Trends for CFB, NFL games this week

By Bruce Marshall  () 

COLLEGE

GEORGIA STATE at ARKANSAS STATE

GSU on 1-7-3 spread skid as road dog since 2018, though did win and cover at home vs. ASU in 2019.  Tech edge: Slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends. 

SMU at TULANE

SMU has won last five meetings outright, covering four. Mustangs 8-1 vs. spread in first five games of season last two years. Green Wave 5-0 as home dog since 2018. Tech edge: Slight to SMU, based on series trends.

BYU at HOUSTON

Houston finally on the board with win over Tulane. Though BYU is 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line, it was 0-5 as visiting chalk last year, then won 2020 opener at Navy. Tech edge: Slight to Houston, based on extended trends. 

BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA TECH

BC is 3-0 as dog for Jeff Hafley, and Eagles now 17-5-1 as short since 2017. BC has won last two and covered last three in series. Virginia Tech has covered four straight in Blacksburg but had dropped eight of previous 10 vs. spread at Lane Stadium. Tech edge: BC, based on team and series trends. 

PITT at MIAMI

Panthers were 4-1 vs. line as visitors in 2019, though failed on road last week at BC. Miami has won and covered last two and four of last five in series. Hurricanes had won and covered first three in 2020 before running into Clemson. Tech edge: Miami, based on series trends. 

SOUTH FLORIDA at TEMPLE

Owls were 6-1 vs. line at Linc last season in Rod Carey debut, now 9-2 last 11 vs. points as hosts. Tech edge: Temple, based on team trends. 

NAVY at EAST CAROLINA

Navy was 5-0 as chalk away from Annapolis in superb 2019 but already lost big in that role at Air Force. Teams haven’t met every year lately, but Mids have won and covered big last three since 2015, including 42-10 romp last year. Pirates 2-0 as dogs this season, 7-2 last nine in role for Mike Houston since early 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Navy, based on team trends. 

DUKE at NC STATE

David Cutcliffe only 5-5-1 as dog since 2019 but is 3-1 in role in 2020, and recall 25-12-1 mark as short from 2013-18. These long-standing Tobacco Road rivals haven’t played since 2013. NC State is 3-1 vs. spread early in 2020 but still just 5-12 last 17 on board since late 2018. Tech edge: Duke, based on extended trends. 

VIRGINIA at WAKE FOREST

Bronco Mendenhall on 18-12 spread uptick since 2018, including 2-1 this year. Cavs also 5-3 last eight vs. number as ACC visitors. Teams haven’t met since 2016. Tech edge: Slight to Virginia, based on team trends.

AUBURN at SOUTH CAROLINA

Will Muschamp 7-4-1 vs. line last 12 as SEC host. Gamecocks also 13-7 as dogs since 2017. First meeting since 2014. Tech edge: SC, based on team trends. 

NORTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA STATE

UNC is 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs. line last five dating to late 2019. Noles broke six-game spread skid at ND but still on 14-26-2 skid vs. spread since 2017. First meeting since 2016. Tech edge: UNC, based on team trends.

KANSAS at WEST VIRGINIA

KU was destroyed in first three this year, SU and spread skid now at five since late 2019. Road team has actually covered last six in series, but Les Miles teams at LSU and KU now on 7-17 spread skid last 24 since late 2015. WVU had dropped last four vs. line as Big 12 host before Baylor win. Tech edge: WVU, based on recent Miles marks.

LIBERTY at SYRACUSE

Hugh Freeze 4-1 last five as dog with Liberty. Also 5-2 last seven vs. points away from Lynchburg. Dino Babers only 4-8 last 12 on board since mid-2019. Orange did beat Flames in opener last year. Tech edge: Liberty, based on recent trends. 

CLEMSON at GEORGIA TECH

Dabo Swinney is 10-2-1 vs. spread last 13 against ACC foes away from Death Valley. Clemson has won last five meetings, 4-0-1 vs. line in those vs. GT. Even after Louisville win, Geoff Collins just 2-7 vs. line at Bobby Dodd Stadium since last year. Tech edge: Clemson, based on team and series trends. 

KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE

Earlier than usual on calendar for this border war. Remarkably, UK has beaten UT only twice since 17-12 win for Jerry Claiborne in 1984. Vols have covered seven of last eight meetings. UT saw eight-game SU win streak snapped at Georgia but still 8-3 last 11 on board. Mark Stoops was 8-4 as dog last two years before falling short vs. Auburn in opener. Tech edge: Tennessee, based on series trends. 

