Tuesday MLB Sharp Report (5-18)

May 18, 2021 12:54 AM

I am coming to you live from the beautiful South Point Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas! I just flew in last night from Boston and luckily I got to watch the Bruins beat the Caps in overtime on the plane. I will be in Vegas for a week, filling in for Michael Lombardi and co-hosting live shows at the VSiN studios. If you happen to be in town, stop by and say hello! I would love to talk betting and sweat some sharp contrarian plays together. I am also taking recommendations for your favorite bars, restaurants, sportsbooks and fun things to do in Sin City. Send tips my way: josh@vsin.com

Now we turn to Tuesday, where bettors have a loaded betting menu to choose from, including 15 MLB games, 2 NBA playoff play-in games and 3 NHL playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action.

6:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (25-16) at Cincinnati Reds (19-20)

The Giants came up bigly for sharps in last night's series opener, winning 6-3 as + 115 road dogs. San Francisco originally opened at + 135 but got steamed down roughly 20-cents. In tonight's rematch, the Giants hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (3-1, 2.14 ERA) and the Reds counter with Luis Castillo (1-5, 7.71 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a short -120 home favorite and San Francisco a + 110 road dog. Sharps see a pitching advantage for the road team and are going back to the well with San Francisco, as we've seen the Giants move from + 110 down to + 105. The Giants have value as a dog off a win, a road dog with a line move in their favor and a dog with a high total (8.5). San Francisco is 11-7 as a dog this season. The Giants are + 36 in run differential this season. Cincinnati is -1.

7:37 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (25-17) at Toronto Blue Jays (22-17)

This showdown features the top two teams in the AL East. Both enter on a hot streak, with the Red Sox 6-4 their last ten and the Jays 7-3. In tonight's series opener, the Red Sox give the nod to lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (5-1, 4.15 ERA) and the Jays start fellow southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu (3-2, 2.95 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -140 home favorite and Boston a + 130 road dog. The public is split down the middle and don't know who to take. But sharps seem to be leaning on the Red Sox as we've seen Boston move from + 130 to + 120. The Red Sox have value as a road divisional dog and a dog with a high total (9). Boston is an incredible 9-1 as a dog this year. The Sox are also 12-5 on the road and 9-4 against lefties. Despite both teams possessing powerful offenses, we've seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 9.5 to 9. The weather could be a big reason why: the forecast calls for low 80s with 15-20 MPH winds blowing in from left-center. Both teams have been slightly profitable to the under, with Boston 22-19-1 and Toronto 21-18.

7:45 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (17-23) at St. Louis Cardinals (23-18)

This NL Central matchup features the team at the top of the division against the team at the bottom. The Pirates sit in last place but managed to earn a four-game series split against the Giants. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are licking their wounds after just getting swept by the Padres. In tonight's series opener, the Pirates start righty JT Brubaker (3-2, 2.58 ERA) and the Cardinals send out fellow righty John Gant (2-3, 1.83 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -140 home favorite and Pittsburgh a + 130 road dog. The public sees an easy win with the Cardinals and they're rushing to the window to lay the chalk with St. Louis. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen St. Louis fall from -140 to -125. This signals some sharp reverse line movement grabbing the plus money with the Pirates (+ 130 to + 115). The Pirates are one of the top contrarian plays of the day and also have value as a road divisional dog.

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