With the NBA season having opened Tuesday night, the biggest story regarding the schedule is a return to normalcy. Teams will now play schedules they had become accustomed to before the league shut down in March 2020. This means starting and ending the season at the usual dates, typical days off and, if all goes well, full arenas.
While watching the action in the Orlando bubble was interesting and the NBA Finals in July offered a new twist, surely bettors will be more comfortable with the familiar template. And among the key handicapping factors for anyone who takes on the grind of daily NBA betting are the scheduling scenarios and the amount of rest or travel teams have had.
I have always believed that in sports featuring multiple games a week in an inconsistent format, the layout of a team’s schedule can have a huge impact on performance. Some teams simply fare better in certain scheduling spots than others, and there are many debatable reasons for it.
I’ve checked my NBA database over the last three seasons for spots that are relevant to the 2021-22 schedule and highlighted some of the top angles you should note this season.
These are 10 top play-on and play-against scheduling situations that have produced noteworthy results for bettors over the last few seasons. I have also listed all the spots in which they will apply this season. If you notice a continued pattern of winning, by all means keep playing it. If you see the pattern starting to turn, perhaps eliminate that from the list.
All these scheduling situations have produced an ATS or Over/Under winning percentage of 61 percent or higher. As you analyze these records, take into account the average closing lines and totals as well as the average scores to see if you find they make foundational sense.
Here is a brief explanation of the scheduling situations I have analyzed. If you use my NBA Strength Ratings throughout the season, you’ll recognize the game-to-game scenarios are the same terms I use for each daily game’s projections:
OneDay: Team playing with the standard full day of NBA rest (for example, Sunday to Tuesday).
TwoDays: Team playing with two full days of rest between games (Sunday to Wednesday).
3+ Days: Team playing with three full days of rest or more (Sunday to Thursday or longer).
3rdGamein4Days: Team playing its third game in a four-day span.
3rdHomein4Days: Team playing its third home game in a four-day span.
3rdRoadin4Days: Team playing its third road game in a four-day span.
3rdStraightHome: Team playing at least its third straight game at home.
3rdStraightRoad: Team playing at least its third straight game on the road.
3rdGamein9+ Days: Team playing its third game in a span of nine days or more.
4thGamein6Days: Team playing its fourth game in a six-day span.
4thHomein6Days: Team playing its fourth home game in a six-day span.
4thRoadin6Days: Team playing its fourth road game in a six-day span.
4thStraightHome: Team playing at least its fourth straight game at home.
4thStraightRoad: Team playing at least its fourth straight game on the road.
A2A b2b: Team playing its second road game on back-to-back days.
A2H b2b: Team playing at home after a road game the previous day.
H2A b2b: Team playing on the road after a home game the previous day.
H2H b2b: Team playing at home for a second straight day.
