Total Handicapping: Base Scoring Totals by Stadium

By Jeff Fogle  (VSiN Contributor) 

Thought it would be fun to calculate the base scoring totals in all 30 Major League Stadiums to this point in the 2018 season. At the very least, you can use these as a tentative starting point for your game-by-game Over/Under handicapping. Adjust off these for the quality of starting pitchers, offenses, and any potential weather impact. It’s always good to have a sense of what the norms are for a park in any given season. Keeps you from making rash bets off knee-jerk reactions. The data you read today is through games of this past Sunday. These are the average per-game sums at each site.

We’ll start in the American League, where Arlington currently leads the way in scoring average.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Texas 10.7

Cleveland 10.6

Boston 9.8

NY Yankees 9.4

Kansas City 9.3

Detroit 9.2

Toronto 9.2

Let’s stop there…those are the teams currently higher than 9.0 per game. Texas has been “the Colorado of the American League” for years because of how well the ball carries with prevailing wind conditions and the impact of intense heat on pitcher fatigue. This year, Rangers home games are 22-14-3 to the Over even with the site’s reputation. Cleveland has been an anomaly all season…and will likely see a regression the rest of the way. Not likely that a 22-11-1 home Over trend will continue at that pace.

No surprise that runs are being scored in Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. But, the market has been on top of that. Both sites were two games over .500 to the Over through the weekend… which is basically dead even after vigorish.

Baltimore 8.6

Chicago White Sox 8.4

LA Angels 8.3

Minnesota 8.3

Seattle 7.9

Oakland 7.8

Tampa Bay 7.6

Houston 7.4

A mix there of struggling offenses and good pitchers’ parks. Once again, Houston jumps out as a great pitching environment overlooked by the mainstream media. You KNOW the Astros have a fantastic offense. They just crushed again on last week’s road rampage. Yet, the “typical” game at Minute Maid is closer to seven runs than it is to eight. The park was 13-19-1 to the Under at the beginning of the home series vs. Tampa Bay Those low numbers are also a reminder of the impact that fixing “the baseball issue” has had on scoring this season. Last year’s balls flew much farther than in the past because of a change in construction. That has apparently been rectified. And we have seven American League stadiums averaging less than 8.5 runs per game midway through June…even though designated hitters bat instead of pitchers in those parks.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Colorado 11.5

Cincinnati 9.6

San Francisco 9.4

Pittsburgh 9.2

San Diego 9.0

Chicago Cubs 8.9

Atlanta 8.7

Milwaukee 8.5

No surprise that Colorado leads the way. Though, it’s been a slight Under park because 11.5 is lower than expected at that site (13-16-1 to the Under through this past weekend). The biggest shockers, as we discussed recently, are San Francisco and San Diego. Those have historically been great pitchers’ parks because of a heavy marine layer, and cooler temperatures in SF. You’d have to expect a regression. Keep an eye on scoring at those two sites to see if there’s been an underpublicized change involving conditions. Entering the new week, games in San Diego had gone 23-15-1 to the Over, in San Francisco 17-11-2 to the Over.

(Wrigley Field is always quirky for the market. If the wind is blowing out in a day game, it might as well be Coors Field in Colorado. If the wind is blowing in on a cool night, games are typically very low scoring. Consider the base 7 for cool night games with the wind in, more like 11 or 12 on day games with the wind out.)

Philadelphia 8.4

Arizona 8.1

St. Louis 8.1

Miami 7.7

LA Dodgers 7.6

Washington 7.6

NY Mets 7.1

Arizona dropped from prior norms because they now store baseballs in a humidor. Though, scoring jumped so much recently that you had to wonder if they stopped doing that! Arizona home games had been 11-19-3 to the Under before a 4-2 mark to the Over on the last homestand. The poor Mets…not much offensive firepower and they have to play home games in a pitchers’ park. Games were 12-22 to the Under at Citi Field as we began the new week.

Past results are no guarantee of future performance. So, we’re not saying those are predictions for the rest of the season at those stadiums. But, they do provide you a base for understanding what’s happened so far, and a sense of what’s “normal” at most of the parks (granting a few weird outliers thus far in 2018). Too many bettors still make the mistake of leaving stadium impact out of their analysis. Or, of including the stadium but then ignoring the talent make-up of the teams. IT ALL MATTERS!

Don’t forget that we’ll be providing weekday coverage of Major League Baseball in our VSiN City newsletter. Doesn’t cost you anything to subscribe. And it’s sent to you via email Monday through Friday. Please visit vsin.com/newsletter.

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.

Headlines

View All

custom-banner-3
VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!

VSiN+ FREE TRIAL

  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store
Close