Tuesday Elite 8 Sharp Report for USC-Gonzaga and UCLA-Michigan

March 30, 2021 12:52 AM

Elite 8 dogs and favorites split 1-1 ATS on Monday, with Oregon State (+ 8) losing 67-61 but covering against Houston and Baylor (-7.5) beating and covering against Arkansas 81-72. We also saw over/unders go 1-1. Today we have two more Elite 8 matchups to get down on. Here are the updated futures odds to cut down the nets at BetMGM.

Gonzaga + 125

Baylor + 300

Houston + 500

Michigan + 600

USC + 1400

UCLA + 2500

We also have updated odds on the NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player

Kispert + 400

Suggs + 500

Timme + 600

Butler + 600

Ayayi + 800

Grimes + 800

Teague + 1000

Mitchell + 1200

Dickinson + 1600

Wagner + 2000

Brooks + 2500

Juzang + 3000

Mobley + 3000

Campbell + 5000

In the meantime, let's dive into how the money is flowing for tonight's two Elite 8 matchups...

7:15 p.m. ET: USC vs Gonzaga

This West Region showdown features 6-seed USC (25-7) against 1-seed Gonzaga (29-0). USC has won and covered in every NCAA Tournament game, beating 11-seed Drake 72-56, 3-seed Kansas 85-51 and 7-seed Oregon 82-68. Now they face undefeated Gonzaga, who has also won and covered every Madness game to this point, beating 16-seed Norfolk State 98-55, 8-seed Oklahoma 87-71 and 5-seed Creighton 83-65. This line opened with Gonzaga listed as a 9-point favorite. The public is once again rushing to the window to lay the points with Gonzaga. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line remain frozen at 9 or even dip to 8.5 at some shops. This signals sharp liability and reverse line movement on USC, with pros grabbing the points not laying them. Ken Pom has Gonzaga winning by 7 points, which provides actionable value on USC at the current number. We've also seen sharp money hit this under, dropping the total from 155 to 153. March Madness unders are 35-24 (59%). When the total is 140 or higher, Madness unders are 16-9 (64%) this NCAA Tournament.

9:57 p.m. ET: UCLA vs Michigan

This East Region matchup pits 11-seed UCLA (21-9) against 1-seed Michigan (23-4). UCLA is the only team to be 4-0 in the NCAA Tournament, beating 11-seed Michigan State 86-80 in the first four game, then taking down 6-seed BYU 73-62, 14-seed Abilene Christian 67-47 and upsetting 2-seed Alabama 88-78. Meanwhile, Michigan has crushed 16-seed Texas Southern 82-66, 8-seed LSU 86-78 and 4-seed Florida State 76-58. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 7.5-point favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on UCLA, dropping this line from 7.5 to 6.5. Madness dogs in which the line stays the same or moves in their favor are 19-12 (61%) this NCAA Tournament. Ken Pom has Michigan winning by five points, which provides actionable value on UCLA plus the points. Respected money has also hit this under, dropping the total from 137 to 135.5. Unders in which the line stays the same or falls are 25-16 (61%) this NCAA Tournament.

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