TOP PLAY-ON SCHEDULING SPOTS
Philadelphia is 10-0 Over the total in A2H b2b scenario
Average final total: 218
Average score: Philadelphia 119.8, Opponent 114.2
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Dec. 9: vs. Utah
March 14: vs. Denver
Atlanta is 8-1 Over the total in 3rdRoadin4Days scenario
Average final total: 226.6
Average score: Atlanta 115.8, Opponent 124.1
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Oct. 30: at Philadelphia
Nov. 9: at Utah
Washington is 13-2 Over the total in A2A b2b scenario
Average final total: 231.8
Average score: Washington 118.3, Opponent 124.5
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Nov. 18: at Miami
Nov. 27: at Dallas
Dec. 6: at Indiana
Dec. 16: at Phoenix
Feb. 2: at Philadelphia
March 12: at Portland
March 25: at Detroit
April 6: at Atlanta
Detroit is 12-2 ATS in 4thStraightRoad scenario
Average final line: + 8.1
Average score: Detroit 107.1, Opponent 110.3
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Nov. 30: at Portland
Dec. 2: at Phoenix
Jan. 23: at Denver
Sacramento is 12-3 ATS in 3rdRoadin4Days scenario
Average final line: + 4.3
Average score: Sacramento 111.1, Opponent 108.3
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Dec. 13: at Toronto
March 3: at San Antonio
March 5: at Dallas
Dallas is 18-5 ATS in 3rdStraightRoad scenario
Average final line: -0.5
Average score: Dallas 113.4, Opponent 104.9
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Nov. 21: at L.A. Clippers
Nov. 23: at L.A. Clippers
Dec. 12: at Oklahoma City
Dec. 29: at Sacramento
Dec. 31: at Sacramento
Jan. 2: at Oklahoma City
Feb. 25: at Utah
Feb. 27: at Golden State
March 1: at L.A. Lakers
March 16: at Brooklyn
March 18: at Philadelphia
March 19: at Charlotte
April 3: at Milwaukee
April 6: at Detroit
Phoenix is 13-5 ATS in A2A b2b scenario
Average final line: + 2.8
Average score: Phoenix 113.7, Opponent 114
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Oct. 23: at Portland
Nov. 15: at Minnesota
Nov. 27: at Brooklyn
Dec. 14: at Portland
Jan. 12: at Detroit
Feb. 8: at Philadelphia
March 9: at Miami
March 16: at Houston
March 24: at Denver
Oklahoma City is 18-8 ATS in 3rdStraightRoad scenario
Average final line: + 4.7
Average score: Oklahoma City 108.7, Opponent 109.4
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Nov. 4: at L.A. Lakers
Nov. 22: at Atlanta
Dec. 8: at Toronto
Jan. 21: at Charlotte
Jan. 22: at Cleveland
Feb. 5: at Sacramento
Feb. 14: at New York
March 20: at Orlando
April 10: at L.A. Clippers
Cleveland is 20-10 ATS in TwoDays scenario
Average final line: + 5.8
Average score: Cleveland 109.2, Opponent 109.3
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Nov. 10: vs. Washington
Nov. 27: vs. Orlando
Dec. 18: at Milwaukee
Dec. 22: at Boston
Jan. 7: at Portland
Jan. 22: vs. Oklahoma City
Feb. 9: vs. San Antonio
Feb. 15: at Atlanta
March 11: at Miami
March 24: at Toronto
April 2: at New York
April 8: at Brooklyn
Portland is 38-24 ATS in 3rdin4Days scenario
Average final line: -1.2
Average score: Portland 116.9, Opponent 113.4
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Nov. 1: at Philadelphia
Nov. 3: at Cleveland
Nov. 6: vs. L.A. Lakers
Nov. 12: at Houston
Nov. 15: vs. Toronto
Nov. 17: vs. Chicago
Nov. 26: at Golden State
Dec. 2: vs. San Antonio
Dec. 15: vs. Memphis
Dec. 17: vs. Charlotte
Jan. 26: vs. Dallas
Jan. 28: at Houston
Jan. 31: at Oklahoma City
Feb. 2: at L.A. Lakers
Feb. 5: vs. Milwaukee
March 21: at Detroit
March 23: vs. San Antonio
March 26: vs. Houston
March 28: vs. Oklahoma City
April 8: at Dallas
April 10: vs. Utah
TOP PLAY-AGAINST SCHEDULING SPOTS
Cleveland is 43-85 ATS in OneDay scenario
