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Trends for this week's games in CFB, NFL

By Bruce Marshall  () 

COLLEGE

 

COLORADO STATE at AIR FORCE

Recent series edge to road team, which has covered last four meetings. Home teams, however, are 3-0 SU and vs. line in CSU games this season. Steve Addazio 1-1 as dog with Rams, 14-5-1 as dog dating to 2017 with BC. Tech edge: Slight to CSU, based on series and Addazio trends.

NEW MEXICO at UTAH STATE

Aggies are 0-4 SU and vs. line to begin season, on 4-10 spread skid since mid-2019, though they have won and covered last three in series. Lobos on 6-17 spread skid after Air Force game (but 2-2 this season vs. line). Tech edge: Slight to UNM, based on recent trends.

UCF at SOUTH FLORIDA

USF 2-10 vs. spread last 12 at home against FBS foes. UCF has won and covered last two meetings by 72-17 aggregate. However, Knights only 6-13 last 19 vs. line since early 2019.  Tech edge: Slight to UCF, based on team and recent series trends. 

LOUISVILLE at BOSTON COLLEGE

BC 1-2 as chalk this season, 2-7 in last nine laying points since late 2018. Eagles, however, have covered last three in series. Scott Satterfield just 1-3-1 as dog this year with Cardinals and 5-7-1 in role since arriving last year. Tech edge: Slight to Louisville, based on BC chalk trends. 

NOTRE DAME at NORTH CAROLINA

Mack Brown 3-2 as dog since last season, Heels 12-5 in last 17 as dog since late 2017. Heels 6-1 in last 7 as Chapel Hill dog. Irish only 4-4 vs. line this season, 4-3 in last seven as visiting chalk since last season. Tech edge: UNC, based on Heels dog trends. 

STANFORD at CAL

Big Game! Stanford on 3-11 spread skid since start of last season. Road team has covered last four and five of last six Big Games. Cardinal 1-6 as dog since last season after good marks for David Shaw prior. Bears, however, only 1-6-1 vs. spread in last eight in Berkeley. Tech edge: Slight to Stanford, based on extended trends. 

OREGON at OREGON STATE

Beavers broke eight-game series SU slump back in 2016 but have lost last three since. OSU, however, has covered four of last seven meetings and is 10-2 overall in last 12 as dog since early 2019. Ducks only 12-14 ATS last 26. Tech edge: Slight to OSU, based on recent trends.

IOWA STATE at TEXAS

Matt Campbell only 1-3 SU and 0-4 vs. line against Texas. But ISU 18-10-2 as dog for Campbell since he arrived in 2016 (counting Oklahoma State this season as push). Tom Herman 1-5-1 vs. line at home in Big 12 since last season. Tech edge: ISU, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA at IOWA

Iowa has won last five meetings SU but has not covered last two vs. Huskers. Scott Frost, however, on 1-6 spread skid on road and just 4-12 overall vs. spread since last season. Tech edge: Iowa, based on recent trends. 

WYOMING at UNLV

UNLV 0-4 SU and vs. line this season (counting San Jose State as loss), now 4-12 vs. line since beginning of last season. Tech edge: Wyoming, based on recent team trends.  

TCU at KANSAS

Les Miles 0-7 SU, 0-6-1 vs. line in 2020, now on 0-7-1, 1-9-1 spread skids since late last season. Home side, however, has covered last four meetings. Tech edge: TCU, based on recent Kansas woes. 

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA STATE

Southern has won and covered big last two years in series by 73-24 combined score. Eagles now 8-3 Under since late 2019. State 5-6 Under in 2020, and last three Under in series.Tech edge: Slight to Georgia Southern and Under, based on recent series trends.

GEORGIA at SOUTH CAROLINA

Roof has caved in on South Carolina with no wins or covers last four in 2020, costing Will Muschamp his job. Home team is 5-1 vs. line in Georgia games this season (neutral vs. Florida), though road team has covered last four in series. Revenge game for Kirby Smart after bitter OT loss to visiting Gamecocks last season. Tech edge: Georgia, based on series trends. 

