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Trends in college, NFL games this week

By Bruce Marshall  () 

COLLEGE

 

ARKANSAS STATE at APPALACHIAN STATE

App 0-3 vs. line this year, all as favorite. Now on 2-7 skid as chalk. Red Wolves 4-2 as dogs since 2019 and 2-0 this year. Tech edge: Arkansas State, based on recent trends.

TULSA at SOUTH FLORIDA

Tulsa on 6-2 spread run since late 2019. In USF’s last five games against FCS foes before last week vs. Temple, it has not been closer than 21 points (1-4 vs. line). Bulls 2-9 vs. spread last 11 vs. FCS foes at Raymond James Stadium. Tech edge: Tulsa, based on team trends. 

LOUISIANA at UAB

Ragin’ Cajuns have cooled vs. line, just 1-3 in 2020 after Coastal Carolina loss, now 1-6 last seven against spread. All after 16-4-2 spread surge previously under Billy Napier but 7-2-1 last 10 as dogs. UAB no covers last three at home after 14-3-1 spread uptick as host. Tech edge: Slight to Louisiana, if dog, based on team trends. 

ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN

Home team has covered last four in series, including big Illini upset in 2019. But Illini were 6-1 as Big Ten dogs in 2019 and Badgers 2-6 as Big Ten home chalk since 2018. Tech edge: Slight to Illinois, based on recent trends.

GEORGIA TECH at BOSTON COLLEGE

Tech 2-3 vs. line in 2020 and 5-11-1 overall vs. points since Geoff Collins arrived last year. Jackets 2-2 as dogs this season. BC 3-2 vs. line for Jeff Hafley. Dog team 15-4-1 last 20 regular-season Eagles games. BC also 1-6 last seven as chalk. Tech edge: Slight to Georgia Tech, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at LOUISVILLE

FSU has covered last two but still just 15-26-2 vs. spread since 2017, 4-10 against points last 14 away from Tallahassee. Cards 3-1 last four vs. line in series, though FSU did cover in 2019. Scott Satterfield only 2-2-1 vs. line this year but 22-9-1 vs. line at App State and Louisville since late 2017. Tech edge: Louisville, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME at PITT

Irish 11-7 vs. spread since 2019 (1-3 this year) but only 2-3-1 last six as visiting chalk. Before Miami last week (with spread result depending on when game was bet), Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi 8-3 last 11 as dog, 5-2 last seven as home dog. Panthers 4-1-1 vs. points in series since 2010. Last meeting in 2018. Tech edge: Pitt, based on team trends.

ALABAMA at TENNESSEE

Last Vols SU win in series was 2006, final year of Mike Shula era at Alabama. Nick Saban has covered nine of 13 meetings since and is 6-3 last nine vs. spread as SEC visitor. UT did cover last five as dog in 2019 but dropped first 2020 game in role against Georgia. Tech edge: Bama, based on series trends. 

NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA

UNC has covered last three in series. Tar Heels on 6-1 SU, 5-2 spread run since late 2019. Heels 6-2-1 vs. line last nine at Chapel Hill. NC State has started quickly at 4-1 SU and vs. line in 2020, including 3-0 as dog after going 0-5 as dog for Dave Doeren last season. Tech edge: UNC, based on extended trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at WAKE FOREST

Wake has covered last two as home dog but was 0-5 in role in 2018 for Dave Clawson. Deacons 8-2 vs. spread last 10 at Winston-Salem. Hokies no covers last four away from Blacksburg (0-2 this season). Home team has covered last six regular-season Va Tech games. Tech edge: Wake Forest, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE at CLEMSON

Syracuse just 2-5 vs. line last seven on road but has covered four of last six vs. Dabo Swinney. Orange 1-4 last five as double-digit dogs. Clemson has covered last two big in 2020, now 8-1 vs. line last nine as Death Valley ACC chalk. Tech edge: Clemson, based on team trends. 

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at COASTAL CAROLINA

Coastal on five-game SU win streak after Louisiana triumph. Chanticleers 10-5 last 15 vs. spread after win over Ragin’ Cajuns. Eagles 7-11 vs. spread last 18 since late 2018. Tech edge: Coastal, based on recent trends. 

VIRGINIA at MIAMI

Cavs 9-4 as dogs since 2018, 7-3 last 10 as dogs away from Charlottesville. Miami won and covered 2019 meeting after UVa had won and covered previous two. Before Pitt last week, Manny Diaz had covered four of last five as host after covering just four of previous 10 at Hard Rock. Tech edge: Slight to Virginia, based on team trends.

TULANE at UCF

Tulane 12-7 vs. line since late 2018 after cover vs. SMU. UCF on 4-10 spread downturn since early 2019, failing to cover last year vs. Wave. Knights 1-4 last five vs. spread as hosts. Tech edge: Slight to Tulane, based on team trends. 

