Top post-bye trends in NFL

makinennfl
This week presents the first opportunity to wager on NFL teams coming out of their bye weeks. Four teams were off last week — Atlanta, New Orleans, the New York Jets and San Francisco. You’ll want to look at the team trends for those four in time for this weekend’s games and then hang on to this report for future reference.
 
I have for years reasoned that the bye week is one of the most impactful variables on a team’s schedule. Essentially, the bye breaks up the routine, and professional athletes’ performances can vary greatly when that happens. These variances naturally offer great wagering opportunities. Where the bye is placed and how the teams react in and out of that week off can often make the difference of one or two wins. And that can affect whether a team makes the playoffs. 
 
Clearly, the three-week period involving a bye week — going in, the week off and coming out — is huge. In fact, I believe it will be even bigger this season, with byes generally pushed later in the season and an extra game added to the schedule. So let’s get to the data, first a group of leaguewide systems and then team-by-team post-bye trends, along with their scheduled post-bye games.
 
Post-bye System 1
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye weeks. 
Record: 97-37 SU and 83-49-2 ATS since 1999, 63 percent, + 29.1 units, 22 percent ROI, Grade 65
2021 plays: Potentially on Atlanta (Oct. 24), New Orleans (Oct. 25), Dallas (Oct. 31), Las Vegas (Nov. 7), Tampa Bay (Nov. 14) and Arizona (Dec. 5)
 
Post-bye road-favorite subsystems:
— Vs. nonconference opponents. (Record: 29-11-1 ATS since 2000, 73 percent, + 16.9 units, 43 percent ROI, Grade 70). Potentially on Atlanta (Oct. 24) and Las Vegas (Nov. 7)
— Vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 31-15 ATS since ’02, 68 percent, + 14.5 units, 32 percent ROI, Grade 68). No plays for 2021
 
Post-bye System 2
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye weeks.
(Record: 31-9 SU and 26-13-1 ATS since ’99, 66.7 percent, + 11.7 units, 30 percent ROI, Grade 65)
2021 plays: Potentially on Minnesota (Oct. 31), Washington (Nov. 24), Chicago (Nov. 21) and Denver (Nov. 28)
 
 
Post-bye System 3
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye weeks. 
(Record: 23-12-1 since ’10, 65.7 percent, + 9.8 units, 27.2 percent ROI, Grade 56)
2021 plays: Potentially on Jacksonville-Seattle (Oct. 31), Detroit-Pittsburgh (Nov. 14), Indianapolis-New England (Dec. 19) and Miami-New York Jets (Dec. 19)
 
Post-bye System 4
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye weeks.
(Record: 13-3 ATS since ’14, 81.3 percent, + 9.7 units, 61 percent ROI, Grade 70)
2021 plays: Potentially on Buffalo (Oct. 31), Tampa Bay (Nov. 14), Kansas City (Dec. 5), Tennessee (Dec. 12) and Green Bay (Dec. 12)
 
Post-bye System 5
Play on teams coming off their bye weeks and facing the Chargers.
(Record: 10-2 SU and 12-0 ATS since ’08, 100 percent, + 12 units, 100 percent ROI, Grade 75)
2021 play: Denver (Nov. 28)
 
The previous systems and the following trends include only bye-week games from the regular-season schedule, not the playoffs. 
 
ARIZONA (post-bye game Dec. 5 at Chicago)
Arizona has lost its last three post-bye games and is 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS in them since ’06.
The Cardinals are 4-1 Under the total in their last five post-bye games.
 
ATLANTA (post-bye game Oct. 24 at Miami)
Atlanta is on a 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS run in its last 17 post-bye games.
The Falcons are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven post-bye road games but did lose at New Orleans last year.
 
BALTIMORE (post-bye game Nov. 7 vs. Minnesota)
Baltimore is 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS in post-bye games dating to ’02.
The Ravens are 5-0 SU and ATS in their previous five post-bye games against NFC foes.
 
BUFFALO (post-bye game Oct. 31 vs. Miami)
Buffalo is on a 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS run in post-bye games and is 18-9-2 ATS dating to ’93.
The Bills have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five post-bye games against divisional rivals.
 
CAROLINA (post-bye game Dec. 12 vs. Atlanta)
Carolina has gone just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home post-bye games.
The Panthers’ last seven post-bye games went Over the total.
 
CHICAGO (post-bye game Nov. 21 vs. Baltimore)
Chicago has lost its last seven post-bye games SU and ATS, outscored by 15.3 points per game.
The Bears have allowed 35 ppg during their seven-game post-bye skid, going Over the total six times.
 
CINCINNATI (post-bye game Nov. 21 at Las Vegas)
The Bengals have lost five straight post-bye games, both SU and ATS.
Cincinnati has gone Over the total in its last four post-bye games, allowing 41.3 ppg.
 
CLEVELAND (post-bye game Dec. 12 vs. Baltimore)
Cleveland is 3-7 SU and 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 post-bye games.
The Browns are just 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six post-bye games against divisional foes.
 
DALLAS (post-bye game Oct. 31 at Minnesota)
Dallas is on an 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS run in post-bye games.
The Cowboys are 14-2 Over the total in post-bye games since ’05, including Overs in the last nine.
 
DENVER (post-bye game Nov. 28 vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
Denver has gone 16-6 SU and 17-5 ATS in post-bye games since ’00.
The Broncos are on a 5-1 SU and ATS surge in post-bye divisional games.
 
