Trends in CFB, NFL games this week

By Bruce Marshall  () 

COLLEGE

 

SOUTH ALABAMA at GEORGIA SOUTHERN

After losing and failing to cover five straight vs. Georgia Southern, USA at least covered in last year’s close 20-17 loss. Eagles’ victory margin was 32.4 ppg in previous five series wins. Jaguars on 10-3 spread uptick since mid-2019. Eagles only 2-5 last seven as Sun Belt chalk. Tech edge: USA, based on recent trends.

MARSHALL at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

Herd rolling, 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line in 2020. But Marshall has failed to cover last four in series. Butch Davis only 3-4 as dog since last year (1-1 in 2020) but 7-4 since 2018 in role. Tech edge: Slight to FIU, based on series trends.

EAST CAROLINA at TULSA

Tulsa on 7-2 spread uptick since mid-2019, including 3-0 this year. Golden Hurricane 5-2 last seven as chalk and routed ECU last year. Tech edge: Tulsa, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at MICHIGAN

Spartans just 9-18 vs. line since 2018, also 0-4 last year under Mark Dantonio in once-solid dog role. Jim Harbaugh has won and covered last two vs. MSU after losing vs. spread in first three vs. Spartans. Wolverines are 9-4 as Ann Arbor chalk last two seasons. Tech edge: Michigan, based on recent trends.

WAKE FOREST at SYRACUSE

Demon Deacons 4-1 vs. line in 2020 but have dropped last six vs. number away from Winston-Salem. Syracuse just 7-11 vs. line since 2019 (3-3 this year). Orange have won and covered last two meetings after Wake won 2016-17 clashes. Tech edge: Slight to Wake, based on recent trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA

Cavs 10-4 last 14 as dogs after Miami cover. Bronco Mendenhall has won and covered last three vs. Tar Heels. Tech edge: Virginia, based on team and series trends.

UTSA at FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Roadrunners 4-1 as dogs in 2020, 9-2 last 11 in role. Willie Taggart teams at FSU and FAU now 9-14-1 vs. line since 2018. Tech edge: UTSA, based on team trends.

KANSAS STATE at WEST VIRGINIA

If KSU a dog, note 2-0 mark in role this year, 8-2 since Chris Klieman arrived last year, 23-7 in role since 2016 dating to Bill Snyder’s last three seasons. But Wildcats have lost last four and failed to cover last three vs. Mounties. Neal Brown 2-1-2 as chalk with WVU. Tech edge: Kansas State, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at CLEMSON

Tigers 8-2 vs. line last 10 as ACC chalk. Dabo Swinney 22-6-1 vs. spread against ACC teams since late 2017. Tigers, however, only 2-3-2 vs. spread last seven against BC. Eagles 3-1 as dogs for Jeff Hafley, now 19-6-1 in role since late 2016 for Steve Addazio and Hafley. Tech edge: Slight to BC, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at LOUISVILLE

Road team has covered last seven regular-season Hokies games. Cards 6-3 vs. spread at home since last year for Scott Satterfield, whose teams are 23-10-3 vs. spread since late 2017, including Appalachian State. Hokies just 3-11 last 14 as chalk away from Blacksburg. Tech edge: Louisville, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME at GEORGIA TECH

Geoff Collins 5-12-1 vs. line at GT since last season, 2-4 in 2020. Jackets 5-9-1 as dogs in that span. Irish covered last three as road chalk a year ago. Teams haven’t met since 2015. Tech edge: Notre Dame, based on team trends.

CHARLOTTE at DUKE

Charlotte has covered first three on road in 2020. David Cutcliffe 4-9-1 last 14 as chalk, 0-7-1 last eight laying points at Durham vs. FBS foes. Tech edge: Charlotte, based on team trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at GEORGIA STATE

Coastal on five-game SU win streak after Louisiana triumph. Chanticleers 10-5 last 15 vs. spread after win over Ragin’ Cajuns. GSU on 6-1 spread uptick in Atlanta. Road team 2-0-1 vs. line last three meetings. Tech edge: Slight to Coastal, based on recent trends.

MINNESOTA at MARYLAND

Terps ended 2019 on 3-7 spread downturn for Mike Locksley and got blown out in opener at Northwestern. P.J. Fleck covered last three laying double digits a year ago and entered 2020 on 9-4-2 spread uptick before Michigan loss. Home team blowout wins last two years. Minnesota won 52-10 in 2019. Tech edge: Minnesota, based on team trends.

