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Tuesday MLB Sharp Report (8-17)

August 17, 2021 12:47 AM

Today, we have a loaded slate of 16 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for several MLB games tonight...

7:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (63-54) at Washington Nationals (50-68)

These Interleague foes are trending in opposite directions. The Blue Jays are 13-6 over their last 19 games and are just 4-games back of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. Meanwhile, the Nats sold off all of their big pieces at the deadline and have now lost seven straight. Washington is just 1-12 over their last 13 games. In tonight's series opener, Toronto hands the ball to righty Alek Manoah (5-1, 2.59 ERA) and Washington counters with fellow righty Erick Fedde (4-8, 5.12 ERA). This line opened with the Blue Jays listed as a -175 road favorite and the Nats a + 160 home dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the big chalk number. They're fading the struggling Nats and steaming the Jays up from -175 to -190. Road favorites coming off a big win of 5-runs or more are 79-42 (65.3%) this season. Interleague favorites -175 or higher are 32-14 (69.6%). Toronto is 41-31 as a favorite. The Nats are 19-50 as a dog. Toronto is 48-37 against righties. The Nats are 37-45 against righties. The Jays are + 127 in run differential. The Nats are -57. 

7:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (38-79) at Tampa Bay Rays (72-47)

The Rays took care of business in last night's series opener, winning 9-2 as heavy -245 home favorites. The sinking Orioles have now lost 12-straight games. Meanwhile, the Rays sit atop the AL East with a 3.5-game lead over the second place Red Sox. In tonight's rematch, Baltimore starts lefty John Means (5-4, 3.21 ERA) and Tampa Bay sends out righty Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 3.81 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -175 home favorite and Baltimore a + 160 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They are happy to fade the bottoming out Orioles, driving the Rays up from -175 to -190. Home favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 315-190 (62.4%) this season. Tampa Bay is 36-22 at home. Baltimore is 21-42 on the road. The Rays are 47-26 as a favorite, including 30-14 (68.2%) as a home favorite. The Orioles are 35-71 as a dog. Tampa Bay is 26-21 against lefties. Baltimore is 23-50 against righties. The Rays have had the Orioles' number this season, going 12-1 head-to-head. 

7:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (72-47) at St. Louis Cardinals (61-56)

These NL Central rivals are separated by ten games in the division standings, with the Brewers sitting comfortably in first place. The Brewers just took two of three at the Pirates and are now 6-1 over their last seven games. The Cardinals are also riding a hot hand, having just swept the Royals to earn their sixth straight victory. In tonight's series opener, Milwaukee hands the ball to ace righty Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.23 ERA) and St. Louis rebuttals with veteran righty Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.27 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -135 road favorite and the Cardinals a + 125 home dog. The public is torn and doesn't know who to back. But wiseguys are getting down on the first place Brewers with their ace on the bump, steaming Milwaukee up from -135 to -150. Teams receiving 15-cents or more steam coming off a win are 205-135 (60.3%) this season. Milwaukee also has value as a favorite with a low total (7). The fewer amount of expected runs scored, the more likely they are to come from the "better" team. The Brewers are 54-36 as a favorite. The Cardinals are 24-33 as a dog. Milwaukee is + 113 in run differential. St. Louis is -21. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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