Trends for college, NFL games this week

By Bruce Marshall  () 

COLLEGE

 

TULANE at HOUSTON

Houston hopes to play Thursday night after three postponements. Cougars were 0-2 as chalk last year for Dana Holgorsen. Tulane has covered three of four meetings since Willie Fritz arrived in 2016. Fritz on 11-6 spread uptick. Tech edge: Tulane, based on team trends. 

LOUISVILLE at GEORGIA TECH

Louisville is 4-1 as chalk for Scott Satterfield since mid-2019, and he is 14-4-1 as chalk since late 2017 at Appalachian State. After recent spread losses, Geoff Collins just 4-10-1 vs. number since arriving at Tech in 2019. Tech edge: Louisville, based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY

Mike Leach made bright debut at MSU, but he was only 4-11 in previous 15 vs. line at Washington State and lost last week vs. Arkansas. Leach, though, is 15-8 as dog last 23 in role with WSU and MSU. Home team has won and covered last five meetings, and Mark Stoops was 6-2 vs. points at Lexington in 2019 before last week’s loss to Ole Miss. Tech edge: Slight to UK, based on series home trends. 

DUKE at SYRACUSE

David Cutcliffe lost 49-6 to Syracuse last year, one of his worst efforts with Duke. Cutcliffe on 9-15-2 spread skid. Tech edge: Syracuse, based on recent Duke woes. 

PITT at BOSTON COLLEGE

Panthers were 4-1 vs. line as visitors in 2019. BC 2-0 as dog for Jeff Hafley, 16-5-1 as short since 2017. Last year’s meeting was first since 2004, when both still were in Big East. Tech edge: Slight to BC if dog, based on extended trends.

NC STATE at VIRGINIA

Even after win at Pitt, NC State on 3-11 spread skid since early 2019. Wolfpack also no covers eight of last nine away from home. Tech edge: Virginia, based on NCS woes. 

EAST CAROLINA at SOUTH FLORIDA

USF has won last five outright in series and 4-1-1 last six vs. line against ECU. But Bulls only 4-8 vs. spread last 12 in Tampa. Pirates on 6-2 uptick as underdog since mid-2019 for Mike Houston. Tech edge: Slight to ECU, based on recent team trends. 

MIAMI at CLEMSON

Hurricanes hot 3-0 SU and vs. line to begin 2020. Dabo Swinney has won last two vs. Miami by combined 96-3 score in 2015 and ’17 ACC title games. Though Clemson has failed to cover mountainous numbers first three this season, Swinney was 11-4 vs. line laying mostly big points last year and was 19-5-1 vs. spread last 25 entering season. He had also covered seven straight as ACC host before non-cover vs. Virginia. Tech edge: Slight to Clemson, based on Swinney trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA

Mack Brown 5-0 SU, 4-1 vs. line last five since late 2019. Tar Heels have lost last four SU in series, though it took six OTs last season. Justin Fuente 4-0 as dog with Hokies in 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Virginia Tech, based on team and series trends.

TENNESSEE at GEORGIA

Vols on eight-game SU win streak (and 8-2 last 10 vs. line). UT has lost last 3 SU vs. Georgia, not closer than 26 in any of those games. Jeremy Pruitt has covered five straight as dog. Dawgs just 1-5 as Athens chalk in 2019 before win over Auburn last week. Tech edge: Tennessee, based on recent trends.

OKLAHOMA vs. TEXAS

Tom Herman 3-0 vs. line in regular season vs. OU, and he’s 16-4 as a dog since 2015 at Houston. Horns have covered six straight in regular season vs. Sooners. OU just 10-18-1 last 29 on board. Tech edge: Texas, based on team and series trends. 

TEXAS TECH at IOWA STATE

Matt Campbell 4-11 last 15 as ISU chalk. Campbell 1-3 vs. line last four after facing OU but is 4-0 SU and vs. line against Texas Tech. Matt Wells just 3-5 as dog with Red Raiders. Tech edge: ISU, based on series trends.

ALABAMA at OLE MISS

Nick Saban is 20-0 SU against former assistants. Lane Kiffin 1-1 vs. line with Rebels after 10-4 mark last year vs. spread at FAU. Saban 62 ppg last three vs. Ole Miss, though only 2-1 vs. line in those games and just 5-7 last 12 as SEC visiting chalk. Rebs were 5-1-1 as dogs last year for Matt Luke and 1-1 in role thus far with Kiffin. Tech edge: Slight to Ole Miss, based on team trends. 

