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Tuesday College Basketball Sharp Report

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Today March Madness officially begins with a pair of First Four matchups, plus the opening round of the NIT along with 4 NBA games and 11 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

One thing to keep an eye out for tonight: First Four unders. Over the past decade, First Four unders are 23-13 (64%). This thanks in large part to the quick turnaround, neutral court and heightened spotlight and pressure of being the first games of the Tournament. 

Here are tonight's matches

Texas A&M CC-Texas Southern Under 136

Indiana-Wyoming Under 132.5

Now let's discuss several College Basketball games receiving big money from respected bettors today...

 

7 p.m. ET: Missouri State vs Oklahoma

This is the first round of the NIT. Missouri State (23-10 SU, 17-16 ATS) just fell to Drake 79-78 in overtime of the MVC semifinals, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Oklahoma (18-15 SU, 17-16 ATS) just lost a heartbreaker to Texas Tech 56-55 in the Big 12 semifinals but covered as 7.5-point dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 6.5-point home favorite (yes Oklahoma is at home due to NIT rules). Despite the home court advantage, we've seen Oklahoma fall from 6.5 to 6, signaling pro money grabbing road dog Missouri State plus the hook. Ken Pom has Oklahoma winning by five points (75-70), which provides a slight edge to Missouri State  6. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 139 to 138. 

 

9:10 p.m. ET: Indiana vs Wyoming

This is the second First Four matchup of the night and features a pair of 12-seeds looking to advance to the Round of 64. Indiana (20-13 SU, 19-14 ATS) has an impressive run in the Big Ten Tournament, upsetting Michigan and Illinois before falling to Iowa in the semifinals 80-77 but covering as 6-point dogs. Meanwhile, Wyoming (25-8 SU, 17-13-2 ATS) just fell to Boise State 68-61 in the Mountain West semifinals, failing to cover as 3-point dogs. This game opened with Indiana listed as a 3.5-point neutral court favorite. The public is riding the Hoosiers after their deep underdog run in the conference tournament, driving Indiana up from -3.5 to -4. At this point, Wyoming offers buy-low value as an inflated contrarian dog in a heavily bet game. Ken Pom has Indiana winning by just one point (67-66), which means Wyoming plus the points offers actionable value based on the advanced analytics. 

 

11 p.m. ET: Santa Clara vs Washington State

This late night clash in the first round of the NIT. Santa Clara (21-11 SU, 19-11-2 ATS) just fell to Saint Mary's 75-72 in the WCC semifinals but covered as 4.5-point dogs. Similarly, Washington State (19-14 SU, 13-20 ATS) just lost to UCLA 75-65 in the Pac 12 quarterfinals, failing to cover as 8.5-point dogs. This line opened with Washington State listed as a 3-point favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk, steaming Washington State up from -3 to -3.5. Ken Pom has Washington State winning by five points (79-74). This is a true home game for Washington State due to NIT rules. Washington State also has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team (13-20) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (19-11). We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 151 to 150. Washington State is 18-13 to the under this season, including 12-6 to the under at home. 

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