INDIANA at RUTGERS

Hoosiers no covers last six as chalk away from home since 2018 (0-3 last year). Home team has covered last four in series. Rutgers 1-3 as Big Ten home dog last year but 4-3 last seven in role before Greg Schiano. Tech edge: Rutgers, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE at PENN STATE

OSU has won last three meetings but covered none of those. In fact, James Franklin has covered four straight vs. Buckeyes. Nittany Lions 7-2 last nine as dogs for Franklin. Tech edge: Penn State, based on series trends.

MEMPHIS at CINCINNATI

Cincy covered both vs. Memphis last year even when losing outright. Tigers 1-4 vs. spread last five away from Liberty Bowl and 3-8 last 11 overall vs. line. Tech edge: Cincy, based on team trends.

PURDUE at ILLINOIS

Purdue covered all four as Big Ten road dog in 2019 and now six straight in role. Boilermakers had won and covered three straight vs. Illini before last year. Lovie Smith 4-6 last 10 as chalk. Tech edge: Purdue, based on team trends.

HAWAII at WYOMING

Craig Bohl on 7-2 spread run last nine at Laramie. Hawaii covered in opener at Fresno but still just 5-10 vs. line last 15 on mainland. Tech edge: Wyoming, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at UTAH STATE

Aztecs 6-3 vs. spread last nine away from home. After Boise loss, Utags on 4-7 spread skid since early 2019. Tech edge: SDSU, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at BYU

Cougars roaring in 2020, 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs. line. Hilltoppers 0-6 vs. spread in 2020 and now 0-7-1 last eight on board since late 2019. Tech edge: BYU, based on recent trends.

NEW MEXICO at SAN JOSE STATE

Spartans 10-4-1 vs. spread since late 2018, 17-9-1 last 27 on board after Air Force win. Lobos enter 2020 on 4-15 spread run, also lost and failed to cover at SJSU last year. Tech edge: SJSU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at UTEP

UNT on 5-18 spread skid since mid-2018, though Mean Green off big win at Middle Tennessee. Miners 4-2 vs. line in 2020 but on 2-9 spread skid at Sun Bowl and still just 14-27-1 vs. spread since 2017. Tech edge: Slight to UTEP, based on recent trends.

BOISE STATE at AIR FORCE

Boise has gotten Air Force the last three years, covering each, though had failed to cover previous five in series. Broncos 1-4 vs. spread last five away from home. Troy Calhoun 20-9 as dog since 2014, 6-2 last eight as home dog same span. Tech edge: Slight to AFA, based on team trends.

NEVADA at UNLV

Fremont Cannon! Rebels have won back-to-back meetings for first time since 2003-04. First game for UNLV at Allegiant Stadium. Wolf Pack only 7-12 vs. spread last 19 away from Reno. Tech edge: Slight to UNLV, based on recent trends.

RICE at SOUTHERN MISS

USM has won last five outright in series, but Owls 7-2 vs. spread last nine as visitors. Golden Eagles 1-7 last eight vs. line since late 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Rice, based on recent trends.

COLORADO STATE at FRESNO STATE

Steve Addazio was 14-4-1 vs. line as dog the last three years at BC, and Rams won for Mike Bobo as dogs at Fresno last year. Bulldogs tailed off to 1-4-1 vs. line at home in Jeff Tedford’s final season and began 2020 with home loss to Hawaii in Kalen DeBoer’s debut. Tech edge: CSU, especially if dog, based on Addazio trends.

NAVY at SMU

Ken Niumatalolo 24-13-1 as dog since 2015 (2-1 this year). Sonny Dykes 3-3 as home chalk vs. American since last year, and only a modest 16-16 vs. line since taking over SMU at Frisco Bowl in 2017. Tech edge: Navy, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at IOWA

NU 12-2 vs. spread last 14 as Big Ten visiting dog for Pat Fitzgerald. Wildcats had won and covered three straight in series before 20-0 loss last year in Evanston. Hawkeyes only 3-7 vs. line last 10 as Big Ten Iowa City chalk. Tech edge: Northwestern, based on team trends.

TEXAS at OKLAHOMA STATE

Tom Herman as a dog again? Didn’t quite work vs. OU, but that game did go four OTs. Herman was 16-5 as dog previous five seasons at Texas and Houston. But OSU has covered last two meetings, and Mike Gundy on 13-4-1 spread run. Tech edge: Texas, if dog, based on extended trends.