HOUSTON at NAVY

Navy a bit erratic this season but is 7-2 vs. points last nine at Annapolis. Ken Niumatalolo also 2-1 as dog in 2020 and 8-5-1 last 14 in role. Tech edge: Slight to Navy, based on team trends.

PENN STATE at INDIANA

Hoosiers have covered last two meetings, though James Franklin 4-1 vs. spread on Big Ten road in 2019. IU 6-3 vs. spread last nine at Bloomington but has covered only one of last five openers. Tech edge: Slight to Indiana, based on team trends. 

RUTGERS at MICHIGAN STATE

Greg Schiano debuts at Rutgers for second time. Also Mel Tucker’s MSU debut. Scarlet Knights covered only one of five away last season, though road team has covered last three meetings. MSU closed Mark Dantonio era with 3-12 spread mark and just 1-9 as East Lansing chalk last two seasons. Tucker was 1-2 as chalk at Colorado in 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Rutgers, based on recent trends.

NEBRASKA at OHIO STATE

OSU has won SU last four vs. Nebraska and 3-1 vs. line in those games, with cover wins all by 41 or more. Only Huskers SU series win since entering Big Ten came in 2011, first year of membership. Scott Frost 1-4 vs. spread away last season and 1-3 as dog. Buckeyes 6-2 vs. spread last eight at Horseshoe (5-2 last year for Ryan Day). Tech edge: OSU, based on team and series trends. 

IOWA at PURDUE

Road team has covered last nine meetings since 2011, last 10 since 2008. Hawkeyes 7-2-1 vs. spread last 10 on Big Ten road, though just 2-2 last year. Jeff Brohm closed fast in 2019 with covers last four and seven of last eight, and was 6-1 last seven as Ross-Ade dog. Tech edge: Iowa, based on extended series road trends.

BAYLOR at TEXAS

Tom Herman 1-2 vs. line vs. Baylor with Longhorns, and Texas on 4-7 spread downturn last 11 since late 2019. Also 1-4 last five vs. Big 12 at Austin. Baylor was 9-1 vs. line last 10 as dog in Matt Rhule era. Tech edge: Baylor, based on team trends. 

CINCINNATI at SMU

Luke Fickell 7-4 last 11 as dog with Bearcats and 5-2 last seven away from Nippert last year. Sonny Dykes 4-1 vs. spread last five at Dallas. Teams last met in 2018. Tech edge: Slight to Cincy, based on team trends. 

IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE

Matt Campbell 19-9-1 as dog with ISU (1-0 in role this year). Road dog has won outright last three in series, and visitor has covered five in a row. But Mike Gundy on 13-4 spread run since late 2018. Tech edge: ISU, based on series road trends.

OKLAHOMA at TCU

OU has won SU last six meetings and has covered four of last five vs. TCU. But Sooners just 3-10-1 vs. spread last 14 overall since early 2019. Gary Patterson has covered first two as dog in 2020, though had dropped 15 of 22 vs. spread entering season (2-1 this year). Tech edge: Slight to TCU, based on team trends. 

AUBURN at OLE MISS

Lane Kiffin 2-2 vs. line with Rebels, his teams now 12-6 vs. spread since last year, including with FAU. Rebels on 10-5-1 spread uptick since 2019. But road team has covered last six meetings. Tech edge: Slight to Ole Miss, based on recent trends. 

WEST VIRGINIA at TEXAS TECH

WVU had won five in row SU vs. Tech before last season. But Red Raiders have lost last six Big 12 games outright since. Tech on 1-5 spread skid since late 2019. Mounties have covered five of last eight since late 2019 for Neal Brown. Tech edge: WVU, based on team and extended series trends.

TEMPLE at MEMPHIS

Temple 2-5 vs. line away from home under Rod Carey. Even after win over UCF last week, Tigers on 1-5 spread downturn since late 2019. Memphis also no covers four of last five at Liberty Bowl. Tech edge: Slight to Temple, based on team trends. 

KANSAS at KANSAS STATE

Les Miles 1-6 vs. spread last seven since late 2019 (0-3 in 2020), also 7-17 overall vs. spread since 2016 with LSU. Chris Klieman now 12-5 vs. spread with KSU since last year, and Wildcats have won last 11 SU in series, 8-3 vs. points in those games. Tech edge: Kansas State, based on team and series trends. 

SOUTH CAROLINA at LSU

Will Muschamp only 2-4 as dog in 2019 but 2-0-1 in role this year (3-0-1 overall vs. line). He was 10-3 as dog in 2017-18. Ed Orgeron only 2-4 vs. spread last six as SEC host. Tech edge: South Carolina, based on team trends.

