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Trends for NFL Week 17

By Bruce Marshall  (Point Spread Weekly) 

December 25, 2019 01:37 PM
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Richard Sherman and the 49ers have the edge vs. the Seahawks based on recent trends.
© Imagn

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON

Bill O'Brien and the Texans are 3-5 ATS last eight this year, but did win and cover at Tennessee on Dec. 15, and Houston only 2-6 vs. spread last eight at NRG. Texans have, however, won and covered last five as series host. Titans 6-3 SU and vs. line with Ryan Tannehill at QB, also “over” 8-1 last nine TY. Edge-“Over” and slight to Titans, based on “totals” and team trends. 

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI

Browns 0-5 SU and ATS last five away TY, though Bengals just 1-5-1 vs. spread TY at Paul Brown. Cincy still 8-2 vs. line last 10 in series though no cover Dec. 8 at Cleveland. Edge-slight to Bengals, based on extended trends. 

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA

Bears on 17-5 “under” run since mid-2018, Vikings “under” 9-4-1 last 14 at home, and series “under” 4-1 last five meetings. Bears on 2-9 spread skid since end of September. Edge-“Under” and slight to Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends. 

INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE

Jaguars on 1-6 SU and spread skid into this 2019 finale. Colts 8-3 last 11 vs. line on road since late 2018. Jacksonville was 6-0-1 vs. line last seven in series until Indianapolis won Nov. 17 at Lucas Oil. Edge-Colts, based on recent trends. 

ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY

Matt Ryan and Falcons 5-2 SU and vs. line since bye week. Bucs 0-6 vs. spread at Raymond James in 2019. TB also 12-4 “over” since late 2018, and series “over” 6-1 last seven meetings. Edge-Falcons and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON at DALLAS

Redskins have covered three of last four on road this season though have dropped three of last four vs. spread at Arlington and just 2-5 vs. spread last seven vs. Cowboys. “Overs” 6-2 last eight in series. Edge-slight to “over” and Cowboys, based on “totals” and team trends. 

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA

Saints have won and covered last six on road TY, now 13-3 vs. spread as visitor since LY. Panthers have covered last three in series. Still, skidding Carolina 0-7 SU, 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven in 2019 (lone cover in that stretch surprisingly vs. Saints at Superdome). Panthers also “over” 11-5 since late 2018. Edge-Saints and “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends. 

PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS

Giants have covered four of last five in series including Dec. 9 at Linc, and NY has also covered last three and four of five overall in 2019. But Giants just 2-7 vs. spread last nine at MetLife. Interestingly, last seven meetings are “over” between these two at MetLife. Edge-“Over” and Giants, based on “totals” and series trends.  

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE

Ravens have won last 11 in 2019 and 8-1 vs. spread last nine this season. Mike Tomlin 5-2 as dog in 2019. Underdog team 6-2-1 last nine series meetings. Steelers 13-3 “under” since late 2018 though first meeting was “over” on Oct. 6. Edge-“Under,” based on Steel “totals” trends.

NY JETS at BUFFALO

Bills 9-5-1 vs. spread in 2019 but only 3-4 vs. points at Orchard Park. Jets just 1-5 vs. points last six away in 2019. Road team has covered last three in series, including Bills win on opening day at MetLife. Buffalo “under” 12-4 since late 2018, though Jets 7-3 “over” last 10 away. Edge-slight to “under,” based on Bills’ “totals” trends.

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND

Patriots have won last 10 SU at home vs. Miami (since the 2008 “Wildcat” game) and have covered last seven and nine of last 10 vs. Dolphins at Gillette. Miami however on surprising 8-3 spread uptick since October. Bill Belichick “under” 17-7 in regular-season games since mid-2018, but Dolphins on 4-1 "over” run last five in 2019. Edge-Patriots and slight to “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.  

GREEN BAY at DETROIT

Lions on 1-9 spread skid since mid-October, also “over” 10-5 this season. Packers on 16-7 spread uptick since mid=2018. Edge-Packers and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends 

LA CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY

Philip Rivers 4-11 vs. line in 2019, 3-5 vs. line away (includes Mexico City) in what had been a good role as visitor prior to this season. Chargers also just 2-3 as dogs in 2019 in what had also previously been a good role. Chiefs have won and covered last five in 2019, also “under” each of those five games, Chargers “under” 11-6 since late 2018. Chiefs have covered five of last six in series. Edge-Chiefs and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

ARIZONA at LA RAMS

Rams have won and covered big the last five meetings, all wins by 16 or more. Cardinals 7-3-1 last 11 vs. line in 2019 (did lose vs. Rams in that stretch on Dec. 1 at Glendale, however). Rams only 4-8 vs. line last 12 at Coliseum in regular season though 3-3 in 2019. Last Rams game at Coliseum. Edge-Rams, based on series trends.

OAKLAND at DENVER

Broncos 8-3 last 11 vs. line in 2019 since start of October, and Raiders on 1-5 spread run into finale (though did cover most recent game at Chargers). Oakland has covered last four in series, however, including opening Monday night Sept. 9 at Coliseum. Last six “under” in series, Denver “under” 17-7 since mid-2018 (though Broncos “over” 5-2 last seven in 2019). Edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE

Niners 6-1 SU and vs. line away in 2019, and Seahawks only 2-5 vs. line at home this season. Niners have also lost last six SU at CenturyLink (1-5 vs. line), though in last five trips to Seattle the Seahawks were the better team and heavily favored (all spreads 9.5 or high in those games). Edge-49ers, based on recent trends.

Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet.

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