KENTUCKY at FLORIDA

Mark Stoops has covered last three vs. Florida and 11-5 last 16 as dog. Dan Mullen, however, on 11-6 spread uptick overall and Gators 8-1 vs. spread in last nine at home. Tech edge: Florida, based on team trends. 

SMU at EAST CAROLINA

ECU covered last meeting in wild 59-51 shootout at Dallas last year, and is 8-5 its last 13 as a dog (though no covers last two in role). SMU just 2-5 vs. spread in last seven on road. Pirates also on 10-4 Over run since late last season. Tech edge: Over and slight to ECU, based on totals and team trends.

PITT at CLEMSON

Pitt has caused trouble before and dealt Dabo Swinney’s 2016 national champs their only SU loss and their last Death Valley loss. Tigers avenged that result in 2018 ACC title game 42-10.  Clemson, however, only 2-6 vs. line this season. Pat Narduzzi 23-15 as dog since 2015. Tech edge: Slight to Pitt, based on team trends. 

WESTERN KENTUCKY at CHARLOTTE

WKU only 2-7-1 vs. line this season and 2-8-2 last 12 on board since late 2019. Home team has won and covered last three in series. Tech edge: Charlotte, based on series and recent WKU trends. 

CINCINNATI at TEMPLE

Bearcats on 8-3 spread uptick since late last season and have covered five of last eight as chalk. Cincy Under 15-7 since last season. Owls however have covered last five meetings.  Temple was 6-1 vs. line at home last season but 0-3 in role this year. Tech edge: Slight to Temple, based on series trends. 

VIRGINIA at FLORIDA STATE

Seminoles 0-3 vs. line last three this season, 2-6 in 2020, 8-18 last 26 since mid-2018. Virginia 8-3 vs. spread last 11 on board. Cavs also on 11-2 Under run since mid-2019. Tech edge: Virginia and Under, based on team trends. 

NORTHWESTERN at MICHIGAN STATE

Wildcats rolling at 5-0 SU and vs. line in 2020. Pat Fitzgerald also Under last six since late 2019. Meanwhile MSU 1-3 SU and vs. line this season for Mel Tucker, now on 6-15 spread skid dating to mid-2018 and Mark Dantonio. Cats had won and covered three straight in series before Spartans rolled 31-0 last year. Tech edge: Northwestern, based on recent trends. 

PENN STATE at MICHIGAN

James Franklin 0-5 SU and vs. line in 2020. Jim Harbaugh not much better at 1-4 vs. spread.  Franklin was 7-2 as dog entering 2020 before losses vs. Ohio State and Iowa. Harbaugh 4-1 SU, 3-2 vs. line in series vs. Franklin since 2015. Tech edge: Slight to Michigan, based on recent series trends.

NC STATE at SYRACUSE

Syracuse struggling but not-so-awful 4-5 vs. spread in 2020. Orange 4-7 vs. line at Carrier Dome since last season. Wolfpack an improved 6-3 vs. line this season, also Over 9-4 last 13 since late 2019. Tech edge: NC State and slight to Over, based on team and totals trends.

DUKE at GEORGIA TECH

David Cutcliffe might not be a dog here, so maybe no need to cite downturn in his dog marks (2-3 this year, 4-7-1 since last season, though 25-12-1 in the six previous seasons). Tech 6-12-1 vs. spread since Geoff Collins arrived last season. Cutcliffe has won last three SU and five of last six vs. Jackets, 5-0-1 vs. line in last six meetings. Note Tech’s 11-4 Over run since early last season, Blue Devils 13-77 Over since 2019. Tech edge: Duke and Over, based on team and totals trends. 

OKLAHOMA at WEST VIRGINIA

Mountaineers have been gnarly this year, 4-0-1 vs. line at home. Also on 6-2-1 spread uptick since late last season. Tech edge: WVU, based on recent trends. 

MARYLAND at INDIANA

If they can play this one, note Terps have won and covered last two this season after dropping eight of preceding 11 vs. spread. Indiana, however, 4-1 SU and 5-0 vs. line. Hoosiers now on 12-3 spread uptick since early 2019. Home team has covered last four meetings. Tech edge: Indiana, based on recent trends. 

