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Tuesday MLB Sharp Report (4-6)

April 6, 2021 12:33 AM

Baylor (+ 4.5) shocked Gonzaga 86-70 to win the NCAA National Championship on Monday night. The Bears cashed + 175 on the moneyline and denied Gonzaga the first undefeated season since 1975-76. Sharps were leaning on Baylor from the start as we saw the Bears open at + 5 and fall to + 4.5. Some books even touched 4 at times. Essentially all liability was on the Baylor side. 

With Baylor's win and cover, NCAA Tournament dogs finish March Madness with a profitable 37-29 ATS (56%) record. Short dogs + 5 or less went 14-8 ATS (64%), Dogs in which the line stayed the same or moved in their favor went 21-14 ATS (60%). Slow pace dogs went 26-21 ATS (55%). 

The under also cashed in the National Championship Game. The total opened at 160 and fell to 159 despite a majority of bettors taking the over. This was a classic example of sharp reverse line movement on the under. The game landed on 156. Unders finish the NCAA Tournament 38-26 (59%). If the total was 140 or higher the under went 18-10 (64%). If the total was 150 or more the under went 7-2 (78%). If the total stayed the same or fell the under went 28-17 (62%). 

Dogs and unders were the smart bet in March Madness. Once again, it proved to be a great time to go contrarian due to the influx of public betting and casual bias toward favorites and overs.

College Basketball may be over, but we still have 14 MLB games, 8 NBA games and 9 NHL games to choose on Tuesday. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12:30 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 p.m. ET to 5 p.m. ET. . 

In the meantime, let's discuss how the money is flowing for several MLB games today...

4:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (0-3) vs Washington Nationals (0-0)

This NL East matchup features a winless Braves team that just got swept by the Phillies against a Nationals team making its season debut after being delayed due to positive COVID tests. The Braves will start lefty Drew Smyly (0-1, 3.42 ERA in 2020) while the Nats counter with ace Max Scherzer (5-4, 3.74 ERA). This line opened with Washington listed as a -125 home favorite. Respected money has jumped on the underdog Braves, dropping Atlanta from + 115 to + 105. The Braves have value as a divisional dog (19-18, 51%) this season). Sharps may be leaning on the Braves here because they have three games under their belt while the Nats are still recovering from COVID positives. 

 

6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (2-2) vs Miami Marlins (1-3)

The Cardinals took last night's series opener 4-1, cashing as short + 100 road dogs. In today's game two, St. Louis will tap righty John Gant (0-0, 2.40 ERA in 2020) and the Marlins will send out ace Sandy Alcantara, who pitched on opening day and went 6 innings giving up no runs and striking out 7 against the Rays. This line opened with both teams listed as a virtual pick'em at -105. We've seen wiseguys get down on the Fish, driving Miami up to -115 or -120 favorite. Teams with a line move of 10-cents or more in their favor are 13-8 (62%) so far this season. Sharps targeted this under as well. They immediately hit the under 8 when it opened. This forced oddsmakers to shift the total down to 7.5. 

8:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (3-1) vs Texas Rangers (1-3)

The Jays took Game 1 of the series on Monday, winning 6-2 as -148 road favorites. In today's rematch Toronto will start veteran Tanner Roark (2-3, 6.80 ERA in 2020) and Texas will counter with Dane Dunning (2-0, 3.97 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a short -120 road favorite. Respected money has steamed the Jays, driving Toronto up to -130. Some books are touching -135. Teams with a line move of 10-cents or more in their favor are 13-8 (62%) this season. The Jays are + 5 in run differential this season. The Rangers are -11. There also looks to be some over liability as the total is 9.5 with the over juiced to -120. Keep an eye on the roof at Globe Life Field. If it remains open, the weather could really benefit the over as the wind is projected to blow out to left center at 20 MPH. 

 

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