Trends for this week's CFB, NFL contests

By Bruce Marshall  () 

COLLEGE

 

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at SOUTHERN MISS

Even after loss to Georgia Southern, FAU 2-1 vs. line away, now 7-2 vs. spread away from Boca Raton since last year. Southern Miss has covered last two but still 3-9 vs. line since late 2019. Owls 6-1 Under this season. Golden Eagles Under 5-1 in last six. Tech edge: FAU and Under, based on team and totals trends.

PITT at GEORGIA TECH

Pitt on 8-2 Over run. Panthers have won and covered last two in series. Tech on 12-5 Over run since early 2019. Tech edge: Over and slight to Pitt, based on totals and team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at UTEP

After loss to Louisiana Tech, UNT on 6-20 spread skid since mid-2018. Home team has covered last four in series. Home game for UTEP but moved to Denton due to COVID concerns in El Paso. Tech edge: Slight to UTEP, based on team trends.

ARIZONA STATE at ARIZONA

Territorial Cup. Kevin Sumlin on 4-12 spread skid since last year, though dog team has covered last four in series. Tech edge: Slight to ASU, based on team trends.

CHARLOTTE at MARSHALL

After loss to Western Kentucky, 49ers no covers last four (0-3-1). Herd 7-1 SU, 5-3 vs. line this year (3-3 at home vs. line). Tech edge: Slight to Marshall, based on team trends.

UTAH at COLORADO

Karl Dorrell 4-0 SU and vs. line this year, while Kyle Whittingham 1-2 vs. line. Utes have won and covered last four in series after Colorado covered first five after these schools joined Pac-12 in 2011. Utes 7-2 vs. line last nine as Pac-12 visitors. Tech edge: Slight to Colorado, based on current trends.

NEVADA at SAN JOSE STATE

Wolf Pack 10-1 SU last 11 in series. But Spartans on 14-4-1 spread run since late 2018. Game being played in Las Vegas. Tech edge: Slight to SJSU, based on recent trends.

WISCONSIN at IOWA

Wisconsin has won last four outright in series. If Badgers are dogs, note 9-5 mark in role since 2015 for Paul Chryst. If Iowa a dog, 5-5-1 in role since 2017. Tech edge: Slight to Wisconsin, based on series trends.

PURDUE at INDIANA

Old Oaken Bucket! Purdue no covers last five this year after 8-1 mark previous nine vs. line. IU 7-0 vs. line this year and 14-3 last 17 vs. number since early 2019. Boilermakers have covered last four and seven of last nine Buckets. Tech edge: Indiana, based on recent trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at PENN STATE

MSU 7-16 vs. line last 23 on board since late 2018, 2-4 vs. points this year. James Franklin 2-5 vs. line this year and has dropped last eight vs. spread at Beaver Stadium, though Nittany Lions on two-game win and cover streak. Tech edge: Slight to Penn State, based on team trends.

RUTGERS at MARYLAND

Greg Schiano 4-3 vs. line this year, though Terps have won and covered four of last five in series pre-Schiano. Tech edge: Slight to Rutgers, based on recent trends.

APPALACHIAN STATE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN

App State 2-9 vs. line this year, 2-10 last 12 on board. Also no covers last five on road. GSU has won last two meetings as dog in each. Tech edge: Georgia Southern, based on team and recent series trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at BALL STATE

WMU 4-1 SU, 3-2 vs. line this year. Last four Over in series. Ball State 4-6 vs. line last nine since late 2019 and 1-4 vs. line last five in Muncie, though Cards have won their last four outright in 2020. Ball has covered last two meetings after Broncos covered all four from 2014-17. Tech edge: Slight to Ball State and Over, based on recent and totals trends.

MIAMI (OHIO) at BOWLING GREEN

Falcons 4-12 vs. line since last year, also 1-3 SU and vs. line last four in series. RedHawks 8-3 vs. spread last 11 since mid-2019. Tech edge: Miami, based on BGSU negatives.

