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Tip of the day: Betting markets still figuring out Luck

By Jeff Fogle  (VSiN City newsletter) 

August 19, 2018 11:22 PM

Andrew Luck’s return to the Indianapolis Colts has provided a conundrum for betting markets. He’s clearly expected to bring the blue horseshoe back to immediate respectability. Yet, the Colts are still registering as a distant longshot to win the AFC Championship or Super Bowl.

William Hill currently has the Colts’ “Regular Season Win” total at 6.5, with a high money line of -165 if you want to bet the Over. That money line means the Colts are 62% to clear 6.5 wins. So, pencil in seven as a best expectation. This is the NFL. Anything near .500 puts you in the Wildcard hunt! (Note: if you’re skeptical about the 2018 Colts, you can bet Under 6.5 wins and get a nice, juicy return of 145). 

But, Indy isn’t priced like a playoff threat in futures prices.

Colts Futures

35/1 to win AFC (fifth worst of 16)

100/1 to win Super Bowl (only 4 worse of 32)

Indianapolis might as well be the Cleveland Browns (win total of 5.5 with Over priced at -150) or New York Jets (win total of 5.5 with Over priced at -145) in terms of the postseason. 

Why? Brutal division!

AFC South Regular Season Win Totals

Jacksonville: 9 (Over -135)

Houston: 8.5 (Over -150)

Tennessee: 8 (Over -120)

Indianapolis: 6.5 (Over -165)

Jaguars are 57% to clear nine wins. Texans are 60% to clear 8.5 wins. Titans are 54.5% to clear eight wins. Plenty of room for the Colts to regain respectability but not really matter come January. 

As you watch Monday Night’s Baltimore/Indianapolis game on ESPN, consider opportunities for betting value on the board. Playing in a brutal division might make 6.5 victories a tough hurdle to clear. Should Indy “Under 6.5” be such a big underdog? On the other hand, having the quality to make the playoffs out of a brutal division means 100/1 is way too long to win the Super Bowl. 

Andrew Luck’s true impact is still a big question mark. Betting markets are at their most vulnerable when trying to price question marks. 

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