LOUISIANA-MONROE at SOUTH ALABAMA

ULM on 5-17 spread skid since late 2018. But Warhawks have beaten USA last two meetings outright. Jaguars on 8-3 spread uptick since early 2019. Tech edge: South Alabama, based on recent trends. 

MARYLAND at NORTHWESTERN

Wildcats 0-6-3 vs. spread last nine at Evanston and 0-8-1 as chalk since late 2018. Terps just 1-6 last seven as visiting dogs (1-2 last year for Mike Locksley). Maryland 6-1 vs. line last seven openers. Tech edge: Maryland, based on team trends.

TEXAS STATE at BYU

Cougars 2-1 as Provo chalk in 2020, though just 3-6 previous nine in role. Texas State playing fifth straight on road and is 2-0 getting 20 or more. Tech edge: Slight to Texas State, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO at COLORADO STATE

Danny Gonzales’ UNM debut, Steve Addazio’s CSU debut. Addazio just 1-5 last six as chalk at BC. Rams have won last 10 SU in series and 8-2 vs. spread in those games. Lobos closed Bob Davie era just 4-15 last 19 vs. spread. Tech edge: CSU, based on series trends. 

UTAH STATE at BOISE STATE

Boise has won last four meetings and covered last three vs. Utags. USU just 2-4 last six as dog. Broncos covered five of last six as hosts last year after struggling vs. line previously on blue carpet. Tech edge: Boise, based on series and recent trends. 

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MARSHALL

Willie Taggart 0-1 vs. line with Owls, now 8-14-1 since 2018 at FSU and FAU. Herd has opened 4-0 SU and vs. line in 2020. Doc Holliday has covered last three in series. Tech edge: Marshall, based on recent and series trends. 

HAWAII at FRESNO STATE

Todd Graham debuts at Hawaii, Kalen DeBoer at Fresno. Hawaii just 4-7 last 11 vs. line on mainland in Nick Rolovich era, 8-13-1 last 22 as dog. FSU 4-0-1 vs. line last five meetings, though Bulldogs dropped off last season, just 3-8-1 vs. number as Jeff Tedford era closed. Tech edge: Slight to Fresno, based on series trends. 

UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE

Marcus Arroyo’s UNLV debut, Brady Hoke’s second SDSU debut. Rebels were 17-10 as road dogs in Tony Sanchez era and have covered last two vs. Aztecs. SDSU closed Rocky Long era just 4-10 in last 14 vs. spread as Mountain West host. Tech edge: UNLV, based on recent series and team trends. 

AIR FORCE at SAN JOSE STATE

AFA has played once this season and thumped Navy, and Falcons have covered seven of last nine on board since mid-2019. SJSU covered last four and six of last eight as dog in 2019, now on 11-6-1 spread run since early 2018 and has covered seven of last nine as MW host. Tech edge: Slight to SJSU, based on recent trends. 

WYOMING at NEVADA

Craig Bohl has won and covered last three vs. Wolf Pack since 2015, including last year. Wyoming 6-3 vs. spread last nine away from Laramie. Tech edge: Wyoming, based on team and series trends. 

SOUTHERN MISS at LIBERTY

Liberty is 11-5 vs. line in Hugh Freeze era. USM on 1-6 spread downturn since late 2019, just 2-5 last seven as dog. Tech edge: Liberty, based on recent trends. 

MICHIGAN at MINNESOTA

Little Brown Jug! Gophers on 9-4-2 spread uptick since late 2018. Jim Harbaugh 3-5 as road chalk last two years, P.J. Fleck 7-2-1 last 10 as dog. First meeting since 2017. Tech edge: Minnesota, based on team trends.

GEORGIA STATE at TROY

After Arkansas State loss, GSU 2-5-1 vs. line away from home since last year, 2-9-3 away since 2018. Troy just 6-10 vs. line for Chip Lindsey since 2019. GSU won big last year 52-33, though Troy won previous three (2-1 vs. line in those). Tech edge: Slight to GSU, based on team trends.  

UTEP at CHARLOTTE

Improved Miners 3-2 SU and vs. line in 2020, though Charlotte has covered first three this year. And 49ers covered four of last five as hosts in 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Charlotte, based on team trends. 

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at RICE

Season debut for Rice. Mike Bloomgren better-than-expected 5-4 as home dog last two years. MTSU had covered three in row before North Texas fiasco. Revenge for Blue Raiders after 31-28 home loss (as -14) in 2019. Tech edge: Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.  

