Trends for college, NFL games

By Bruce Marshall  () 

COLLEGE

 

AKRON at KENT STATE

Akron got rare cover vs. Ohio to improve to 2-12 vs. line for Tom Arth, though Zips have lost 19 straight dating to Nov. 1, 2018. Kent State won and covered this game 26-3 in 2019 and has covered last four vs. nearby rival. Golden Flashes have covered eight of last 10 since mid-2019 after Bowling Green romp. Tech edge: Kent State, based on team and series trends.

BUFFALO at BOWLING GREEN

Another loss for BGSU vs. Kent State, now 14-37 vs. line since Dino Babers left in 2015 and 3-11 vs. line since last year for Scot Loeffler. Falcons also 2-11 last 13 as home dogs. Buffalo 28-12-3 last three-plus seasons for Lance Leipold after Miami (Ohio) win. Bulls have also won last three SU, all by double digits, and covered last six in series. Tech edge: Buffalo, based on team and series trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BALL STATE

Before last season’s 27-20 win, Cards had dropped 10 in row SU vs. NIU and had failed to cover seven straight in series. Ball State also just 6-12 vs. line last 18 in Muncie after non-cover vs. EMU last week. Thomas Hammock is 3-2 as MAC dog since last year for Huskies but 0-2 in that role this season after last week’s lopsided 48-10 loss to Central Michigan. 

TOLEDO at EASTERN MICHIGAN

EMU great road mark lately but just 2-6 last eight vs. spread at Rynearson Stadium. Eagles, however, are 3-0-1 vs. line last four in this series. Toledo did win 2020 opener vs. BGSU but still just 4-10-1 vs. line since late 2018. Rockets have also failed to cover eight straight on road after close loss to WMU. Tech edge: EMU, based on series and team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN

CMU on 12-4 spread run (2-0 in 2020) since Jim McElwain arrived in 2019. Road team has covered last eight in series. WMU was 3-10 last 13 vs. line as visitor before opening win at Akron. Tech edge: Slight to CMU, based on recent trends.

UTAH STATE at WYOMING

A tough start for Utags, 0-4 SU and vs. line. Coach Gary Andersen forced out after Nov. 5 Nevada loss, and Utah State 4-10 vs. spread last 14 since mid-2019. Craig Bohl had covered three straight in series before close loss last year. Cowboys 8-2 vs. spread last 10 in Laramie. Tech edge: Wyoming, based on team trends.

TULANE at TULSA

Tulane has covered last five this year, now on 16-7 spread uptick since late 2018. Green Wave have won and covered last three in series. Road team 4-1 vs. line in Tulsa games this year. Golden Hurricane 1-1 vs. line at home, 3-5 last eight vs. points as host. Tech edge: Tulane, based on team trends. 

SYRACUSE at LOUISVILLE

Louisville’s Scott Satterfield 6-4 vs. line at home since last year, and home team has won and covered big last three in series. Cards have also won and covered five of last six meetings. Tech edge: Louisville, based on series trends.

PURDUE at MINNESOTA

Purdue on 8-3 spread uptick since late last year and had covered eight straight as a dog before NU last week. Gophers have won and covered four of last five meetings, but P.J. Fleck 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven in regular season. Tech edge: Purdue, based on recent trends. 

NEW MEXICO at AIR FORCE

Bob Davie had great spread success vs. Air Force last eight years, covering all but one and winning three of five outright 2013-17. Rocky Long, now Lobos’ DC, won all seven outright vs. Falcons while at San Diego State. UNM only 6-16 last 22 on board but has covered two in row. Tech edge: New Mexico, based on extended trends. 

UCLA at OREGON

Chip Kelly returns to Eugene. He did play at Autzen Stadium in 2018, when Bruins (+ 10) lost 42-21. After Cal win, Kelly 11-15 vs. line since arriving at UCLA, 4-5 vs. line on Pac-12 trail. Ducks only 3-4 vs. spread last seven vs. Pac-12 at home, though did beat Stanford in opener. Tech edge: Slight to Oregon, based on team trends. 

IOWA at PENN STATE

James Franklin 0-4 SU and vs. line in 2020, now on 2-7 spread skid since late 2019. Penn State, however, has beaten Iowa last four SU. Kirk Ferentz is 16-8-1 vs. spread last 25 as Big Ten visitor. Tech edge: Iowa, based on recent trends. 

