Tuesday MLB Sharp Report (5-25)

May 25, 2021 12:50 AM

Bettors have a loaded menu of sweats to choose from today, including 15 MLB games, 2 NBA playoff games and 2 NHL playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

7:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (23-23) at New York Yankees (28-19)

These AL East rivals are trending in completely opposite directions. The Blue Jays are in a tailspin and have lost six straight games. Meanwhile, the Yankees are red-hot and have won six straight. In tonight's series opener, the Jays start lefty Steven Matz (5-2, 4.69 ERA) and the Yankees counter with veteran righty Corey Kluber (4-2, 2.86 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a relatively hefty -155 home favorite and Toronto a + 145 road dog. Pros and Joes both seem to be riding the hot hand as we've seen heavy action steam New York from -155 to -170. The Yankees have value as a team coming off a win receiving at least 15-cents of line movement in their favor (57-41, 58% this season). The Yankees also enjoy a rest advantage, coming off a day off while the Jays played yesterday. Favorites with a day off against teams playing a back-to-back are 25-18 (55%) this season. We could also be looking at a higher-scoring game in this one. The total is 9 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability. The forecast calls for high 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.

8:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (29-18) at Houston Astros (26-21)

This Interleague showdown is a rematch of the 2017 World Series, which Houston won in seven games. The Dodgers just swept the Giants to extend their win streak to seven straight games. Los Angeles is now 11-1 over their last twelve games. On the flip side, Houston just got swept on the road at Texas. In tonight's series opener, the Dodgers send out ace Clayton Kershaw (6-3, 3.18 ERA) and the Astros counter with fellow ace Zack Greinke (4-1, 3.77 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short -120 road favorite and Houston a + 110 home dog. The public is all over the red-hot Dodgers laying a short price. However, despite this lopsided support the Dodgers have fallen from -120 to -114. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the home dog Astros (+ 110 to + 104). Interleague teams receiving line movement in their favor are 42-29 (59%) this season. The Astros will lean on their bats in this one. Houston is hitting .270, best in MLB. The over is taking in some action. The total opened at 8 and the over is juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise to 8.5. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Dodgers 24-22-1 and the Astros 29-17-1.

8:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (26-21) at Chicago White Sox (27-19)

The White Sox took last night's series opener 5-1, cashing as -175 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Cardinals hand the ball to young stud ace Jack Flaherty (8-0, 2.53 ERA) and the White Sox tap fellow ace Lucas Giolito (3-4, 4.35 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -130 home favorite and St. Louis a + 120 road dog. The public can't believe they're getting plus-money with the undefeated Flaherty and is rushing to the window to back the Cardinals. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Chicago move from -130 to -140. Essentially, Chicago is becoming more of a favorite despite the Cardinals being the popular play. This indicates sharp "fade the trendy dog" value on the White Sox to make it two wins in a row against Tony La Russa's former team. Home teams receiving 10-cents or more of steam against non-division opponents are 60-40 (60%) this season. The total is 8 with some shops juicing up the under to -115. Interleague unders are 42-30 (58%) this season. The White Sox are 22-12 as a favorite this season. St. Louis is 12-13 as a dog.

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