RUTGERS at PURDUE

Greg Schiano 3-2 vs. line in return to Rutgers but has lost last 4 SU since opening win against MSU. Purdue 5-4 vs. spread last nine at home (1-1 this year). Purdue also was Under first three in 2020 after Over last four in 2019. Boilermakers 8-3 last 11 vs. spread since mid-2019. Tech edge: Slight to Purdue, based on team trends. 

KENT STATE at BUFFALO

Lance Leipold didn’t quite get there against line vs. Bowling Green but is still 3-0 SU this season and 28-13-3 last three-plus years vs. spread. Bulls had won and covered two straight vs. Kent State before Golden Flashes won 30-27 thriller in 2019. Sean Lewis, however, on 9-2 spread uptick after blowout of Akron and covered last six as a dog last season. Kent State on 6-2 Over run, Buffalo 7-2 Over in last nine. Tech edge: Slight to Kent State and Over, based on team and totals trends. 

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WESTERN MICHIGAN

NIU finally got a cover last week at Ball State, but Huskies now just 5-10 SU for Thomas Hammock. WMU rolling 3-0 SU and vs. spread also way Over first three this year. Dog team, however, has covered last four in series. NIU 7-3 Over in last 10. Tech edge: Over and WMU, based on current trends. 

BALL STATE at TOLEDO

Ball State is 2-1 SU but 0-3 vs. line in 2010, now 1-5 last six vs. spread since late 2019. Also had a six-game Over streak snapped in NIU game last week. Toledo revenge game after getting blasted 52-14 by Cards last season. Rockets have covered two of three to begin 2020 after 0-6-1 spread mark to close 2019. Toledo had won five straight in series before last year’s blowout loss. Rockets on 7-2 Over run since late 2019. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends.

MIAMI (OHIO) at AKRON

Zips 0-15 SU, 2-13 vs. line for Tom Arth after 69-35 loss to Kent State. Note, however, Miami was the only Akron cover of 2019. RedHawks still on 7-3 spread uptick. Tech edge: Miami-Ohio, based on Akron woes.

SAN JOSE STATE at BOISE STATE

SJSU 4-0 SU and vs. line (counting UNLV as a win), covered last year vs. Boise. Spartans on 13-4-1 spread uptick and 10-3 last 13 as dog. Broncos 6-1 vs. line at home vs. Mountain West since last season. Tech edge: San Jose State, based on team trends.

TROY at APPALACHIAN STATE

Appalachian State only 1-7 vs. line this year for Shawn Clark, 1-8 last eight since late last season. Chip Lindsey, however, just 7-13 vs. spread since taking over Troy. Also just 2-5 as dog since last season. Mountaineers won and covered last two years vs. Trojans. Tech edge; Slight to Appalachian State, based on recent series trends.

ARIZONA at UCLA

Kevin Sumlin only improves 4-10 vs. line with Arizona since last year. Dog team has covered last three in series. Chip Kelly only 1-6 as chalk with Bruins (0-1 this year), but UCLA has covered two in a row this season. Tech edge: Slight to Arizona, based on series trends. 

COLORADO at USC

Buffs haven’t beaten USC outright since joining conference in 2011 (0-9 SU) but have covered three of last five in series. Karl Dorrell has opened 2-0 SU and vs. line (both as dog) this season. Clay Helton 1-3 last four vs. line since late last season. Tech edge: Colorado, based on recent trends. 

NORTH TEXAS at UTSA

North Texas had a long hiatus but has won and covered last two after 4-18 spread skid in previous 22. Home team, however, has covered last six meetings, and this is revenge game for Roadrunners after 45-3 loss on road last season. Tech edge: UTSA, based on team trends. 

TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA STATE

Texas Tech has covered last four meetings and rolled 45-35 as + 9.5 home dog last season. Mike Gundy was 18-8 vs. line last two seasons but can see Red Raiders were a bit of a thorn.  Tech, however, has failed to cover first three on road this year.  Note OSU’s 9-2 Under run since late 2019. Tech edge: Under and slight to Texas Tech, based on totals and recent series trends.  

