened at 8 and the over is juiced up to -120, signaling a possible rise to 8.5. The forecast calls for high 70s with 10 mph winds blowing out to left-center. 

8:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (84-59) at Texas Rangers (53-90)

The Astros crushed the Rangers 15-1 in last night's series opener, cruising easily as a -175 road favorite. In tonight's rematch, Houston starts ace righty Zack Greinke (11-5, 3.66 ERA) and Texas trots out fellow righty Jordan Lyles (8-11, 5.43 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a big -200 road favorite and the Rangers a + 180 home dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves in this one: They're backing the far better team with the better starting pitcher, steaming Houston up from -200 to -215. Big favorites -200 or more are 223-94 (70%) this season. Road favorites coming off a big win of five runs or more are 92-53 (63%). Houston is 52-33 against righties and 70-44 as a favorite. Texas is 29-58 against righties and 44-77 as a dog. The Astros have dominated their division, going 42-21 (67%) against AL West opponents, including 12-4 against the Rangers. Houston will lean on their bats in this one. The Astros are hitting .268, tops in MLB. Texas is hitting .231, which ranks 29th and second to last. 

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