AKRON at BUFFALO

Akron 1-16 SU, 3-14 vs. line since last year but on one-game winning streak! Bulls 3-0-1 vs. line last four in series. Buffalo has covered last seven as host. Tech edge: Buffalo, based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN

NIU 5-12 SU since last year but better 9-8 vs. line. Road team has covered last four meetings. As well as Eagles have performed vs. spread on road, EMU only 2-8 vs. number last 10 at Ypsilanti. Tech edge: Slight to NIU, based on team and series trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at TOLEDO

Jim McElwain 13-6 vs. spread since arriving at CMU in 2019 and has covered six of last seven as visitor. Rockets 3-2 SU and vs. line this year but on 3-8-1 spread skid since mid-2019. Tech edge: CMU, based on recent trends.

LSU at FLORIDA

Florida 9-1-1 vs. line last 11 at home since late 2018. Ed Orgeron 9-3 as dog since 2017 (1-2 this year). Tech edge: Florida, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI

Miami 2-4 vs. line last six in 2020, 5-7 vs. spread last 12 since late 2019. Home team has covered last three in series, and UNC 4-1 SU and vs. line last five meetings. Tech edge: UNC, based on team and series trends. 

VIRGINIA at VIRGINIA TECH

Last year Virginia won this game for the first time since 2003. Bronco Mendenhall has won last four SU and covered last five in 2020. Cavs also on 13-2 Over run. Tech on 3-9 spread skid since late last year, also 8-4 Over last 12 since late 2019. Tech edge: Virginia and Over, based on team and totals trends.

MINNESOTA at NEBRASKA

Huskers just 5-12 vs. spread since 2019, 3-6 last nine at Lincoln. But home team has won and covered last four meetings. Gophers 12-6 Over since last season. Tech edge: Slight to Nebraska and Over, based on series and totals trends.

ILLINOIS at NORTHWESTERN

Illini only 1-4 SU and vs. line last five in series. Wildcats 6-1-2 vs. spread last nine since late 2019, also on 18-8 Under run since mid-2018. Tech edge: NU and Under, based on team and totals trends.

FRESNO STATE at NEW MEXICO

Lobos finally got first SU win of 2020 last week but still just 7-16 vs. spread since late 2018.  Bulldogs have won and covered last five meetings. Game will be played in Las Vegas. Tech edge: Fresno State, based on recent trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at BYU

This was a very heated series in the old WAC days. Aztecs won 13-3 last year when Cougars were on five-game spread skid to end season. But BYU 9-1 SU, 7-2-1 vs. line this year. Aztecs also on 24-9 Under run since early 2018. Tech edge: BYU and Under, based on team and totals trends.

NAVY at ARMY

No neutral site this year. Army had won three in a row before Mids won 31-7 last year. Under series deluxe — 14 straight! Tech edge: Under, based on totals trends.

USC at UCLA

Bruins have covered four in a row in 2020 and are 5-3 vs. line last eight against Trojans. UCLA 2-0 SU and vs. line at home in 2020. Clay Helton 6-11 vs. spread last 17 away from Coliseum.  Tech edge: UCLA, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON at OREGON

Not long ago, Huskies were on 12-game series losing streak before winning in 2016-17, but Ducks have bounced back with exciting wins last two years. Huskies just 4-7 vs. line last 11 as Pac-12 visitors. Ducks on 9-3-1 Over run since mid-2019. Tech edge: Slight to Oregon and Over, based on series and totals trends.

CALIFORNIA at WASHINGTON STATE

Cal has covered last three meetings, though Bears are 0-3 SU in 2020. Before loss to USC last weekend, WSU only 5-12 last 17 on board (1-1 for Nick Rolovich). Tech edge: Slight to Cal, based on series trends.

UAB at RICE

No sight of UAB lately. Blazers just 2-5 vs. line this year for Bill Clark, who had been a spread overachiever. UAB has won and covered handily last three years vs. Owls. Tech edge: Slight to UAB, based on series trends.

WAKE FOREST at LOUISVILLE

Dave Clawson has covered last five and six of seven this season. If getting points, note Deacons 6-2 last eight as dogs. Last four meetings way Over in series, and Louisville 11-4 on Over run. Tech edge: Wake Forest especially if dog, and Over based on team and totals trends.

