Tuesday MLB Sharp Report (8-10)

August 10, 2021 01:34 AM

Today we have a loaded slate of 17 MLB games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for several MLB games tonight.

7:05 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (54-60) at Baltimore Orioles (38-72)

Both of these non-division foes have struggled as of late. The Tigers just dropped two of three against the Indians. Meanwhile, the Orioles have lost five straight and just got swept by the Rays. In tonight's series opener, Detroit hands the ball to righty Casey Mize (6-6, 3.57 ERA) and Baltimore counters with lefty Keegan Akin (0-5, 7.66 ERA). This line opened with the Tigers listed as a short -110 road favorite and the Orioles a + 100 home dog. The public sees the putrid record of the Orioles and is happy to fade Baltimore. However, despite the vast majority of bets backing the Tigers, we've seen the Orioles flip from a + 100 dog to a -110 home favorite. This signals wiseguy reverse line movement on the Birds. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 221-137 (61.7%) this season. Short home favorites -140 or less are 267-199 (57.3%). 

7:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (50-62) at New York Mets (56-55)

This is a crucial series for the Mets, who just got swept by the Phillies and are now 2-8 over their last ten games. New York has fallen out of first place in the NL East and now trails division leading Philadelphia by 2.5-games. The Mets are now + 275 dogs to win the division. Meanwhile, the Nats have also struggled, going just 1-6 over their last seven games. Washington sold off most of their top players at the deadline. In tonight's series opener, the Nats start righty Paolo Espino (3-3, 3.66 ERA) and the Mets rebuttal with veteran Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 3.24 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a hefty -205 home favorite and the Nats a + 185 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. But pros have sided with the Mets, steaming the chalk home favorite from -205 to -230. Home favorites -200 or more are 120-49 (71%) this season. Home favorites -150 or more coming off a day off are 50-28 (64.1%). The Mets are 38-29 as a favorite. The Nats are 19-44 as a dog. New York has gone 44-32 against righties. Washington is just 37-41 against righties. The Mets are 33-20 at home, including 26-15 as a home favorite. The Nats are 21-32 on the road. 

7:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (68-44) at Boston Red Sox (65-49)

These AL East rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Rays just swept the Orioles and are now 8-2 over their last ten games. On the flip side, the struggling Red Sox just lost three of four to the Blue Jays and are now just 2-9 over their last 11 games. Tampa Bay leads the AL East by four games over Boston. The Rays are -145 favorites to win the division. The Red Sox are + 250. In tonight's series opener, Tampa Bay hands the ball to righty Luis Patino (2-3, 4.42 ERA) and Boston trots out lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (8-6, 5.33 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a -125 home favorite and the Rays a + 115 road dog. Sharps have jumped on Tampa Bay getting plus money, driving the Rays down from + 115 to + 105. The Rays have value as a divisional dog and a dog with a high total (9.5). Tampa is + 121 in run differential this season. Boston is + 33. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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