TEXAS STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA

USA on 8-3 spread uptick since mid-2019. Jaguars have covered last two meetings, though Bobcats did win outright last year. Tech edge: Slight to USA, based on recent trends. 

WESTERN KENTUCKY at UAB

WKU on 0-5-1 spread skid since late 2019. But Hilltoppers did win and cover last year, and WKU 6-4 as dog for Tyson Helton since last year (0-1 this year). Blazers only 1-3 vs. line early in 2020 but were 9-2-1 vs. spread at home vs. C-USA foes entering this season. Tech edge: UAB, based on extended trends.

OLE MISS at ARKANSAS

Lane Kiffin’s FAU and Ole Miss teams 12-5 vs. line since last year. Rebels also on 10-4-1 spread uptick since last year. Hogs had covered six straight in series before 2019 and have started 3-0 vs. line for Sam Pittman. Tech edge: Slight to Arkansas, based on extended trends. 

COASTAL CAROLINA at LOUISIANA

Note that ULL only 1-5 vs. line last six for Billy Napier since late 2019 (also no covers last four as chalk), all after 16-4-2 spread run. Teams have split last two years, with road team winning and covering each. Chanticleers 6-1 last seven as dogs since early 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Coastal Carolina, based on recent trends. 

TEXAS A&M at MISSISSIPPI STATE

If Mike Leach a dog, note 15-9 mark last 24 in role dating to Washington State days. MSU had won and covered three straight in series before 49-30 loss at A&M last year. Tech edge: Mississippi State, especially if dog, based on recent trends. 

CINCINNATI at TULSA

Tulsa on 6-2 spread uptick since mid-2019, including 5-1 last six as dog. Covered last year at Cincy. Bearcats only 3-6 last nine as chalk. Tech edge: Tulsa, based on recent trends.

UCF at MEMPHIS

UCF only 4-9 last 13 on board, though Ryan Silverfield now 0-3 vs. line as Memphis coach. Tigers also no covers last four at Liberty Bowl and lost last four outright to Knights. Memphis 1-2-1 vs. line in those games, though teams didn’t play in 2019. Tech edge: Slight to UCF, based on series trends.

ARMY at UTSA

Improved Roadrunners 3-0 as dogs this year and have actually covered eight of last nine in role. Army just 1-5 vs. spread last six away from West Point, though did win and cover 31-13 at Alamodome early last year. Tech edge: UTSA, based on team trends. 

LOUISVILLE at NOTRE DAME

No covers last three (0-2-1) in 2020 for Louisville after GT loss. Scott Satterfield 4-5-1 as dog with Cards, though did cover in opener last year vs. ND. Irish 10-5 last 15 vs. spread since early 2019 and 7-4 last 11 as South Bend chalk. Tech edge: Notre Dame, based on recent trends.

LSU at FLORIDA

Ed Orgeron is 8-1 as dog since 2017, also 2-2 SU vs. Gators. Dan Mullen had covered seven straight in Gainesville before non-cover vs. South Carolina. Tech edge: Slight to LSU, based on team trends. 

NORTH TEXAS at MIDDLE TENNESSEE

After Charlotte loss, UNT now on 5-20 spread skid since early 2018. Also no covers last nine as C-USA visitor. Rick Stockstill 6-2 vs. spread last eight as C-USA host. Tech edge: MTSU, based on team trends. 

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at CHARLOTTE

Charlotte favored, but 49ers have been better lately as dogs (5-1 last six). FIU just 3-4 as dog since last year but was 6-1 in previous seven in role for Butch Davis. Golden Panthers have won five straight in series but have covered only last two meetings. Tech edge: Slight to FIU, based on team trends. 

MARSHALL at LOUISIANA TECH

Skip Holtz 20-9 in dog role since arriving at Ruston in 2014 (1-1 this year). Herd has covered first three this season after 4-9 mark vs. points in 2019. Tech edge: Louisiana Tech, based on team trends.

GEORGIA at ALABAMA

Kirby Smart had covered five straight as a dog before losing SEC title game vs. LSU last December. Dawgs 7-2 vs. line last nine vs. SEC foes away from Athens. Nick Saban only 2-3 vs. spread last five vs. SEC at Bryant-Denny. These two haven’t met in regular season since 2015 but have faced off in FCS title and SEC title games in recent years. Tech edge: Georgia, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at UTEP

USM had dropped six in a row SU and vs. line before UNT win. Golden Eagles have won last five in series, covered three in a row from 2016-18. UTEP off to 3-2 SU break from gate (that’s good for Miners!), though just 1-6 vs. spread last seven at Sun Bowl as C-USA host. Tech edge: Slight to USM, based on series trends.