DUKE at FLORIDA STATE

FSU 2-6 vs. line this year, 5-11 last 16 as chalk. Seminoles 15-29-2 overall vs. line since 2017. David Cutcliffe on 16-8 Over run since late 2018. Cutcliffe just 2-4 as dog this year and 4-8-1 in role since last year but was 25-12-1 from 2013-18 as dog. Tech edge: Slight to Duke and Over, based on team and totals trends.

OKLAHOMA at WEST VIRGINIA

Sooners hot with 6-0 SU and 5-1 spread mark last six this year. WVU, however, is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 vs. line at home in 2020. Sooners 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. line last six in series, now 8-0 SU vs. Mounties since WVU entered Big 12. Tech edge: Slight to OU, based on team trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at TROY

Troy 8-14 vs. line since last year for Chip Lindsey, also 8-3-1 Under since late 2019. Chanticleers 10-0 SU, 8-1-1 vs. line this year, 4-0 vs. line away. Tech edge: Coastal Carolina, based on recent trends.

STANFORD at OREGON STATE

Stanford 1-3 vs. line this year, 4-12 since last season. OSU on 13-3 spread uptick in last 16 games. Tech edge: Oregon State, based on recent trends.

TEXAS at KANSAS

Tom Herman just 2-5-1 last eight on board this season, but KU 1-7-1 vs. line in 2020. Tech edge: Slight to Texas, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at MEMPHIS

Tigers 1-8 vs. line this year, now on 1-11 spread skid since late 2019. Five straight series covers for Memphis. Dana Holgorsen 0-3 as dog in 2020. Tech edge: Slight to Houston, based on recent trends.

BOISE STATE at WYOMING

Craig Bohl has covered four of last five in series, and Wyoming 9-4 last 13 as Laramie dog. Broncos just 3-5 vs. spread last eight away. Tech edge: Wyoming, based on team and series trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR

No covers last five this year for OSU after Mike Gundy’s 13-4 spread run before that. Bears, however, 2-4-1 last seven vs. line this year, though 7-2-1 as dogs since last year (2-1-1 this year). Baylor has won and covered four of last five meetings. OSU 10-3 Under run. Tech edge: Under and slight to Baylor, based on totals and series trends.

LOUISIANA TECH at TCU

Skip Holtz 3-2 as dog this year, 22-10-1 in role since arriving at Ruston in 2014. TCU 6-16-1 as home chalk since 2016. Tech edge: Louisiana Tech, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at COLORADO STATE

After Air Force loss, Utags now 1-5 SU and vs. spread this year and 5-11 last 16 on board since early 2019. CSU has covered last four in series. Tech edge: CSU, based on team and series trends.

UNLV at HAWAII

Rebels 0-5 SU and vs. line in 2019 (counting San Jose State as loss), now 1-5 vs. spread last six on Mountain West road. Hawaii has covered two of four at home this season as the poor Honolulu marks dating to the Norm Chow years minimized. Tech edge: Hawaii, based on recent trends.

AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI STATE

Mike Leach has covered two in a row after dropping five straight vs. line, has 5-16 spread mark in previous 21 dating to 2018 at Washington State. But Gus Malzahn has won and covered three of last four vs. MSU. Tigers just 1-4 vs. line last five away from Jordan-Hare. Tech edge: Under, based on totals trends.

 

NFL

 

PATRIOTS at RAMS

Bill Belichick has covered last four as a dog in 2020, now 18-5 as dog since 2010. Belichick also Under 9-4 last 13 since late 2019. Rams on 7-2 Under run. Tech edge: Under and Patriots, based on totals and team trends.

PACKERS at LIONS

Lions have actually covered last three vs. Pack at Ford Field, though Detroit just 2-4 vs. line last six this year and lost 42-21 Sept. 20 at Lambeau. Lions Over 18-10 since last year, Pack on 9-5 Over run since late 2019. Tech edge: Over and slight to Lions, based on totals and series trends.

TITANS at JAGUARS

Titans Over 10-2 in 2020, now Over 20-5 since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB mid-2019. Jaguars Over 14-10-1 last 25 since early 2019. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends.