OHIO STATE at ILLINOIS

Buckeyes are 5-1 vs. line as Big Ten visitors since last season. Lovie Smith’s Illini on 12-7 Under run since late 2018. Illinois covered last meeting as + 41.5 dog in 2017. Tech edge: OSU and slight to Under, based on team and totals trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at TEXAS STATE

Coastal Carolina on 10-3-1 spread uptick since mid-2019, though failed to cover 2019 finale vs. Bobcats. Texas State, however, has covered all four as home dog this season and 8-3 overall last 11 in dog role. Tech edge: Slight to Texas State, based on team trends. 

SOUTH ALABAMA at ARKANSAS STATE

USA 8-1 Under this season and on 16-5 Under run since last year. Home team has won and covered last four meetings, though Jags on 13-9-1 mild spread uptick. Tech edge: Slight to Under, based on recent totals trends.

AUBURN at ALABAMA

Iron Bowl! Home team 7-1 SU last eight meetings, and Bama has won and covered four straight vs. Auburn at home since Cam Newton’s 28-27 win in 2010. Nick Saban 4-0 vs. line at home this season. Gus Malzahn only 9-13 as dog since 2014. Tech edge: Alabama, based on series and team trends. 

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MIDDLE TENNESSEE

FAU 13-7 vs. line since last season (3-3 under Willie Taggart), though home team has won and covered last four meetings. Note 17-8-1 Over run for Blue Raiders since late 2018. MTSU 7-3 last 10 as dog. Tech edge: Slight to FAU, based on recent trends. 

KANSAS STATE at BAYLOR

Even after loss to Iowa State, K-State still 9-4 as dog since last season for Chris Klieman. Wildcats closed 15-5 as dog previous three seasons for Bill Snyder. Dog side has covered last five meetings. Tech edge: K-State, based on series and team trends.

LSU at TEXAS A&M

LSU has covered all eight vs. Aggies since they joined SEC in 2012. Ed Orgeron 8-2 as dog since 2017 (0-1 this year). Jimbo Fischer only 1-2 vs. line at home this year and 3-5 last eight vs. spread as host. Tech edge: LSU, based on series trends.

UTEP at RICE

UTEP’s rare three-game cover streak was snapped at UTSA.  Road team has won and covered last three meetings. Rice 1-5 as chalk since 2017. Tech edge: Slight to UTEP, based on team trends. 

MISSISSIPPI STATE at OLE MISS

Egg Bowl! Mike Leach only 2-5 vs. line this season for MSU, and his teams 6-16 vs. spread last 22 since late 2018 at Washington State. Bulldogs have won and covered three of last four Egg Bowls, but Lane Kiffin on 14-7 spread uptick since last season at Florida Atlantic. Kiffin and Leach met in 2013 WSU-USC just before Lane was terminated, with Leach winning and covering 10-7.  Tech edge: Ole Miss, based on recent trends. 

LOUISIANA at LOUISIANA-MONROE

Dog has covered last three meetings, but ULM only 3-4 vs. line this year and 10-19 last 29 overall vs. spread. Ragin Cajuns only 3-8 vs. spread last 11 on board, 3-5 this season. Tech edge-slight to ULM, based on series trends. 

NEVADA at HAWAII

Wolf Pack seeks revenge after 54-3 humiliation at home last year. Nevada has started 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. number and has won and covered three of last four vs. Hawaii at Aloha Stadium.  Rainbow Warriors 4-11-1 vs. line last 16 vs. Mountain West at home. Tech edge: Nevada, based on team trends.  

 

NFL

 

HOUSTON at DETROIT

Lions only 3-13 SU last 16 on Thanksgiving but covered last year vs. Bears and 4-3 vs. line last seven on Thanksgiving. They’re only 3-7 vs. line last 10 at Ford Field. Lions Over 8-5 in last 13 since late 2019. Texans just 3-8 last 11 regular-season games on line (though 2-0 last two), 1-5-1 last seven vs. spread on road. Tech edge: Slight to Over, based on totals trends.

WASHINGTON at DALLAS

Cowboys 2-8 vs. line this season (1-4 at home), and 1-8 vs. points last nine on Thanksgiving. Washington 3-5-2 vs. spread this season and won first meeting 26-3. Dallas Under 4-1 last five in 2020. Tech edge: Washington and Under, based on extended and totals trends. 

