Now that Major League Baseball has pared its playoffs to two teams, it’s time to dig into the systems and trends you’ll want to consider as we handicap the World Series. The Series, which opened Tuesday night, should be interesting, with an unexpected matchup between teams that entered the postseason as underdogs in their leagues. The Astros are making their third World Series appearance in five seasons and have an obvious playoff experience edge over the Braves, who haven’t played on baseball’s biggest stage since 1999. However, for as good as Houston has been in this and recent postseasons, Atlanta may have caught proverbial lightning in a bottle. Both teams boast deep lineups and strong home-field advantage. Houston is about a -140 favorite.
Over the last 20 or more years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’ll want to bet the games, so why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently? Here are 10 systems to follow.
System 1
Home-field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series. Hosts are on a 9-17 slide in the last 26 opportunities dating back to 2016 (35 percent, -13.6 units, -53 percent ROI, Grade 68).
Analysis: Home-field advantage was a much bigger deal in earlier rounds of the playoffs, so be careful to not overvalue this factor in the World Series, as the best teams in the league know how to win on the road. These numbers don’t include the 2020 Series, which was played in a neutral environment.
System 2
Dating back to 2007, World Series home underdogs of + 120 or more have gone just 1-7 (12.5 percent, -5.45 units, -69 percent ROI, Grade 65).
Analysis: Teams become large road favorites in the World Series when they are dominant or start an elite pitcher. In games with the biggest stakes, it hasn’t been fruitful to fade either.
System 3
Strangely, the most profitable home teams in recent World Series have been those in the -110 to -125 range, or very short favorites, as those teams are on a 15-6 run since 2000 (72 percent, + 7.87 units, 38 percent ROI, Grade 62).
Analysis: It seems that home-field advantage has been the deciding factor in games that are expected to be tight. With a Series line of -140, this one could present multiple opportunities, particularly when the Braves are home.
System 4
Overall, on totals, there has been a 53 percent lean to the Over in World Series games over the last 12 years. But in games with totals of 8 or higher, the Under holds an edge of 12-9 (58 percent, + 1.4 units, 7 percent ROI, Grade 40).
Analysis: Typically, pitching takes center stage in the World Series, especially deep in games. Both teams have solid bullpens to bolster above-average rotations. For as well as these teams hit, both on paper and in playoff action so far, similarly higher-totaled World Series games have leaned Under of late.
System 5
World Series teams have struggled putting together back-to-back wins recently, going 3-12 in the game after up a win (20 percent, -12.6 units, -84 percent ROI, Grade 70).
Analysis: The Series has featured a lot of back-and-forth recently, and teams that can string together wins wind up having a huge advantage.
System 6
World Series Game 1 home teams are on an 8-2 run (80 percent, + 5.65 units, 56.5 percent ROI, Grade 59).
Analysis: For Game 1, the advantage has gone definitively to the hosts recently. Naturally, based on the previous system, the Game 2 play is usually the road team.
System 7
World Series Game 4s have been the most clearly dominated by the road teams, who have gone 12-4 since 2004 (75 percent, + 8.9 units, 56 percent ROI, Grade 65).
Analysis: Game 4 is usually a definitive contest. The better team, or the one with home-field advantage in the Series, is playing on the road, and the lesser host often has its fourth starter going.
System 8
World Series home teams that scored seven or more runs in the previous game have surged to a 13-6 run since 2001 (69 percent, + 5.15 units, 28 percent ROI, Grade 52).
Analysis: Offensive momentum has proven to be a huge factor for home teams’ continuing success in the World Series.
System 9
Incredibly, since the start of the 2014 Series, teams that scored two or fewer runs in the previous game are on a 16-5 surge since 2010 (81.3 percent, + 13.4 units, 64 percent ROI, Grade 68).
Analysis: The teams that didn’t score much in the previous outing would tend to be the least attractive wagering targets in the betting public’s eyes, but they have proven to be quality teams highly capable of bouncing back. In fact, they have averaged 5.3 runs per game in the follow-up game.
System 10
Washington’s improbable Game 7 win in the 2019 World Series snapped a streak of nine straight road underdogs losing after hitting three or more home runs in the previous game (10 percent, -7.7 units, 77 percent ROI, Grade 62).
Analysis: This is a strange one when you consider that power surges can be big momentum builders in other postseason or regular-season stretches. Perhaps the Nationals’ big win will also mark a key turning point for this system.