Average final line: + 6.7
Average score: Cleveland 104.1, Opponent 114.2
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Oct. 22: vs. Charlotte
Oct. 25: at Denver
Oct. 27: at L.A. Clippers
Oct. 29: at L.A. Lakers
Nov. 1: at Charlotte
Nov. 3: vs. Portland
Nov. 5: at Toronto
Nov. 7: at New York
Nov. 12: vs. Detroit
Nov. 15: vs. Boston
Nov. 17: at Brooklyn
Nov. 24: vs. Phoenix
Nov. 29: at Dallas
Dec. 1: at Miami
Dec. 3: at Washington
Dec. 5: vs. Utah
Dec. 8: vs. Chicago
Dec. 10: at Minnesota
Dec. 13: vs. Miami
Dec. 15: vs. Houston
Dec. 28: at New Orleans
Dec. 30: at Washington
Jan. 2: vs. Indiana
Jan. 4: vs. Memphis
Jan. 9: at Golden State
Jan. 12: at Utah
Jan. 14: at San Antonio
Jan. 17: vs. Brooklyn
Jan. 19: at Chicago
Jan. 24: vs. New York
Jan. 26: vs. Milwaukee
Feb. 2: at Houston
Feb. 4: at Charlotte
Feb. 6: vs. Indiana
Feb. 11: at Indiana
Feb. 26: vs. Washington
Feb. 28: vs. Minnesota
March 2: vs. Charlotte
March 4: at Philadelphia
March 6: vs. Toronto
March 8: at Indiana
March 14: vs. L.A. Clippers
March 16: vs. Philadelphia
March 18: vs. Denver
March 21: vs. L.A. Lakers
March 26: vs. Chicago
March 28: vs. Orlando
March 30: vs. Dallas
April 5: at Orlando
April 10: vs. Milwaukee
Los Angeles Lakers are 6-15 ATS in 4thStraightRoad scenario
Average final line: -0.6
Average score: L.A. Lakers 107.8, Opponent 110.5
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Nov. 23: at New York
Nov. 24: at Indiana
Jan. 27: at Philadelphia
Jan. 28: at Charlotte
Jan. 30: at Atlanta
March 21: at Cleveland
Toronto is 11-3 Under the total in 4thin12+ Days scenario
Average final total: 221.8
Average score: Toronto 110.1, Opponent 104
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Feb. 25: at Charlotte
Feb. 26: at Atlanta
March 1: vs. Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 2-10 ATS in H2A b2b scenario
Average final line: -1.3
Average score: Philadelphia 108, Opponent 113.8
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Nov. 4: at Detroit
Dec. 16: at Brooklyn
Dec. 20: at Boston
Jan. 15: at Miami
March 5: at Miami
April 3: at Cleveland
Phoenix is 1-6 ATS in H2A b2b scenario
Average final line: + 10.3
Average score: Phoenix 98.9, Opponent 116.4
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Nov. 22: at San Antonio
Dec. 3: at Golden State
April 6: at L.A. Clippers
Houston is 7-1 Under the total in 4thStraightRoad scenario
Average final total: 226.6
Average score: Houston 107, Opponent 107.9
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Nov. 6: at Denver
Nov. 7: at Golden State
Nov. 22: at Boston
Dec. 23: at Indiana
Dec. 27: at Charlotte
Jan. 19: at Utah
Jan. 21: at Golden State
San Antonio is 1-8 ATS in 4thHomein6Days scenario
Average final line: -4.9
Average score: San Antonio 113.1, Opponent 121.3
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Dec. 12: vs. New Orleans
Jan. 17: vs. Phoenix
Jan. 19: vs. Oklahoma City
March 12: vs. Indiana
March 14: vs. Minnesota
March 16: vs. Oklahoma City
Washington is 1-10 ATS in 3rdin9+ Days scenario
Average final line: + 0.8
Average score: Washington 106.5, Opponent 117.5
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Feb. 25: vs. San Antonio
Feb. 26: at Cleveland
Boston is 6-0 Under the total in 4thRoadin6Days scenario
Average final fotal: 215.2
Average score: Boston 103.2, Opponent 100.8
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Dec. 8: at L.A. Clippers
March 21: at Oklahoma City
Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in H2A b2b scenario
Average final line: + 2.4
Average score: Atlanta 107.2, Opponent 122.2
Qualifying plays for 2021-22:
Dec. 6: at Minnesota
Dec. 23: at Philadelphia
Feb. 4: at Toronto
Feb. 16: at Orlando