LOUISIANA TECH at UTSA

If dogs, note Roadrunners 3-1 in role this year, now 8-2 last 10 as dogs. If La Tech a dog, note Skip Holtz 20-9-1 in role since arriving at Ruston in 2014. Holtz had covered three straight vs. UTSA before last season. Tech edge: Underdog, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at MISSOURI

UK has won last five meetings, covering four of those. Tech edge: Kentucky, based on series trends.

 

NFL

 

NEW YORK GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA

Giants have covered last three trips to Linc, as road team has covered last four in series. G-Men now 3-0 as road dogs in 2020 (visitor has covered first five N.Y. games), 7-2 since 2019 in role, 13-3 since 2018. Eagles on 5-14 skid vs. line last 19 at Linc. Tech edge: Giants, based on team and series trends.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI

Bengals have covered 10 of last 12 meetings, including Sept. 17 at Cleveland. Browns have covered three of last four in 2020 after 5-12-1 spread skid. Cincy has also covered four of last five this season. Browns Over 4-1 last five in 2020 and 7-3 Over since late 2019. Overs 5-0-1 last six meetings. Tech edge: Over and Bengals, based on totals and series trends. 

DALLAS at WASHINGTON

Into Monday vs. Cardinals, Dallas 0-5 vs. line in 2020, though Washington only 1-3-1 vs. spread. Cowboys have won and covered last three and five of last six meetings. Dallas Over 7-2 last nine since late 2019, Washington Over 6-2 last eight since late 2019. Overs 8-1 last nine meetings. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends.

DETROIT at ATLANTA

Falcons 0-3 vs. line at home in 2020, 6-12 last 18 vs. spot at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. But Lions have lost 12 of last 14 SU and 1-5 last six as road dogs. Detroit Over 14-7 since 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Over, based on totals trends. 

CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS

Panthers have won and covered three of last four in 2020 and have covered three of last four in series. Saints 2-6 vs. number last eight at Superdome. Carolina 11-6-1 Over since early 2019, Saints Over seven straight in regular season. Overs 9-2 last 11 meetings. Tech edge: Over and Panthers, based on totals and team trends.  

BUFFALO at NEW YORK JETS

Jets 0-6 SU and vs. line in 2020, 2-9 last 11 on board since late 2019. Bills Over 4-0-1 this season into K.C. on Monday, Overs 4-2 last six meetings. Tech edge: Bills and Over, based on team and totals trends. 

GREEN BAY at HOUSTON

Pack 4-1 SU and vs. line in 2020, now 6-2 last eight vs. spread in regular season since late 2019. Texans 4-10-1 vs. line last 15 on board. Tech edge: Packers, based on recent trends. 

PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE

Titans now 14-4 SU with Ryan Tannehill at QB, also 14-4 Over in those games. Steelers Under 8-1 last nine away. Mike Tomlin 10-2 as dog since 2018. Tech edge: Over, based on Titans totals trends.

SEATTLE at ARIZONA

Road team is 9-1-1 vs. line last 11 in series. Seahawks 8-3-1 vs. points last 12 on road. Cards Under 4-0-1 in 2020, 7-2-1 Under since late 2019. Last five in series at Glendale have been Under as well. Tech edge: Seahawks and Under, based on series and totals trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ENGLAND

Visiting team is 5-1 vs. line in Niners games this year (S.F. 2-0). Kyle Shanahan has covered five straight and eight of last 10 as visitor. After Rams win, Niners 5-0 as dogs since last season. Bill Belichick only 3-5 vs. line last eight at Gillette Stadium after Denver loss. Tech edge: 49ers, based on team trends.

KANSAS CITY at DENVER

Chiefs have won last nine SU in series (8-1 vs. line), longest SU win streak vs. Denver since 1964-69, when K.C. won 11 straight. Even after Raiders loss, Chiefs 13-1 SU, 12-2 vs. spread last 14 since mid-2019 before facing Bills on Monday. Vic Fangio 9-3 last 12 as dog. Series also Under last four meetings. Tech edge: Chiefs and Under, based on series and totals trends. 

JACKSONVILLE at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Chargers 1-4 SU, 4-1 vs. line in 2020. Bolts 1-1 vs. line at SoFi, though just 2-9 against number last 11 as hosts. Jaguars 4-9 last 13 vs. points away. Bolts Under 7-1 last eight as hosts and 11-3 Under last 14 at home. Tech edge: Under, based on totals trends. 

TAMPA BAY at LAS VEGAS

Bruce Arians Under last two in 2020 but still Over 15-7 with Bucs and Over 30-15 dating to mid-2016 with Cards. Raiders Over 4-0-1 in 2020. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends. 

CHICAGO at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Matchups between these two have been way Under each of last two seasons. Bears 3-0 vs. line away, 4-1 as dogs in 2020. Bears Under 21-8 since late 2018. Tech edge: Under and slight to Bears, based on totals and team trends.

 

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