Tip of Day: Mets-Phillies ESPN game provides food for thought -- and betting

By Jeff Fogle  (VSiN City newsletter) 

August 18, 2018 10:26 PM

Odd to see the New York Mets featured in a national Sunday Night telecast on ESPN. But the Mets-Phillies series finale gives us a chance to add context to discussions we’ve had earlier about both teams. 

Awhile back, we alerted you to the astonishing road success of the New York Mets' offense. Took a total of 40 runs in 18 innings in Baltimore and Philadelphia in consecutive games to get anyone else talking about it! As bad as 2018 has been for the franchise in general, the Mets have established they can score runs on the road. Barring surprises, the Mets will carry a better per-game road scoring average into September than the Yankees…even though the Yankees use a designated hitter in most of their road games. 

Philadelphia has been the opposite story. As we discussed this past Tuesday, the Phils have a poor road offense (near the bottom of the NL in runs-per-game and slugging percentage). Despite the fact that Philadelphia has been a surprise contender to win the NL East all season…and the Mets have been a distant also-ran for several weeks…the Mets currently have a better road record than the Phils. 

Here’s what’s separated the two…

*Philadelphia plays home games in a great home run park…and seem particularly adept at taking more advantage of that than opponents. 

*New York plays home games in a great pitchers’ park…and its offense seems particularly ill-suited to get anything going in poor hitting conditions. 

Through the season, Citizen’s Bank Park has increased home runs in the neighborhood of 30%. Citi Field has reduced home runs by around 20%.

We’re not saying the Mets would be instant contenders if the teams somehow flipped ballparks. But, it is interesting that the Phillies haven’t impressed in the head-to-head series vs. the Mets this season, while sporting the inferior record in “all other” ballparks.

2018 Excluding These Parks

NY Mets: 26-29

Philadelphia: 25-30

Food for thought as handicappers consider value betting options Sunday night in Philadelphia and through the final six weeks of the regular season. 

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