UMASS at GEORGIA SOUTHERN

UMass finally plays its opener. Minutemen 0-5-1 as road dogs last year in midst of overall 2-9-1 spread effort. GSU is 7-2 last nine as Statesboro chalk. Tech edge: GSU, based on team trends.

 

NFL

 

CHICAGO at CAROLINA

Bears have won and covered first two on road in 2020 after dropping last six vs. spread away from Soldier Field in 2019. Matt Rhule has won and covered last three. Chicago on 20-8 Under run since late 2018 (Over first two away, however). Panthers on 7-3-1 Over run since mid-2019. Tech edge: Slight to Panthers and Under, based on team and extended totals trends.

DETROIT at JACKSONVILLE

Lions 1-12 SU last 13, so beware if made chalk. Matt Patricia no covers last four as chalk. Jaguars 3-2 as home dogs since last year. Lions Over 13-7 last 20. Tech edge: Jaguars, especially if dogs, and slight to Over based on team and totals trends. 

ATLANTA at MINNESOTA

Falcons still winless at 0-5 SU in 2020. Five-game road spread cover streak finally stopped by Pack last Monday. Also Over 6-3 last nine away. Vikes Over 11-5 last 16 regular-season games after Seattle on Sunday night. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends. 

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE

Titans were the odd 3-0 SU/0-3 vs. line first three games of 2020 into Bills on Tuesday. Also 12-4 SU in Ryan Tannehill’s first 16 games as starter. Texans closed Bill O’Brien era by dropping last five SU and against line but did win and cover for Romeo Crennel last week against Jaguars. Titans also Over 12-4 in Tannehill’s first 16 starts. Overs 7-2 last nine in series. Tech edge: Over and slight to Titans, based on totals and team trends.

WASHINGTON at NEW YORK GIANTS

Washington on 6-2 Over run since late 2019. Giants have won and covered four of last five in series, though just 1-8 vs. line last nine at MetLife. Tech edge: Slight to Over and Washington, based on recent totals and team trends. 

CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH

Home team has covered last four in series. Browns Over 7-2 since late 2019. Before covers in last three, Cleveland was on 5-12-1 spread skid. Tech edge: Steelers and Over, based on series and recent totals trends. 

BALTIMORE at PHILADELPHIA

Ravens on 16-1 SU run in regular season and 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven as visitors. Eagles on 3-9 spread skid since mid-2019, also 1-6 vs. spread last seven at Linc. Tech edge: Ravens, based on team trends. 

CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS

Bengals have covered three of last four in 2020 after opener vs. Chargers. Cincy 6-4 vs. line last nine as visitor, not counting vs. Rams in London last year. Colts have won and covered three of last four in 2020 and Under three of those, now Under 5-3 since late 2019. Bengals, however, on 6-3 Over run. Tech edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends. 

NEW YORK JETS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Jets 0-5 SU and vs. line in 2020, now 2-8 vs. spread last 10 since late 2019, also 2-7 vs. number last nine away. But Chargers just 2-9 vs. line last 11 as hosts (1-1 at SoFi), also just 2-9 last 11 as chalk. Bolts Under 7-1 last eight as hosts. Tech edge: Slight to Under, based on totals trends. 

GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY

Pack 4-0 SU and vs. line, also Over 5-1 last six since late 2019. If Packers dogs, note 5-2 mark in role since last year, both losses last season vs. 49ers. Bucs Over 3-2 in 2020. Bruce Arians teams now Over 30-14 since mid-2016 with Cards and Bucs. Tech edge: Over and Packers, based on totals and team trends. 

LOS ANGELES RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO

Rams 11-3 vs. number last 14 as visitors, have also won last three and covered last two at Levi’s. Rams also Over four of last five on road. Niners no covers first three as hosts in 2020 and 12-6 Over since early 2019. Tech edge: Rams and Over, based on team and totals trends. 

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND

Bill Belichick 15-6 vs. line as regular-season home chalk since early 2017 (2-0 in 2020). Broncos 7-3 last 10 as dogs for Vic Fangio. Tech edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.

ARIZONA at DALLAS

Cardinals have covered last four as dogs for Kliff Kingsbury (1-0 this year), 11-4-1 in role since 2019. Cowboys no covers first five in 2020, also on 17-7 Over run since late in 2018. Tech edge: Cards and Over, based on team and totals trends.

KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO

After loss to Las Vegas, K.C. now 13-1 SU, 12-2 vs. line last 14 since mid-2019. Bills 6-3-1 last 10 as dogs and Over first four in 2020 into Titans game Tuesday. Tech edge: Slight to Chiefs and Over, based on recent trends.

 

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