WISCONSIN at NEBRASKA

Road team has covered last five meetings. Badgers 15-6 vs. line as visitors since 2016. Huskers 3-9 vs. points in 2019. Tech edge: Wisconsin, based on team and series trends.

OKLAHOMA at TEXAS TECH

Home team has covered last seven meetings. Even after WVU win, Red Raiders 4-7 vs. line since late 2019. Sooners only 5-9-1 last 15 vs. Big 12 away from Norman, even counting TCU win last week. Tech edge: Texas Tech, based on series trends.

TEMPLE at TULANE

Rod Carey 3-5 vs. spread with Owls away from Linc. Wave 7-1 last eight vs. spread at home. Owls did win and cover vs. Tulane at Philly last season. Tech edge: Tulane, based on team trends.

LOUISIANA at TEXAS STATE

ULL has won and covered last seven meetings. Ragin’ Cajuns snapped back from three-game spread skid with UAB win. Billy Napier now on 19-10-2 spread run since early 2018. Napier 12-3-1 vs. line last 16 away regular season after UAB win. Tech edge: ULL, based on series and team trends.

TROY at ARKANSAS STATE

ASU had covered five of six before loss at App State. Red Wolves have covered six of last eight as Sun Belt hosts. After Georgia State loss, Chip Lindsey 6-11 vs. spread since taking over at Troy in 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.

TCU at BAYLOR

Road team has covered last four meetings. Gary Patterson 2-0 as dog this year, 13-10 last 23 in role (was 7-2 in role 2014-16). Tech edge: TCU, based on series trends.

UCF at HOUSTON

UCF 1-4 last five vs. line on American road, currently on 4-11 spread skid. Knights were 13-4 previous 17 on board. Dana Holgorsen just 2-5 vs. points at TDECU Stadium since arriving in 2019 (one game at NRG last year). But Cougars did cover big number at Orlando in 2019. Tech edge: Slight to UCF, based on extended trends.

IOWA STATE at KANSAS

KU just one cover in last nine (1-7-1) since late 2019, though that was against ISU last Nov. 23. If counting OSU game as cover, Cyclones 11-5 vs. line last 16 on Big 12 road. Tech edge: ISU, based on KU negatives.

LSU at AUBURN

Underdog has covered last four in series. If Ed Orgeron a dog, note 8-1 mark in role since 2017. Gus Malzahn on 4-6 spread downturn. Tech edge: LSU if dog, based on team and series trends.

UAB at LOUISIANA TECH

Skip Holtz only 1-2 as dog this year, but entering 2020 was 19-8 as dog since arriving at Ruston. After ULL loss, Blazers just 5-8 last 13 on board in first spread mini-downturn of Bill Clark era. Tech edge: Louisiana Tech, based on extended Skip Holtz trends. 

OLE MISS at VANDERBILT

Vandy on 4-12 spread skid, but home team has covered last four in series. Lane Kiffin 12-7 vs. line since last year with FAU and Rebels. Ole Miss on 10-6-1 spread run since last year. Kiffin 8-4 as chalk since last year. Tech edge: Ole Miss, based on recent trends. 

APPALACHIAN STATE at UL-MONROE

ULM on 5-15 spread skid, Warhawks also 1-8 vs. number last nine at Malone Stadium. App finally first cover of 2020 vs. Arkansas State and 7-2 last nine vs. points on Sun Belt road. Tech edge: App State, based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at ALABAMA

Mike Leach no covers last three in 2020, now just 1-2 as dog this year. Leach also started slowly in first season at Washington State in 2012 with no covers first four. Nick Saban hasn’t lost to Bulldogs since 2007, his first year with Tide, and has covered four of last five meetings. Tech edge: Alabama, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS at TEXAS A&M

Hogs 4-0 vs. line for Sam Pittman in 2020, have covered last two in series. Jimbo Fisher 2-3 last five as Kyle Field chalk. Tech edge: Arkansas, based on recent trends.

GEORGIA at KENTUCKY

Cats haven’t beaten Dawgs since 2009. Georgia had covered six straight in series before barely missing a year ago. Mark Stoops 13-7 vs. line  since late 2018 and 11-5 last 16 as dog. Tech edge: Kentucky, based on recent trends.

MISSOURI at FLORIDA

Gators had covered seven straight in Swamp before barely missing Oct. 3 vs. South Carolina. Tigers no covers last five away from Columbia (0-1 for Eli Drinkwitz). Tech edge: Florida, based on team trends.

