Greetings from Chatham, Mass.! I am on vacation this week spending time with my fiance and family on Cape Cod. No VSiN Market Insights Podcast, but I will still check in all week to report a handful of games receiving sharp action across the market.
Let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games tonight.
6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (67-63) at Cincinnati Reds (71-62)
Both of these NL Central rivals are battling for Wild Card spots. The Reds currently occupy the second Wild Card spot but the Cardinals are on their heels, just 2.5-games back. St. Louis took last night's series opener 3-1, cashing as big + 185 road dogs. The Cardinals are now 3-1 over their last four games while the Reds have dropped three straight. In tonight's rematch, St. Louis hands the ball to righty Miles Mikolas (0-1, 2.70 ERA) and Cincinnati counters with veteran righty Sonny Gray (6-6, 3.91 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as a moderate -140 home favorite and the Cardinals a + 130 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. But pros seem to be buying low on the Reds, steaming Cincinnati up from -140 to -150. Home favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 343-216 (61.4%) this season. The Reds are 43-30 as a favorite. The Cardinals are 26-35 as a dog. Cincinnati will lean on their bats in this one. The Reds are hitting .250, which ranks 6th-best in MLB. The Cardinals are hitting .239, which ranks 18th. Cincinnati is 8-6 against St. Louis this season. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall to 8.5. The forecast calls for low 70s with wind blowing in at 5 MPH. Cory Blaser, the home plate ump, is roughly 54% to the under.
8:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (57-75) at Minnesota Twins (58-73)
This Interleague showdown features a pair of teams who are well out of playoff contention. In tonight's series opener, Chicago hands the ball to righty Zach Davies (6-10, 5.00 ERA) and Minnesota sends out fellow righty John Gant (0-2, 6.75 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a -140 home favorite and the Cubs a + 130 road dog. The public sees two bad teams and isn't very interested in getting down on this game. But pros see an edge with the home favorite Twins, steaming Minnesota up from -140 to -160. Non-division home favorites are 423-265 (61.5%) this season. If they're in the "sweet spot" of -150 to -175 they improve to 91-53 (63.2%). Minnesota is 44-43 against righties. Chicago is 39-55 against righties. The Twins are hitting .242, which ranks 13th in MLB. The Cubs are hitting .231, which ranks 28th. Chicago is just 24-43 on the road. Wiseguys are leaning toward a higher scoring game as the total is 9.5 with the over juiced to -115. Minnesota is 74-49 to the over, one of the best over teams in MLB.
8:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (48-83) at Chicago White Sox (76-56)
This Interleague matchup is as lopsided as it gets. The Pirates sit in last place in NL Central and own the 4th-worst record in MLB. Meanwhile, the White Sox lead the AL Central by double-digit games and are poised for a deep postseason run. In tonight's series opener, Pittsburgh taps righty Bryse Wilson (2-5, 4.35 ERA) and Chicago counters with fellow righty Lucas Giolito (9-9, 3.68 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a hefty -250 home favorite and the Pirates a + 225 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. Despite the expensive price, they're backing the far superior team at home, steaming Chicago up from -250 to -300. Big home favorites -200 or more are 165-64 (72.1%) this season. Interleague favorites -200 or more are 20-8 (71%). Chicago is 64-35 as a favorite, including 39-21 (65%) as home favorites. Pittsburgh is 42-79 as a dog. The White Sox are 54-41 against righties. The Pirates are just 37-53 against righties.
Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.