Happy Thanksgiving! On behalf of the team at VSiN, I'd like to wish you and yours a happy, safe and prosperous holiday. May your sweats be minimal and your tickets all cash. Unfortunately, there will not be a Market Insights podcast today. In the meantime, let's discuss where the smart money is flowing for today's two Thanksgiving day games.
12:30 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Houston Texans
This early Turkey Day showdown features two non-conference opponents coming off polar opposite Week 11 performances. The Texans (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS) just pulled off a big 27-20 upset win over the Patriots, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Lions (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a listless effort against the Panthers, losing 20-0 as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Texans off a big win and fade the struggling Lions. This lopsided support has pushed the line up to the key number of 3. The next move will be critical. If you see this line jump to -3.5, that will signal continued support for the Texans. However, if this line edges down toward 2.5, that will likely mean pros grabbed the Lions plus the points. Detroit has value as a contrarian dog in a heavily bet game and a buy-low home dog off a blowout loss. The total opened at 51, got bet up slightly to 51.5 and then came back down to 51. The public is leaning over, but this sharp line freeze indicates some under liability.
4:30 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys
This longtime holiday rivalry renews late afternoon on Thanksgiving day. Both of these NFC East rivals are coming off wins and still alive in the division race. Washington (3-7 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) just took down the Bengals 20-9, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. The Cowboys (3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS) are coming off a huge upset of the Vikings 31-28, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public says give me the Cowboys laying the short spread. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen the line remain frozen at 3. In fact, the juice on the Washington + 3 is -120, indicating liability on the Football Team and a possible drop down to 2.5. Washington has value as a divisional dog (31-24 ATS, 56% this season) and a short road dog + 6 or less (38-24 ATS, 61%). Clay Martin, the lead ref, is roughly 70% ATS to road teams. We've also seen some sharp money hit this under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46.