 

NFL

 

ATLANTA at CAROLINA

Falcons romped in both meetings last year, but Panthers have covered four of last five after Saints result. Carolina 1-5-1 vs. line last seven in Charlotte (1-2 for Matt Rhule). Falcons actually 6-1 vs. line last seven away. Tech edge: Slight to Falcons, based on team trends. 

INDIANAPOLIS at DETROIT

Colts 1-2 vs. line away in 2020, 2-5 last seven vs. spread on road. Lions Over 8-1 last nine at Ford Field. Tech edge: Over and slight to Lions, based on totals and team trends. 

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY

Pack has covered last three and four of last five in series, including 43-34 win opening week. Green Bay also 8-3 vs. line last 11 at Lambeau. Vikes Over 4-2 in 2020 and 12-5 Over last 17 regular-season games. Tech edge: Packers and Over, based on team, series and totals trends.

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO

Bill Belichick has lost SU to Bills only three times in last 33 meetings, including in last regular-season game, another with Jacoby Brissett at QB. Pats 5-2 vs. line last seven regular-season meetings. As a dog, Belichick 14-4 since 2010. Bills only 4-8 vs. line last 12 on board. Under 7-4 last 11 meetings. Tech edge: Patriots and slight to Under, based on team and totals trends.

TENNESSEE at CINCINNATI

Ryan Tannehill 14-5 SU since becoming starting QB for Titans. Tennessee no covers last three away in 2020 but had covered five straight on road previously. Tannehill also Over 14-4-1 in his starts. Cincy 5-1-1 vs. spread in 2020. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends.

LAS VEGAS at CLEVELAND

Raiders Over 5-0-1 in 2020, Browns Over 5-2 in 2020 and 8-3 Over last 11 since late 2019. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends.

NEW YORK JETS at KANSAS CITY

Jets 0-7 SU and 1-6 vs. line in 2020 after first cover of season last week vs. Bills. Jets 3-9 vs. spread last 11 since late 2019. Chiefs 3-1 last four as DD chalk and 14-2 last 16 overall on line. Jets also Under 10-3 last 13 since late 2019. Tech edge: Chiefs and Under, based on team and totals trends.

LOS ANGELES RAMS at MIAMI

Rams 7-1 vs. spread in early Eastern time or London kickoffs under Sean McVay since 2017. L.A. 11-5 vs. spread last 16 away from home since late 2018. Dolphins Over 5-2 last seven as hosts, Rams Over 4-2 last six away. Tech edge: Slight to Over, based on totals trends.

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE

After Tennessee win, Mike Tomlin 11-2 as underdog since 2018. Ravens just 6-6 vs. spread last 12 as hosts. Ravens on 8-4 Under run since late 2019, Steelers Under 8-1 last nine away. Tech edge: Under and Steelers, based on totals and team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO

Saints covered last seven on road in 2019, now 8-1 last nine vs. points as visitors. Before Monday night loss to Rams, Bears 4-1 SU and vs. line as dogs this season. Saints also Over 7-2 last nine away and Over 8-1 last nine since late 2019, though Bears Under 13-8 since 2019 before Rams game. Tech edge: Over and slight to Saints, based on totals and team trends.  

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE

Last four meetings Over. Niners 9-2 vs. spread as visitors since last year, 3-0 in 2020. Covered last seven as dogs. Seahawks 2-1 vs. line at home in 2020, but close shaves vs. Pats and Cowboys, and just 5-9 vs. number last 14 at CenturyLink. Tech edge: 49ers and Over, based on team and totals trends.

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA

Cowboys 0-7 vs. line this year, 2-10 last 12 on board since late 2019. Dallas also no covers last five away. Eagles just 2-7 vs. line last nine at Linc. Cowboys Over 12-7 last 19 since early 2019, Birds Over 7-4 last 11 regular-season games. Tech edge: Over and slight to Eagles, based on totals and team trends.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at DENVER

Broncos swept Bolts last season for first time since 2015. Chargers on 5-1 spread uptick in 2020, Denver 12-6 spread uptick since mid-2019. Tech edge: Slight to Broncos, based on team and recent series trends.

TAMPA BAY at NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants 3-0-1 vs. line last four, 4-1-1 vs. spread last six in 2020. Bucs 2-2 vs. line away this year. Bruce Arians teams Over 31-15 since mid-2016 with Cards (16-7 Over with Bucs, 4-3 in 2020). Tech edge: Over and slight to Giants, based on totals and team trends.

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