DETROIT (post-bye game Nov. 14 at Pittsburgh)
Incredibly, Detroit is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in post-bye games since 2012.
The Lions have gone Under the total in seven of their last eight post-bye games, allowing just 18.8 ppg.
 
GREEN BAY (post-bye game Dec. 12 vs. Chicago)
Green Bay is just 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six post-bye games after going 8-0-1 ATS in its first nine games of the Mike McCarthy era.
The Packers are 11-3 Under the total in their last 14 post-bye games. In the last six, they have scored just 15.8 ppg.
 
HOUSTON (post-bye game Nov. 21 at Tennessee)
Houston has lost three straight post-bye games ATS.
The Texans are 0-3 SU and ATS in post-bye games against Tennessee.
 
INDIANAPOLIS (post-bye game Dec. 19 vs. New England)
Indianapolis has gone 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 post-bye games.
The Colts are on an extended 16-5-1 Over-the-total run in post-bye games, including three straight.
 
JACKSONVILLE (post-bye game Oct. 31 at Seattle)
Jacksonville is on an 8-3 Over-the-total run as a post-bye underdog.
The Jaguars are 2-1 SU and ATS in their previous three post-bye games against NFC foes.
 
KANSAS CITY (post-bye game Dec. 5 vs. Denver)
Coach Andy Reid’s teams are 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS in post-bye games.
The Chiefs have played just four post-bye home games since ’07, going 1-3 SU and ATS.
 
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (post-bye game Oct. 31 vs. New England)
The Chargers are on a 4-1 ATS surge in their last five post-bye games.
The Chargers are 9-4 Under the total in their last 13 post-bye home games but did go Over last year.
 
LOS ANGELES RAMS (post-bye game Nov. 28 at Green Bay)
The Rams are on a 10-3-1 ATS run in their last 14 post-bye games but have gone just 7-7 SU.
The Rams are on a 5-1 Under-the-total run in their last six post-bye games, allowing just 14.2 ppg.
 
LAS VEGAS (post-bye game Nov. 7 at New York Giants)
The Raiders are on an 0-4 SU and ATS skid in post-bye games, with an average loss of 20.5 ppg.
The Raiders are 8-2 Over the total in post-bye games since ’11.
 
MIAMI (post-bye game Dec. 19 vs. New York Jets)
Miami is on a 5-0-1 ATS surge in post-bye games.
The Dolphins have gone Under the total in their last four post-bye games.
 
MINNESOTA (post-bye game Oct. 31 vs. Dallas)
For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye at 3-8 SU and ATS in their last 11.
The Vikings have gone Over the total in their last four post-bye games.
 
NEW ENGLAND (post-bye game Dec. 19 at Indianapolis)
The Patriots are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in post-bye road games.
New England is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven post-bye games against non-divisional AFC foes.
 
NEW ORLEANS (post-bye game Oct. 25 at Seattle)
New Orleans has lost back-to-back post-bye games ATS after a noteworthy 9-1 ATS surge in such contests.
The Saints are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 post-bye road games dating to the Jim Mora days of ’94.
 
NEW YORK GIANTS (post-bye game Nov. 22 at Tampa Bay)
Dating to ’95, the Giants are just 8-17-1 ATS in post-bye games.
In post-bye road games, the Giants are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10.
 
NEW YORK JETS (post-bye game Oct. 24 at New England)
Like many other situations of late, the Jets have struggled in post-bye games, going 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS in their last 12.
The Jets have lost four straight (1-3 ATS) divisional post-bye games, getting outscored by 19.3 ppg.
 
PHILADELPHIA (post-bye game Dec. 19 vs. Washington)
Philadelphia is 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine post-bye games, including three straight losses.
The Eagles are on a 9-2 Under-the-total run in post-bye divisional games.
 
PITTSBURGH (post-bye game Oct. 31 at Cleveland)
The Steelers are 7-3 SU but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 post-bye games.
Pittsburgh is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 post-bye games against divisional opponents.
 
SAN FRANCISCO (post-bye game Oct. 24 vs. Indianapolis)
San Francisco has won back-to-back post-bye games after a brutal 2-12-1 ATS skid in such games.
The 49ers are 4-1 Under the total in their last five post-bye home games with a total point production of 35.4 ppg.
 
SEATTLE (post-bye game Nov. 14 at Green Bay)
Seattle is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five post-bye road games but did lose last year at Arizona.
The Seahawks are on a 5-1 Under-the-total post-bye run versus non-divisional NFC foes, allowing 12.7 ppg.
 
TAMPA BAY (post-bye game Nov. 14 at Washington)
Tampa Bay is on a remarkable Under-Over-Over pattern run for the last 19 years of post-bye games, meaning it’s due for Over in 2021.
The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four post-bye games against non-divisional NFC foes.
 
TENNESSEE (post-bye game Dec. 12 vs. Jacksonville)
The Titans have won five straight post-bye games while going 4-0-1 ATS.
Tennessee is 9-4 SU and 8-3-2 ATS in its last 13 post-bye home games.
 
WASHINGTON (post-bye game Nov. 14 vs. Tampa Bay)
Washington is just 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS in its last 13 post-bye games.
Washington is on a 4-0-1 Over-the-total surge in its last five post-bye games.
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