Tuesday College Football Sharp Report: Bowling Green-Toledo and Ohio-Ball State

November 15, 2022 01:53 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For an extensive breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for tonight's College Football doubleheader...


7 p.m. ET: Bowling Green at Toledo (-15.5, 50)

Bowling Green (5-5) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end last week, falling to Kent State 40-6 and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Toledo (7-3) has won two straight and five of their last six. Toledo just beat Ball State 28-21 but failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. This line opened with Toledo listed as a 14.5-point home favorite. The public is relatively split and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite these even bet splits, we've seen Toledo creep up from -14.5 to -15.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this line move was caused by respected money laying the points with the home favorite. Toledo is only receiving 50% of bets but 62% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Toledo holds a big edge offensively, averaging 35 PPG compared to just 22 PPG for Bowling Green. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 51 to 50. This is notable because 74% of bets are going over, yet the total fell, indicating sharp under money. Bowling Green is 4-1 to the under their last five games. The forecast calls for high 30s with slight 5 MPH winds and possibly some light rain. 


7 p.m. ET: Ohio (-4, 55) at Ball State

Ohio (7-3) is riding a five-game win streak and just took down Miami Ohio 37-21, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, Ball State (5-5) has dropped two of their last three games and just fell to Toledo 28-21 but covered as 14-point road dogs. This line opened with Ohio listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they're laying the points with Ohio. However, we've actually seen this line remain frozen at 4 and even briefly dip to 3.5 at times. This signals sharp money grabbing the points with the contrarian home dog. Ball State is only receiving 35% of bets but 45% of money, a sharp discrepancy in their favor. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one, as the total has been steamed up from 53 to 55. Currently 70% of bets are 80% of money is on the over, indicating both "Pro and Joe" over support. Ohio is 7-3 to the over this season. Ball State is 7-3 to the under. The forecast calls for mis 30s with moderate 5 MPH winds and possibly some light rain. 

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