ARKANSAS at AUBURN

Gus Malzahn has won and covered last four in this special rivalry (for him), with all of those wins by 31 or more. Malzahn 8-3 last 11 as regular-season chalk. Tech edge: Auburn, based on series trends.

MISSOURI at LSU

Even in 2019 championship season, LSU only 2-2 as Baton Rouge SEC chalk, now 2-4 last six in role. Eli Drinkwitz now 4-1 as dog since last year at App State and 10-6 overall vs. spread. First meeting since 2016. Tech edge: Slight to Mizzou, based on team trends. 

FLORIDA at TEXAS A&M

After covering 13 of his first 16 with Aggies, Jimbo Fisher has dropped eight of last 12 on board with A&M. Dan Mullen, meanwhile, is 6-2 vs. spread as SEC visitor since taking over Gators in 2018. Tech edge: Florida, based on team trends.  

KANSAS STATE at TCU

Frogs are 5-15-1 as Fort Worth chalk since 2016 and have lost and failed to cover four of last five vs. K-State. Chris Klieman 7-2 as dog since 2019 with Cats, now 22-7 as dog since 2016 dating to final years of Bill Snyder era. Tech edge: KSU, based on team and series trends. 

SOUTH CAROLINA at VANDERBILT

Since arriving in Columbia, Will Muschamp has owned Vandy, winning and covering all four. Derek Mason 4-11 spread slump since late 2018. Tech edge: SC, based on series trends.   

TEXAS STATE at TROY

Much-improved Texas State has been more active than most teams and improving vs. number (3-1), also has covered last four as dog since late 2019. Troy on 5-11 regular-season spread skid (5-9 for Chip Lindsey), though Trojans have won and covered last three in series. Tech edge: Texas State, based on recent trends. 

ULM at LIBERTY

Things not going well at ULM, 0-4 SU and 1-3 vs. line, now 9-20 vs. points since late 2017 for Matt Viator. Tech edge: Liberty, based on team trends. 

UTSA at BYU

UTSA has covered seven of last eight as dog since mid-2019. Kalani Sitake off quickly in 2020 at 3-0 for BYU but just 4-9 vs. line last season. Tech edge: UTSA, based on team trends. 

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at SOUTHERN MISS

FAU finally made debut Saturday after 10-4 vs. line for Lane Kiffin last year. Though after non-cover vs. Charlotte, Willie Taggart just 8-14-1 vs. spread since 2018 at FSU and now FAU. USM won at UNT last week, breaking six-game SU and spread skid. Tech edge: FAU, based on recent trends.

TEMPLE at NAVY

Owls were 3-0 SU, 2-0-1 vs. line against Mids from 2016-18. Navy 3-0-1 vs. line last four years after facing Air Force and has covered six of last seven in Annapolis. Owls were 8-5 vs. line for Rod Carey last year but only 2-4 outside Philly and yet to play in 2020. Tech edge: Slight to Navy, based on team trends. 

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at FIU

Home side has covered last four in this series. Rick Stockstill, however, is 8-5 vs. line last 13 as visitor (1-1 in 2020). Butch Davis only 2-5 as chalk since last season. Tech edge: Slight to FIU, based on series home trends.

UTEP at LOUISIANA TECH

UTEP 3-1 SU (2-2 vs. line), taking advantage of soft early slate. Miners were 10-25-1 vs. spread previous three seasons. Road team has also covered last four in series. Skip Holtz was 3-7 as Ruston chalk in 2017-18 but 3-2 in role last year. Tech edge: Slight to Louisiana Tech, based on extended trends.

FLORIDA STATE at NOTRE DAME

Seminoles skidding 13-26-1 vs. line since 2017 (0-2 this year). Also 4-10 as dogs since 2017. Irish 6-3 vs. spread at South Bend since 2019, also on 6-1 uptick vs. points. Tech edge: Notre Dame, based on recent trends. 

CHARLOTTE at NORTH TEXAS

UNT on 5-19 skid last 24 vs. spread since mid-2018. But 49ers only 3-5 vs. spread last eight away from home. Tech edge: Slight to Charlotte, based on recent UNT negatives.

MARSHALL at WESTERN KENTUCKY

Series has slanted to WKU, which has covered last six meetings. Though Hilltoppers on 0-4-1 spread skid since late 2019. Herd is 11-4 last 15 as dog. Tech edge: WKU, based on series trends.

 

NFL

 

TAMPA BAY at CHICAGO

Underdog team 3-1 in Bears games this season. If Bears are dogs here, note only 1-5 as dogs since 2019 after 9-2-1 as home dogs previous three seasons. Bruce Arians’ teams Over 30-13 dating to mid-2016 and Arizona days. Tech edge: Over and slight to Bears, based on totals and recent trends. 

