Top World Series betting systems

By Steve Makinen  (VSiN.com) 

October 26, 2021 07:31 PM
makinenmlb

Now that Major League Baseball has pared its playoffs to two teams, it’s time to dig into the systems and trends you’ll want to consider as we handicap the World Series. The Series, which opened Tuesday night, should be interesting, with an unexpected matchup between teams that entered the postseason as underdogs in their leagues. The Astros are making their third World Series appearance in five seasons and have an obvious playoff experience edge over the Braves, who haven’t played on baseball’s biggest stage since 1999. However, for as good as Houston has been in this and recent postseasons, Atlanta may have caught proverbial lightning in a bottle. Both teams boast deep lineups and strong home-field advantage. Houston is about a -140 favorite.

Over the last 20 or more years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’ll want to bet the games, so why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently? Here are 10 systems to follow.

System 1

Home-field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series. Hosts are on a 9-17 slide in the last 26 opportunities dating back to 2016 (35 percent, -13.6 units, -53 percent ROI, Grade 68).

Analysis: Home-field advantage was a much bigger deal in earlier rounds of the playoffs, so be careful to not overvalue this factor in the World Series, as the best teams in the league know how to win on the road. These numbers don’t include the 2020 Series, which was played in a neutral environment.

 

System 2

Dating back to 2007, World Series home underdogs of + 120 or more have gone just 1-7 (12.5 percent, -5.45 units, -69 percent ROI, Grade 65).

Analysis: Teams become large road favorites in the World Series when they are dominant or start an elite pitcher. In games with the biggest stakes, it hasn’t been fruitful to fade either.

System 3

Strangely, the most profitable home teams in recent World Series have been those in the -110 to -125 range, or very short favorites, as those teams are on a 15-6 run since 2000 (72 percent, + 7.87 units, 38 percent ROI, Grade 62).

Analysis: It seems that home-field advantage has been the deciding factor in games that are expected to be tight. With a Series line of -140, this one could present multiple opportunities, particularly when the Braves are home.

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.

Headlines

View All
  • Lauri_Markanen

    Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Contest Corner, Wednesday play (12/1)

    As we were getting ready for the Tuesday night sports betting action to begin with the NBA, NHL and college basketball, all I could think of is that I...
  • baylor

    Early CFB Conference Championship Sharp Report

    Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 9 NBA games, 6 NHL games and 70 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown...
  • reynolds

    Hero World Challenge best bets

    While the official PGA Tour season is on pause until January, an elite field of 20 players gathers this week for the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas....
  • finocchiaro

    Best bets for Font-Aldo UFC card

    After a week off for Thanksgiving, the UFC heads into its last three productions of 2021 starting with Saturday’s UFC Fight Night from the Apex...
  • USATSI_17242641

    Peterson: Best bet for Nebraska vs. NC State

    The Big Ten/ACC Challenge will be decided on Wednesday and NC State will look to both help its profile, and also that of the ACC, as the Wolfpack...
  • vontobelnfl

    NFL Week 12 lessons learned

    It was an emotional week for me in the NFL, as the Indianapolis Colts’ failed cover cost me a share of the first-place prize in the Westgate SuperContest...
  • vontobelnba

    Three NBA trends to watch

    It was a somewhat quiet week in the NBA with the league taking a night off for Thanksgiving, but there is still plenty to discuss. This week we touch...
  • macneil

    Hockey bettors must beat closing line

    In the end, wins and losses are really all that matters, because every sports bettor’s goal is to make money. However, wins and losses don’t...
  • appelbaum

    Five NFL games wise guys like

    NFL underdogs continued to grind out a profit in Week 12, going 8-7 ATS. Dogs are now 101-77 ATS (57 percent) on the season. A $100 bettor taking every...
  • hill

    NFL capsules for Week 13

    Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints The Dallas Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) visit the New Orleans Saints (5-6 SU and ATS) on Thursday night as both...
  • moore

    Let's re-examine Gonzaga wagers

    Those predictions we heard about this college basketball season being filled with upsets and uncertainty? Well, they seem to be pretty accurate just a...
  • makinennfl

    Simulating rest of NFL season

    (To view the charts associated with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) All NFL teams have either five or six games left in their 2021-22...

custom-banner-3
VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!

VSiN+ FREE TRIAL

  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store
Close