Tuesday MLB Sharp Report (4-27)

April 27, 2021 01:20 AM

Bettors are graced with another stacked menu today, including 15 MLB games, 6 NBA games and 8 NHL games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss a few MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

6:35 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (14-7) at Pittsburgh Pirates (11-11)

Both of these small market clubs have been pleasant surprises to start the season. The Royals sit in first place in the AL Central and are riding a five-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Pirates just took two of three on the road against the Twins. Pittsburgh is 5-2 over their last seven games. In tonight's series opener, the Royals start righty Jake Junis (1-0, 3.71 ERA) while the Pirates counter with lefty Tyler Anderson (2-2, 3.92 ERA). This line opened at a pick'em with both sides listed at -105. We've seen respected money lean with the red-hot Royals, pushing Kansas up from -105 to -110. So far this season Interleague favorites are 19-15 (56%). Road Interleague favorites are even better (11-5, 69%). Kansas City also has value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored is more likely to come from the "better" team. The Royals are 5-3 against lefties this season, 7-2 as favorites and 6-2 on the road. 

7:07 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (8-11) at Toronto Blue Jays (10-11)

These Interleague foes are both below .500 but trending in opposite directions. The Nats just dropped two of three on the road against the Mets while the Jay just took two of three on the road against the Rays. In tonight's series opener, the Nats start veteran ace Max Scherzer 1-1. 1.80 ERA) and the Jays trot out righty Trent Thornton (0-0, 1.86 ERA). This line opened with Washington listed as a -140 road favorite and the Jays a + 130 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to back Scherzer, yet we've seen the Nats fall from -140 to -132. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Jays, with pros seeing value on Toronto as a home dog (+ 130 to + 123). Dogs with a line move in their favor have a 4% ROI this season. Dogs off a win have a 5% ROI. The Jays are + 11 in run differential this season. The Nats are -24, worst in the National League. Injuries could play a factor here. The Nats are already missing star slugger Juan Soto and shortstop Trea Turner is questionable with an arm injury. Meanwhile, the Jays may finally see George Springer make his debut. The total is 8.5. The forecast calls for 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from left center. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season. Washington is 12-6-1 to the under. The Jays are 15-6 to the under. 

7:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (14-9) at New York Mets (9-8)

This Interleague showdown features a pair of teams in first place in their respective divisions. The Red Sox just split a four-game series at home against the Mariners while the Mets just took two of three at home against the Nats. In tonight's series opener, the Red Sox hand the ball to veteran righty Garrett Richards (0-2, 6.48 ERA) and the Mets send out lefty David Peterson (1-2, 6.75 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -140 home favorite. We've seen the Mets fall from -140 to -134, signaling some respected money backing Boston as a plus money dog (+ 130 to + 124). The Red Sox have value as a dog with a high total (9). Historically, high totals have benefited dogs as the more expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. Boston is also a dog off a win (5% ROI this season), a road dog (14% ROI) and a sweet spot dog + 140 or less (9% ROI). Boston is + 20 in run differential. The Mets are -11. Boston is 6-1 as a dog and 6-1 on the road this season. 

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