CAROLINA at ATLANTA

Into Green Bay last week, Falcons 0-3 vs. line this year, though they’ve won and covered last five in series. Atlanta also Over first three in 2020. Panthers Over 14-6-1 last 21 since late 2018 (2-1-1 Over for Matt Rhule). Tech edge: Over and slight to Falcons, based on totals and series trends.

LAS VEGAS at KANSAS CITY

Into Patriots game Monday night, Chiefs 12-0 SU, 11-1 vs. line last 12 since mid-2019. K.C. has won last 5 SU vs. Raiders and 4-1 vs. line in those games. Also covered four straight in series at Arrowhead after road-oriented trends earlier. Raiders Over first four in 2020 after 6-1 Under to close 2019. Tech edge: Chiefs and slight to Over, based on team and totals trends. 

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND

Bill Belichick 15-6 vs. line as regular-season home chalk since early 2017 (2-0 in 2020). Broncos 7-3 last 10 as dogs for Vic Fangio. Tech edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.

LA RAMS at WASHINGTON

Sean McVay narrowly failed to get cover at Bills, so he’s 7-1 SU and vs. line last eight early kickoffs in Eastern time zone or London. Rams are also 8-3 vs. points last 11 as visitors. Washington on 7-13-1 spread skid since late 2018, 3-7-1 last 11 vs. line at FedEx. Washington Over 6-1 last seven, and Rams Over last four away. Tech edge: Rams and Over, based on team and totals trends.

JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON

Jaguars have covered four of last six as dogs, though Houston has won last three SU in series, covering three. But Texans no wins or covers last five in regular season, 2-8-1 overall last 11 vs. line since late 2019. Last four Under in series. Tech edge: Under and Jaguars, based on totals and recent trends. 

BUFFALO at TENNESSEE

Bills covered at Raiders but still just 1-4 vs. line last five away, though they have won and covered last two years vs. Titans. Bills Over all four in 2020 after Under 15-4 previous 19. Titans 12-4 SU with Ryan Tannehill at QB and 3-0 SU but 0-3 vs. line in 2020. Titans also on 12-4 Over run. Tech edge: Slight to Over and Titans, based on totals and team trends. 

ARIZONA at NY JETS

Jets 0-4 SU and vs. line after Denver loss. Kliff Kingsbury 12-7-1 vs. spread since taking over Cards last year. Arizona surprising 3-0-1 Under in 2020. Tech edge: Cards, based on recent trends.

PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH

Into Sunday night’s game at 49ers, Birds no wins or covers last four since late 2019, also 7-13 vs. spread since beginning of 2019, so perhaps that was a corner-turning win and cover on West Coast. Even with that win, Philly just 14-23 vs. line since Super win over Pats. Tech edge: Steelers, based on recent trends. 

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE

Ravens had 14-game SU regular-season win streak snapped by Chiefs. Also were 11-1 vs. line previous 12 regular-season games before K.C. Cincy has actually covered four of last five in series, though lost last meeting 49-13 in 2019. Bengals 10-3 last 13 as visiting dogs. Tech edge: Slight to Ravens, based on team trends.

MIAMI at SAN FRANCISCO

Dolphins 11-5 last 16 vs. spread since mid-2019 for Brian Flores. Miami also 6-2 last eight as road dog. Dolphins Over 8-3 last 11 since mid-2019 (2-2 Over in 2020). After Sunday night loss to Eagles, Niners still 7-4 Over their last 11 but just 3-5-1 last nine as Levi’s chalk. Tech edge: Over and Dolphins, based on totals and team trends.

NY GIANTS at DALLAS

Cowboys have now won and covered last six in series. Giants, however, are 2-0 as road dogs this year and 11-3 in role since 2018. Dallas 0-4 vs. line in 2020. Tech edge: Slight to Giants, based on team trends.  

INDIANAPOLIS at CLEVELAND

Browns have covered last two after 5-12-1 spread skid and are 4-2-1 last seven vs. line at home. Colts, however, have won and covered last three in 2020. Tech edge: Slight to Colts, based on recent trends. 

MINNESOTA at SEATTLE

Vikes have notched a pair of spread covers in a row but did lose last Dec. 2 at Seattle 37-30. Seahawks have squeezed out a couple of home covers in their 4-0 start, also Over 4-0-1 since late 2019. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends. 

LA CHARGERS at NEW ORLEANS

Saints just 2-5 last seven vs. line at Superdome, also Over first four in 2020 and six of seven since late 2019. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends.

 

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