Tuesday CFB Sharp Report: Bowling Green-Ohio and Ball State-Miami Ohio

November 21, 2022 11:20 PM
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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for tonight's MACtion doubleheader...

 

7 p.m. ET: Bowling Green at Ohio (-6.5, 55)

Bowling Green (6-5) has won four of their last five games and just upset Toledo 42-35, winning outright as 14.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Toledo (8-3) has won six straight games and just brushed aside Ball State 32-18, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Ohio listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with Ohio. However, despite receiving 73% of bets, Ohio has fallen from -7 to -6.5. This signals smart money grabbing the points with road dog Bowling Green. MACtion dogs are 29-12 ATS (71%) this season. Bowling Green also has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team (4-6-1) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (8-3). We've also seen some respected money hit the under. It opened at 56 and has fallen to 55 despite 60% of bets taking the over, signaling sharp reverse line movement on a lower scoring game. The under is receiving 40% of bets but 64% of money, a notable wiseguy bet discrepancy. One notable injury to monitor is is Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke, who left the last game and is questionable for tonight. 

 

7 p.m. ET: Ball State at Miami Ohio (-3, 44)

Ball State (5-6) has lost three of their last four games and just fell to Ohio 32-18, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, Miami Ohio (5-6) has won two of their last three games and just took down Northern Illinois 29-23, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami Ohio listed as a 3-point home favorite. We've seen this line remain frozen at 3. However, some books are juicing up the Ball State +3 to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 2.5. Miami Ohio is receiving 64% of bets and 77% of money. If this line falls to 2.5, it will be interesting to see if Miami Ohio gets hit with sharp buyback after falling below the key number. We've also seen the total fall from 44.5 to 44, indicating some respected money leaning under. This drop is notable because 74% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. Both teams are 8-3 to the under this season. 

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