VIRGINIA TECH at PITT

Hokies 1-3 vs. line on road in 2020, 1-5 last six vs. spread away from Blacksburg. Pitt had covered five straight in series before last year’s 28-0 Virginia Tech win. Tech edge: Pitt, based on team and extended series trends.

WAKE FOREST at DUKE

Wake has pounded Duke the last two seasons and has won and covered three of last four meetings. Deacons have covered last five in 2020 and are 6-1 vs. spread this season. David Cutcliffe only 2-5-1 last eight vs. spread vs. ACC in Durham if counting ND game last year. Tech edge: Wake, based on recent team and series trends.

EAST CAROLINA at TEMPLE

ECU 5-3 vs. spread last eight away (2-2 in 2020), though has lost last five SU vs. Owls (1-4 vs. line, with cover in 2019). Owls 2-5 vs. spread last seven on board since late 2019, including late back-door last week vs. UCF. Tech edge: Slight to ECU, based on recent trends.

CINCINNATI at UCF

UCF on 5-12 spread skid since early 2019 and has dropped six of last seven vs. number in Orlando. Cincy has covered four straight and six of last eight away from Nippert. Bearcats won 27-24 at home last year but had dropped previous three in series. Tech edge: Cincy, based on recent trends. 

MISSISSIPPI STATE at GEORGIA

MSU no covers last five since opening win over LSU. Mike Leach on 5-16 spread skid dating to late 2018 at WSU. Home team 5-0 vs. line in Georgia games this season (Bulldogs 2-0 in Athens; Florida game neutral). Kirby Smart 14-6 Under since last season, MSU Under last five in 2020. Tech edge: Under and Georgia, based on totals and team trends.

APPALACHIAN STATE at COASTAL CAROLINA

App only 1-6 vs. line in 2020 and 1-7 last eight on board but also could be in rare dog role (Mounties 3-0 getting points since 2018). App has won last three and covered last two vs. Coastal. But Chanticleers 7-0 SU in 2020 and on 9-3-1 spread uptick since mid-2019. App Under 6-1 in 2020, though this game ended 56-37 in 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Coastal, based on recent trends. 

CLEMSON at FLORIDA STATE

This used to be a big game not that long ago. Dabo Swinney has won last five SU vs. Seminoles and covered last three. But Tigers just 2-6 vs. line in 2020. Clemson also 1-2 vs. line on ACC road after 9-1-1 previous 11 vs. spread against ACC away from Death Valley. FSU 2-6 SU and vs. line for Mike Norvell and 1-5 last six vs. line at Tallahassee. Noles also just 2-6 last eight as dogs. Tech edge: Clemson, based on team and series trends. 

NAVY at SOUTH FLORIDA

Road team has covered six of last seven USF games this season (Bulls 0-2 at home in that span vs. line). USF 2-10 vs. spread last 12 in Tampa vs. FBS foes. Navy down some in 2020 but still 2-1 vs. line away and 7-2 vs. points away from Annapolis since early last year. Tech edge: Navy, based on team trends. 

MISSOURI at SOUTH CAROLINA

Home team is 5-0 vs. line in Mizzou games this year (Tigers 2-0 home, 0-3 away). Tigers now on 0-8 skid vs. spread away from Columbia since late 2018. Fired Gamecocks coach Will Muschamp 4-2-1 vs. spread last seven SEC games at William-Brice. Tech edge: South Carolina, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at MARYLAND

MSU 1-3 SU and vs. line this year for Mel Tucker, 5-12 since 2019, 6-15 last 21 vs. number on board since late 2018. But road team has covered last three meetings. Terps have also covered three of last four against Spartans. Tech edge: Maryland, based on recent trends. 

INDIANA at OHIO STATE

IU rolling at 4-0 SU and vs. line. Hoosiers on 11-3 spread uptick since early 2019. Indiana 6-1 last seven as dog as well. Road team has also covered last four in this series. Since eight-game cover streak for OSU last season, Buckeyes only 3-5 last eight vs. spread, though Ryan Day has covered six of last eight at Horseshoe. Tech edge: Indiana, based on recent and series trends.

