MLB’s league championship series begin this weekend, leaving just four teams to vie for the 2021 title. Just as I did in last week’s issue for the division series, let’s analyze the key betting results from recent LCS rounds to see if we can uncover anything to help us cash tickets this year.
Series Results Since 2000
— There have been 42 championship series since 2000, and better seeds are just 24-18 (58 percent). For the division series, this percentage was 51.2percent .
— Just like last round, there is a decent break in success level for the better seeds when they won at least eight games more than their opponents in the regular season. Their record in those series is 7-4 for 64 percent.
Game Results Since 2000
— In the 20 years of LCS games before last season’s neutral-site contests, home teams had gone 130-95 for 58 percent. The unit edge for bettors on home teams over road teams has been + 9.95 to -20.85.
— Unders have held a decent edge on Overs in terms of LCS totals, with Unders going 236-214 for 53 percent since 2000. However, neither side of the total has been profitable on units in that time, with Unders producing -3.1 units and Overs -41 units.
— Betting favorites of -190 or higher in the LCS round have given a -48 percent return on investment, as they are just 9-8 for -8.1 units since 2000.
— If you’re a chalk bettor and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range. They are 52-18 (75 percent) for + 23.45 units since 2000, a ROI of 34 percent.
— Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall, though, going 104-124 (46 percent) for + 9.15 units since 2000.