COWBOYS at BENGALS

Into Ravens on Tuesday night, Dallas 2-9 vs. line this year, now 1-6 vs. spread last seven away. Also 14-9 Over since early 2019. Cincy 4-0-1 vs. line at home this year. Tech edge: Bengals and slight to Over, based on team and totals trends. 

CARDINALS at GIANTS

Giants 7-1-1 vs. line last nine this year, also 8-3-1 Under in 2020. Cards no covers last five but did win and cover vs. Jets at MetLife on Oct. 1. Tech edge: Giants and Under, based on recent and totals trends.

TEXANS at BEARS

Romeo Crennel has won SU three of last five with Texans this year, though Houston just 1-4 vs. line away. Bears 1-5 vs. spread last six, 9-23 last 32 since late 2018 and 24-11 Under since mid-2018 (though Over last two). Tech edge: Texans and Under, based on recent and totals trends.

BRONCOS at PANTHERS

Panthers 0-2 as chalk this year, no covers last four in role since 2019. Carolina 2-4 vs. spread at Charlotte this year, 2-7-1 last 10 vs. spread as host since mid-2019. Into K.C. loss Sunday night, Denver actually 7-3 vs. spread last 10 away, and Broncos back to trending Under (3-0 last three, now 23-12 Under since mid-2018). Tech edge: Broncos and slight to Under, based on team and totals trends.

VIKINGS at BUCCANEERS

After covering six of seven, Vikes have dropped last three vs. line. Still, they’ve covered four straight on road, now 9-4 last 13 vs. line as visitors. Vikes also Over 8-3-1 this year and 17-5-1 Over in regular season since early 2019. Bucs Over 19-9 since Bruce Arians arrived last year. Tech edge: Over and slight to Vikings, based on totals and team trends.

CHIEFS at DOLPHINS

Dolphins have covered seven of last eight, nine of last 11, 18 of last 24 on board and are 13-5 last 18 as dogs. Into Denver game on Sunday night, Andy Reid no covers last three this year, only 3-3 vs. spread as visitor in 2020. Tech edge: Dolphins, based on recent trends.

COLTS at RAIDERS

Indy has covered four of last five away, also Over 3-1 last four and 7-5 in 2020, Over 10-7 since late last year. Raiders Over 8-3-1 this year, Over 3-1-1 at Allegiant Stadium. Raiders 9-16-3 vs. line in second halves of season since 2016. Tech edge: Over and Colts, based on totals and team trends.

JETS at SEAHAWKS

Jets have covered four of last six, though only 1-4 vs. spread away. Jets also 5-3 Under last eight. Seahawks 4-2 vs. line at newly renamed Lumen Field, though a few close calls, also Under last four. Tech edge: Under and slight to Seahawks, based on totals and team trends.

FALCONS at CHARGERS

Falcons 4-3 SU and vs. line since Raheem Morris took over for Dan Quinn in October. Falcons also on 7-2 Under run. Bolts no covers last six, and 4-13-2 last 19 vs. line since mid-2019. Tech edge: Falcons and slight to Under, based on recent and totals trends.

SAINTS at EAGLES

Eagles Under last six, Saints Under last five. Saints have also won and covered last five, part of 9-0 SU surge. Tech edge: Under and Saints, based on totals and team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. 49ERS

Niners playing home games in Glendale, Ariz. They were just 1-4 vs. spread at Levi’s. Into Bills loss Monday night, San Francisco 4-2 Under last six. After shocking Pittsburgh on Monday, Washington has won and covered last two, also Under 4-1 last five. Tech edge: Under and slight to Washington, based on totals and recent trends.

STEELERS at BILLS

Steelers 4-1 vs. line away, though into beating 49ers on Monday, Bills had covered last three. Buffalo 7-3-1 as dog since last season and Over 7-3-1 in 2020. Tech edge: Slight to Bills and Under, based on team and totals trends.

RAVENS at BROWNS

Even after win at Tennessee, Browns just 2-5 vs. line last seven. Ravens have covered five of last six at Cleveland. Baltimore 7-3 last 10 vs. line in series, including winning last two by 24 ppg. Tech edge: Ravens, based on series trends.

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