Thursday Sharp Action Report for Utah State-Nevada, Packers-49ers and Wyoming-Colorado State

November 4, 2020 11:12 PM

For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the smart money is flowing for each gridiron matchup tonight.

7 p.m. ET: Utah State (0-2) at Nevada (2-0)

This early Thursday night game features two teams trending in completely opposite directions. Utah State is winless as has been outscored by an average margin of 10-40 through two games. On the flip side, Nevada is undefeated and is beating their opponents by an average score of 37-27. This line opened with Nevada listed as a 15.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes seem to be in agreement and are both laying the points with the favorite, pushing the line up from Nevada -15.5 to -17.

8:20 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (5-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4)

This Thursday Night Football matchup features a pair of playoff hopefuls looking to avenge Week 8 losses. After a 4-0 start to the season, the Packers (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) have two of their last three games, most recently falling to the Vikings 28-22, losing straight up as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) saw their two game win streak come to an end last week, losing to the Seahawks 37-27 as 1-point road underdogs. The Packers are + 32 in point differential this season. The 49ers are + 35.

This line originally opened with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. But we've seen this line rise all the way to Packers -7 thanks to a plethora of injuries and a COVID-19 outbreak on the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo will miss this game with an injury and Nick Mullens will start in his place. George Kittle will also miss this game due to injury. The 49ers will also be without wide receivers Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers had to shut down their facility yesterday due to COVID concerns.

San Francisco has value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Historically, home teams have done well covering the number on a short week on Thursday Night. Primetime dogs are 17-8 ATS (68%) this season. The Packers could be short on running backs as Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon will miss this game due to COVID-19. We've also seen some respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 48.5. Bill Vinovich is the lead referee. Historically, he has favored road teams (57% ATS) and unders (59%).

9 p.m. ET: Wyoming (1-1) at Colorado State (0-1)

After dropping their season opener to Nevada 37-34, Wyoming rebounded with a resounding 31-7 home win over Hawaii. Meanwhile, Colorado State has only played one game thus far and looked listless in a 38-17 loss to Fresno State. This line opened with Wyoming listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is relatively split, but pros seem to be leaning with the Cowboys, pushing this line up to -3.5. We've also seen some respected money hit the over, driving the total up from 50.5 to 52.5.

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