LIBERTY at NC STATE

Flames 8-0 SU, 6-2 vs. line in 2020, now 9-0 SU since late 2019 and 9-3 last 12 vs. spread since late last season. If getting points, note Hugh Freeze 5-1 last six as dog. Also 2-0 vs. line against ACC in 2020. But Wolfpack improved this year and 6-2 vs. line in 2020 (4-0 in Raleigh). NC State also on 9-3 Over run. Tech edge: Slight to Liberty and Over, based on recent and totals trends. 

MICHIGAN at RUTGERS

Jim Harbaugh only 8-13 vs. spread last 21 on board, no wins or covers last three this year and has dropped two of three vs. line against Rutgers since 78-0 win in 2016. Scarlet Knights have covered two of four for Greg Schiano. Tech edge: Slight to Rutgers, based on recent trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at ARMY

Eagles only 3-7 vs. spread last 10 away from Statesboro. Army on 13-8 Under run since 2019, GSU on 8-2 Under run. This game might go fast! Tech edge: Under and slight to Army, based on totals and team trends. 

USC at UTAH

Home team has won last seven meetings outright and 8-1 vs. spread in nine clashes since Utes joined Pac-12 in 2011. Kyle Whittingham entered 2020 on 21-10 spread uptick and has won and covered seven of last eight as host in conference. Tech edge: Utah, based on team and series trends.

UNLV at COLORADO STATE

Rebels off to 0-4 SU and spread start for Marcus Arroyo. Back to Tony Sanchez era, UNLV now 2-9 vs. spread last 11 as Mountain West visitor. CSU 5-3 vs. line last eight against MWC at Fort Collins (1-0 last year), and Rams have won and covered last four vs. UNLV dating to 2011. Tech edge: CSU, based on team and extended series trends.

FIU at WESTERN KENTUCKY

WKU finally got a cover in FAU game, but that was first in last 11 (1-8-2 vs. line since late 2019). FIU had covered three straight in series before 20-14 loss last year. Butch Davis only 5-12 vs. spread since 2019.  Tech edge: Slight to FIU, based on recent trends. 

RICE at NORTH TEXAS

UNT on 5-18 spread skid since mid-2018 (2-3 this year). Owls on 12-8 spread uptick since late 2018 and have covered last two in series. Tech edge: Rice, based on team trends. 

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON

Kevin Sumlin only 3-9 vs. spread last year, also 2-4 last six vs. line on Pac-12 road but did cover 2020 opener vs. USC. After Oregon State non-cover last week, Huskies only 3-9 vs. points last 12 as Pac-12 hosts (1-9 if excluding WSU). Washington won and covered 51-27 last year in Tucson. Tech edge: Slight to Washington, based on recent UA woes. 

CALIFORNIA at OREGON STATE

Bears have covered seven of their last nine on Pac-12 road after UCLA loss. Road team has covered in nine of last 10 OSU games (2-0 this year). Beavers did score 21-17 upset at Berkeley last year. Tech edge: Cal, based on team trends. 

WASHINGTON STATE at STANFORD

Wazzu has won last four and covered last five in series. Tree on 3-12 spread skid since late 2018. Tech edge: WSU, based on team trends. 

SAN JOSE STATE at FRESNO STATE

SJSU 4-0 vs. line in 2020, 13-4-1 last 18 since late 2018. Fresno 3-1 SU and vs. line for Kalen DeBoer but just 5-9-1 vs. spread last 15 since early 2019. Tech edge: San Jose, based on team trends. 

UTSA at SOUTHERN MISS

USM 1-6 vs. line in 2020, now on 1-9 spread slide since late 2019. Road team has covered last three meetings. Golden Eagles also on 3-10 Under run. Tech edge: UTSA and Under, based on team and totals trends. 

SAN DIEGO STATE at NEVADA

Wolf Pack has opened 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. spread in 2020. Nevada has won and covered last two meetings. Pack 8-2 vs. spread last 10 in Reno vs. FBS foes. Aztecs now on 15-3 Under run since late 2018. Tech edge: Nevada and Under, based on team and totals trends. 

ILLINOIS at NEBRASKA

Scott Frost 1-2 SU and vs. line this year, 2-6 as chalk in 2019 and 4-11 overall vs. points since last year. Frost did cover seven of last eight in 2018. Lovie Smith has lost six of last seven SU since late 2019, 3-4 vs. line in those. Lovie on 8-3 Under run, though this series has gone way Over the last two years. Tech edge: Slight to Over, based on recent series totals trends. 

