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Today's tip: How to get clean read on QBs

Jeff Fogle  
VSiN City newsletter

September 2, 2018 10:31 AM

It’s already clear that we’ll be devoting a lot of college football coverage this season to getting a clean read on quarterbacks. Stats are easily polluted in this sport because of strength of schedule issues, home/road splits, and the varying tendencies of head coaches to run up the score when given the opportunity.

Some quarterbacks look GREAT against soft, home-heavy schedules, performing for head coaches that don’t call off the dogs until the scoreboard shows 50 or more points. Put those same quarterbacks on the road vs. quality and their weaknesses become much more visible.

On the other hand, some quarterbacks seem generic when performing for conservative head coaches who have a conscience. But stick them in a tough game, and they have the skill sets to move the ball and spring upsets as underdogs.

Sunday night’s Miami/LSU game presents handicappers and bettors with another quarterback who might be getting too much media respect. Miami’s Malik Rosier is a senior who “led” the Hurricanes to a 10-0 start last season. A late fade kept them out of Final Four discussions. Miami enters this season #8 in the AP poll despite only ranking #60 in total offense last season, and #38 in total defense.

Stats from Malik’s final six starts, including the ACC Championship game and the Orange Bowl…

Not So Rosy for Rosier
*210 passing yards or less in every start
*A poor TD/INT ratio of 9/10
*Just below 50% completions at 81/163

Off that finish, Miami’s going to start the season as a perceived national elite, laying -3.5 points on a neutral field to LSU? The Tigers are comparable to the composite skill sets of those last six Miami opponents.

Maybe the market is very anti-LSU rather than pro Miami, and BOTH of these teams are destined to perform well below poll expectations. The Tigers have their own quarterback issues. LSU announced this week that untested graduate transfer Joe Burrow (Ohio State) will get the start Sunday night.

A low scoring game by college standards is expected, as the Over/Under has hung around 47 since opening. With a total that low, sharps aren’t expecting either quarterback to have a big game.

Good luck if you bet it. At the very least, use the exclusive national TV window to scout out investment potential for tests down the road. Miami has it easy until hosting Florida State in early October. LSU has to visit Auburn in two weeks, then host both Alabama and Georgia in the second half of the season.

And, try to spend some time this week reviewing passing stats from Saturday’s biggest games. Learn NOW which signal callers are capable of succeeding against their toughest challenges.

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