Now that Major League Baseball has pared its playoffs to two teams, it’s time to dig into the systems and trends you’ll want to consider as we handicap the World Series. The Series, which opened Tuesday night, should be interesting, with an unexpected matchup between teams that entered the postseason as underdogs in their leagues. The Astros are making their third World Series appearance in five seasons and have an obvious playoff experience edge over the Braves, who haven’t played on baseball’s biggest stage since 1999. However, for as good as Houston has been in this and recent postseasons, Atlanta may have caught proverbial lightning in a bottle. Both teams boast deep lineups and strong home-field advantage. Houston is about a -140 favorite.
Over the last 20 or more years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’ll want to bet the games, so why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently? Here are 10 systems to follow.
Home-field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series. Hosts are on a 9-17 slide in the last 26 opportunities dating back to 2016 (35 percent, -13.6 units, -53 percent ROI, Grade 68).
Analysis: Home-field advantage was a much bigger deal in earlier rounds of the playoffs, so be careful to not overvalue this factor in the World Series, as the best teams in the league know how to win on the road. These numbers don’t include the 2020 Series, which was played in a neutral environment.
Dating back to 2007, World Series home underdogs of + 120 or more have gone just 1-7 (12.5 percent, -5.45 units, -69 percent ROI, Grade 65).
Analysis: Teams become large road favorites in the World Series when they are dominant or start an elite pitcher. In games with the biggest stakes, it hasn’t been fruitful to fade either.
Strangely, the most profitable home teams in recent World Series have been those in the -110 to -125 range, or very short favorites, as those teams are on a 15-6 run since 2000 (72 percent, + 7.87 units, 38 percent ROI, Grade 62).
Analysis: It seems that home-field advantage has been the deciding factor in games that are expected to be tight. With a Series line of -140, this one could present multiple opportunities, particularly when the Braves are home.