HOUSTON at SMU

Dana Holgorsen spinning his wheels at Houston, 7-11 SU, 9-9 vs. spread since last year. Also no covers last four and five of last six as dog. Did cover last year vs. SMU, but Mustangs had covered previous four meetings. Sonny Dykes 7-3 vs. points last 10 in Dallas. Tech edge: SMU, based on team trends. 

LSU at ARKANSAS

Focus on current trends here. Razorbacks 6-1 vs. line in 2020, LSU 2-3 vs. line. Hogs have covered last two meetings. Tech edge: Arkansas, based on recent trends.

WISCONSIN at NORTHWESTERN

Wildcats have covered last three and five of last six meetings. NU on seven-game spread unbeaten run (5-0-2; 4-0 in 2020). Pat Fitzgerald 17-9-1 as dog since 2016. Badgers 4-5 vs. spread last nine as Big Ten visitors. Tech edge: NU, based on team and series trends. 

KENTUCKY at ALABAMA

Tide has covered first three at home this year. Wildcats 7-3 last 10 as dogs (2-1 this year). Kentucky Under 5-2 in 2020. Tech edge: Slight to UK and Under, based on team and totals trends. 

FLORIDA at VANDERBILT

Vandy 6-13 last 19 vs. spread, 1-8 vs. line last nine at home vs. FBS foes. Dan Mullen has won and covered last two vs. Commodores, and Gators have covered last three in series. Tech edge: Florida, based on team trends. 

OKLAHOMA STATE at OKLAHOMA

Bedlam! Road team has covered last three and seven of last eight meetings. Mike Gundy 11-3 last 14 as dog. Tech edge: OSU, based on team and series trends. 

KANSAS STATE at IOWA STATE

Chris Klieman 9-3 as dog with K-State since last year. KSU now 24-8 as dog since 2016 and the final stage of Bill Snyder. Wildcats have also covered five of last six in 2020. Cyclones 1-5 last six as Ames chalk. KSU has covered last two meetings. Tech edge: KSU, based on team trends.

GEORGIA STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA

GSU on 6-2 Over run since late 2019, though USA on 15-5 Under run since last year. This game went Under last year. Jaguars 10-5-1 last 16 vs. line since mid-2019. Tech edge: Slight to USA and Under, based on team and totals trends.

TEXAS at KANSAS

Les Miles 0-6-1 vs. line this year, 0-7-1 since late last year, 1-9-1 last 11 on board. Jayhawks, however, have covered last four in series, last three vs. Tom Herman. Longhorns 4-2 last six laying double digits. KU also Over 8-0-1 since late 2019, Horns Over 13-7 since last year. Tech edge: Over and slight to Texas, based on totals and recent KU woes.

MTSU at TROY

Troy 7-12 vs. spread since Chip Lindsey arrived last year, Troy 3-6 vs. spread at home for him. MTSU has covered four of last six this year and 6-3 last nine as dog. Tech edge: MTSU, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at AUBURN

Vols no wins or covers last four this year after an eight-game SU win streak. Gus Malzahn 7-3 vs. spread last 10 at Jordan-Hare (2-1 this year). Tennessee on 17-7 Under run since late 2018, Tigers Under 9-3 last 12 since mid-2019. Tech edge: Auburn and Under, based on team and totals trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at TEXAS STATE

Ark State has won last five meetings, all by 18 or more, and covered in four of those. Bobcats, however, have covered all three as San Marcos dogs this year. Even after high-scoring game vs. Georgia Southern last week, TSU on 20-9 Under run. Tech edge: Arkansas State and Under, based on series and totals trends. 

BOISE STATE at HAWAII

Boise 3-3 as visiting chalk since last year after 36-16 mark in role 2008-18. Hawaii 11-25 vs. line at Aloha Stadium since 2015. Tech edge: Hawaii, based on team trends.

 

NFL

 

ARIZONA at SEATTLE

Rematch of Cards’ 40-34 OT win Oct. 25 at Glendale, rare home win in series. Road team 9-2-1 last 12 meetings. Arizona has covered five straight at CenturyLink. Kliff Kingsbury 9-2-1 vs. spread away since last year. Seahawks on 7-3 Over run. Tech edge: Cards and slight to Over, based on series and totals trends. 

