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Tuesday College Hoops Sharp Report for Akron-Ohio, Bowling Green-EMU, Illinois-MSU and Ole Miss-Mizzou

February 23, 2021 01:09 AM

Today, we have a loaded betting menu filled with 25-plus college basketball games, 9 NBA games and 6 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. 

Until then, let's take a look at a few college hoops games today receiving notable sharp action...

2 p.m. ET: Akron at Ohio

This MAC showdown is one of the early afternoon games on Tuesday's slate. Akron (14-4) is red-hot, winning four straight and ten of their last 11. Ohio (11-6) is also playing well as of late, winning their last four games. This line opened with Ohio listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money seems to be grabbing the points with road dog Akron, as the line is inching down to 2 at some books. Ken Pom has Ohio winning the game by one point, which means Akron + 1.5 or better has actionable value. Akron also has value as a short road conference dog with a line move in their favor. Ken Pom has Akron ranked 91st in the country and Ohio 108th. One variable to keep in mind here: Ohio is returning from a COVID pause and may be rusty or sluggish. The Bobcats haven't played since Feb. 2. 

7 p.m. ET: Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan

More MACtion! Bowling Green (12-9) has turned it around as of late. After losing six straight games, the Falcons have now won two straight. On the flip side, Eastern Michigan (4-9) has lost five straight and they've had 10 games canceled due to COVID. This line opened with Bowling Green listed as an 8-point road favorite. We've seen this line drop to 7.5. This movement may seem small, but it's significant because this is such a low-bet game. The public has little to no interest in this one, so we can reasonably assume that this movement was caused by pro bettors who have an edge based on their power ratings. Ken Pom has Bowling Green winning by seven, which means the hook (+ 7.5) with Eastern Michigan presents some value. 

7 p.m. ET: Illinois at Michigan State

This Big Ten showdown looks like an easy one on paper. Illinois (16-5, ranked 5th) has won seven straight games and has beaten their opponents by an average of 13 points throughout the season. Meanwhile, Michigan State (11-9) has struggled to gain any traction all year, but the Spartans just upset Indiana 78-71 their last time out, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Illinois listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Illinois. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line tumble from 7 to 6.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement grabbing Michigan State plus the points. The Spartans are the #1 contrarian play of the night and have value as a home unranked conference dog against a ranked opponent. Michigan State also has value as a buy low "bad" ATS team (5-15) against a sell high "good" ATS team (13-8). Ken Pom has Illinois winning this game by nine, so it seems like sharps are much more bullish on Sparty than the advanced analytics predict. 

9 p.m. ET: Mississippi at Missouri

These SEC rivals both snapped streaks their last time out. Mississippi (12-9) is coming off a 66-56 loss to Mississippi State, which snapped a four-game winning streak. Meanwhile, Missouri (14-6, ranked 24th) just crushed South Carolina 93-78, which snapped a three game losing skid. This line opened with Missouri listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public would normally hammer the ranked home favorite in this spot, but we're actually seeing recreational bettors somewhat undecided on whether to grab the points or lay them. However, pros seems to be siding with Missouri as this line has jumped up from -3.5 to -4. Ken Pom has Missouri winning by four points, which is right on the number. He has Missouri ranked 45th and Ole Miss 60th. Missouri is 8-2 at home and Ole Miss is 4-5 on the road. SEC home favorites in conference play have won at a 65% clip this season. Missouri is -180 on the moneyline. 

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