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH

Ravens on 2-5-1 spread slump last seven this season after 11-1 spread uptick in regular-season games. John Harbaugh, however, has dropped only one vs. spread in last five in Pittsburgh (3-1-1), and Ravens 5-0 as dog since last season. Steelers 9-0 SU, 7-2 vs. line this year. Last three Over in series. Tech edge: Ravens and slight to Over, based on series and totals trends.   

LAS VEGAS at ATLANTA

Falcons 3-2 SU and vs. line since Raheem Morris replaced Dan Quinn. Raiders, however, 4-1 vs. line on road this season and have covered five of last six. Vegas also Over 6-2-1 this season before Kansas City game Sunday night. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends. 

ARIZONA at NEW ENGLAND

Cardinals with no covers in last three games, had been 15-7-1 vs. line before loss to Seattle. Still 8-3-1 vs. points last 12 road games. Bill Belichick in 6-11 spread skid (4-6 this year). Tech edge: Cardinals, based on team trends. 

NEW YORK GIANTS at CINCINNATI

Giants hot vs. line, 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven this season, and covered last six as dog. Cincy pretty good 6-3-1 vs. spread this year but just 2-6 last eight as chalk (1-0 this season). Bengals on 10-4 Over run. Tech edge: Giants and Over, based on team and totals trends. 

CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE

Jaguars had covered two in a row before loss to Steelers, had previously dropped five in a row vs. line this season. Browns covered vs. Eagles last week but still 9-16-1 vs. number since last season and just 1-9 last 10 vs. spread as visitor. Tech edge: Jaguars, based on recent trends. 

CAROLINA at MINNESOTA

Panthers have covered last four on road this season and 6-1 last seven as dog. Even after loss to Dallas, Vikings have covered six of last eight this season, also Over 15-6 last 21 regular-season games (7-3 Over this year). Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends. 

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS

Quick rematch from Nov. 12 in Nashville when Colts won 34-17. But Titans 16-7 SU since Tannehill took over at QB, and Over 18-5 in that span. Tennessee also 4-2 last six as dog. Colts Over 5-1 last six this year.  Tech edge: Over and slight to Titans, based on totals and team trends.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at BUFFALO

Chargers with no covers in last four, 7-17-2 vs. spread since last season. A lot of those very close. Chargers also on 11-4 Over run. Bills Over 7-2-1 this season. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends. 

MIAMI at NEW YORK JETS

Dolphins already blanked Jets 24-0 earlier this year and have covered seven of last nine in 2020. Jets still winless SU but have covered three of last four. Under 5-2 in last seven meetings.  Tech edge: Dolphins and slight to Under, based on team and totals trends. 

NEW ORLEANS at DENVER

Saints on 9-5 Over run since late last season, Denver Over three of last five this season.  Broncos 6-3 as home dog under Vic Fangio, but Sean Payton 9-2 vs. line last 11 on road. Tech edge: Slight to Saints and Over, based on team and totals trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Niners have won last three SU in series, including Oct 18 at Levi’s, but 0-3 SU and vs. line in last games this season. Rams Under 6-1 in last seven after beating Bucs on Monday night and 7-3 Under in 2020. First four Rams home games Under in 2020. Tech edge: Under and slight to 49ers, based on totals and team trends. 

KANSAS CITY at TAMPA BAY

Chiefs 7-2 vs. spread in last nine on road and 15-4 vs. number in last 19 overall. Bruce Arians Over 7-4 this season, 19-8 since last season, 34-16 Over since mid-2016 with Cardinals. Tech edge: Chiefs and Over, based on team and totals trends. 

CHICAGO at GREEN BAY

Bears 0-4 SU, 1-3 vs. line last four this season. Packers no covers in last two at home this season. Bears Under 7-3 this year, 24-9 Under since late 2018. Tech edge: Under, based on totals trends. 

SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA

Seattle has won and covered twice at Philadelphia by identical 17-9 scores. Seahawks have no covers last three on road after 8-3-1 prior spread mark as visitor. Eagles on 3-7 spread skid in last 10 at home. Tech edge: Slight to Seahawks, based on team trends.

 

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