PHILADELPHIA at CLEVELAND

Eagles only 6-11 last 17 on board, but Browns have dropped last four vs. line this year and 3-9 last 12 vs. spread since late 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Eagles, based on team trends. 

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS

Falcons have picked up pace, 3-1 SU and vs. line since Raheem Morris took over for Dan Quinn. Saints 2-3 vs. spread at Superdome this year, 3-7 last 10 vs. line as hosts. Saints Over 9-2 last 11 regular-season games. Tech edge: Falcons and Over, based on team and totals trends.

DETROIT at CAROLINA

Matt Rhule just 1-4 vs. line at home (4-1 away), 0-2 as chalk. Carolina 1-7-1 last nine vs. line in Charlotte, 0-4 as chalk dating to mid-2019. Lions 3-2 vs. line away this year compared with 0-3 at home, on 8-4 Over run since late 2019. Tech edge: Lions and Over, based on team and totals trends.

NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON

Bill Belichick vs. Romeo Crennel, one of Belichick’s first disciples to go out on his own and become a head coach. Into Ravens game Sunday night, Belichick was 1-4 vs. line last five this year. But if getting points note 14-5 mark since 2010 (1-2 this year, but close to 3-0). Texans 2-7 vs. line this year, 2-8-1 last 11 regular season vs. spread. Tech edge: Patriots, based on team trends. 

PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE

Pittsburgh 9-0 SU, 7-2 vs. line this year. Tempted to throw out 2019 results with no Big Ben almost entire year. Steelers Over 6-2 last eight this year. Jaguars have covered last two but still just 6-11 last 17 vs. line since mid-2019 (3-5 this year). Jaguars also Over 13-9 last 22. Tech edge: Steelers and Over, based on team and totals trends. 

GREEN BAY at INDIANAPOLIS

Pack 6-3 vs. line this year and on 7-4 Over run since late 2019. If getting points, note Colts rarely home dogs (1-0 since 2018). Tech edge: Slight to Packers and Over, based on team and totals trends.

CINCINNATI at WASHINGTON

Joe Burrow’s Bengals 3-2 vs. number away. Cincy also Over 10-3 since late last year (6-3 Over in 2020). Washington has covered only one of last eight this year (1-4-3). Tech edge: Bengals, based on recent trends. 

TENNESSEE at BALTIMORE

Titans 0-3 vs. line away this year, but back to scene of crime in playoffs last January when they won at Baltimore. Titans Over 17-5 since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB midway through 2019, also 15-7 SU in that span. Ravens only 4-4 vs. line last eight as hosts. Tech edge: Over and slight to Titans, based on totals and team trends.

DALLAS at MINNESOTA

Cowboys 0-4 vs. line away this year, now on 0-6 spread skid away since late 2019 and 1-8 overall vs. points in 2020. Cowboys also Under four straight. After Monday vs. Bears, Vikings on 6-1 spread uptick, also Over 5-2 last seven. Tech edge: Vikings, based on recent trends.

KANSAS CITY at LAS VEGAS

Revenge for K.C. after 40-32 home loss Oct. 11, now 7-1 vs. line last eight away from Arrowhead. Only 4-4 vs. number last eight as series visitor after previous domination in role. Andy Reid still 15-3 last 18 vs. number since mid-2019. Raiders only 2-2 vs. line at Allegiant Stadium, also 6-2-1 Over in 2020. Tech edge: Chiefs, based on extended trends. 

MIAMI at DENVER

Dolphins on 16-5 spread run since early 2019 and have covered last five and seven of last eight this year. If dog, note Denver 11-7 last 18 in role (11-4 if throwing out Chiefs), also Over 3-1 last four and 4-2 last six this year. Tech edge: Slight to Dolphins and Over, based on team and totals trends. 

NEW YORK JETS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Jets have covered two of last three after dropping first six vs. spread. Chargers 1-7-1 last nine as chalk, 2-10-1 last 13 in role. Bolts Over last six in 2020, though Jets Under four of last five. Tech edge: Slight to Jets and Over, based on team and totals trends. 

LOS ANGELES RAMS at TAMPA BAY

Rams have dropped last two vs. spread on road after covering nine of previous 11 away. Rams lost to Bruce Arians 55-40 at Coliseum last year. Bucs Over 6-4 this year, 18-8 since last year. Arians Over 33-16 since midway through 2016 with Cards. Tech edge: Slight to Over, based on totals trends.

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