This week presents the first opportunity to wager on NFL teams coming out of their bye weeks. Four teams were off last week — Atlanta, New Orleans, the New York Jets and San Francisco. You’ll want to look at the team trends for those four in time for this weekend’s games and then hang on to this report for future reference.
I have for years reasoned that the bye week is one of the most impactful variables on a team’s schedule. Essentially, the bye breaks up the routine, and professional athletes’ performances can vary greatly when that happens. These variances naturally offer great wagering opportunities. Where the bye is placed and how the teams react in and out of that week off can often make the difference of one or two wins. And that can affect whether a team makes the playoffs.
Clearly, the three-week period involving a bye week — going in, the week off and coming out — is huge. In fact, I believe it will be even bigger this season, with byes generally pushed later in the season and an extra game added to the schedule. So let’s get to the data, first a group of leaguewide systems and then team-by-team post-bye trends, along with their scheduled post-bye games.
Post-bye System 1
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye weeks.
Record: 97-37 SU and 83-49-2 ATS since 1999, 63 percent, + 29.1 units, 22 percent ROI, Grade 65
2021 plays: Potentially on Atlanta (Oct. 24), New Orleans (Oct. 25), Dallas (Oct. 31), Las Vegas (Nov. 7), Tampa Bay (Nov. 14) and Arizona (Dec. 5)
Post-bye road-favorite subsystems:
— Vs. nonconference opponents. (Record: 29-11-1 ATS since 2000, 73 percent, + 16.9 units, 43 percent ROI, Grade 70). Potentially on Atlanta (Oct. 24) and Las Vegas (Nov. 7)
— Vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 31-15 ATS since ’02, 68 percent, + 14.5 units, 32 percent ROI, Grade 68). No plays for 2021
Post-bye System 2
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye weeks.
(Record: 31-9 SU and 26-13-1 ATS since ’99, 66.7 percent, + 11.7 units, 30 percent ROI, Grade 65)
2021 plays: Potentially on Minnesota (Oct. 31), Washington (Nov. 24), Chicago (Nov. 21) and Denver (Nov. 28)