Brighton vs. Burnley
(Pk -120) (Under 2.5 -110)
11 a.m. ET Sunday
Burnley hosts Brighton to end their Premier League season. Neither is fighting off relegation or challenging for European spots, so some people might question motivation. Those people don’t know Sean Dyche. He is an intense, hard-nosed, defensive-minded manager who always gets the best out of his Burnley players. They rarely take games off. Burnley has lost one game since February with six wins and six draws. They are in superb form, and I think they will be too much for Brighton, whose players have packed their bags already. Burnley, however, does draw quite often. Because of that, I would bet the Pk up to -140, where you push if they draw.
Over eight games since the restart, Burnley has scored two goals or fewer in seven. The only game that went Over was against Man City, which has been scoring plenty of goals most of the time. But Brighton has scored two goals just once in that time frame. That was against Arsenal and was more a function of Arsenal’s inept defense than of Brighton’s firepower. I love Under 2.5 in this game. Brighton lacks quality in the final third. Burnley actually has some skill in the final third and on set pieces. However, they are so defensive-minded that they typically get clean sheets and win 1-0 or 2-0.
Watford vs. Arsenal (Ars + 105)
11 a.m. ET Sunday
This is solely a play against Watford. They sacked their manager with two games left, which is always an ominous sign. Most people thought Nigel Pearson was actually doing a good job. All they needed to do was to lose to Man City by three or fewer goals to earn the goal-differential advantage over Aston Villa for the last relegation spot. They couldn’t even do that, and of course Villa beat Arsenal. So now Watford trails Villa by a goal. I think Watford is done, and I don’t think they’ll get a point here. Arsenal was flying high with wins over Liverpool and Man City since the restart. I did like Villa over Arsenal on Tuesday, as it was a classic letdown spot. I think they’ll bounce back and beat Watford to end the season on a high note.
Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace (Tottenham -170)
11 a.m. ET Sunday
This is a big game for Tottenham but not Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace beat Bournemouth in their first game back. Since then they have lost seven straight, including six shutouts. Palace has packed their bags, and I don’t see them caring at all about this game. They are safe in the middle of the table. On the other hand, Tottenham trails Wolves by a point for the last Europa League spot. They need a win and will show the urgency of a team that needs all three points. Tottenham has five wins, two draws and one loss in the last eight games. They’ve been playing really well and have won three in a row. Harry Kane is in form, and Jose Mourinho has them locked in down the stretch. I like Tottenham to win here.
Manchester United vs. Leicester City (Man U + 120)
11 a.m. ET Sunday
All Man United needs is a draw to get into the Champions League. But I still think Man U will win. Leicester has looked really poor, just losing to Tottenham 3-0. They are missing both starting fullbacks and their best attacking midfielder. Leicester isn’t a rich club, so the reserves are quite lacking. This is just a different team without Ben Chilwell, Ricardo Pereira and James Maddison. They are mid-table at best right now. Man United has dropped points here and there but has looked like the best team in the EPL over stretches since the restart with five wins, three draws and no losses. Leicester has two wins, two draws and three losses. A draw might be good enough, but I have to take Man U at plus money in this spot. I also lean Over 2.5. Leicester will be aggressive, so I do see goals in this contest.
Atalanta vs. AC Milan (Over 3, 3.5 goals -120)
3:45 p.m. ET Friday
These clubs have a lot of firepower and have the potential to go Over this total on their own. Atalanta already has the most goals in Serie A history. Milan has scored multiple goals in all nine games since the restart, including three or more five times. Atalanta has gone Under more recently. However, I think they have the firepower, and this game really should have four goals in it. This feels like a 2-2 draw, so I would bet Over 3, 3.5 up to -140.
Sassuolo vs. Napoli (Sassuolo + 1 -118)
3:45 p.m. ET Saturday
I like Sassuolo to keep it close. Before their 2-1 defeat to AC Milan, they were unbeaten in their last eight matches. But they went a man down before halftime. If that hadn’t happened, I say they would have gotten a point out of that match. Napoli has been in decent form as well, but their results have me wanting more. They very rarely win by two goals or more and sometimes drop points where they shouldn’t. I would take Sassuolo + 1 up to -130 in this match. I also lean Over 3 (-120) as Serie A has been a goalfest.