On Monday, NBA underdogs went an astounding 6-0 ATS and 5-1 straight up. Yesterday, favorites bounced back and got their revenge, going 4-2 ATS and 5-1 straight up. The lone underdog to win outright was the Thunder beating the Lakers 105-86 as a 5.5-point dog (+ 190 on the moneyline). This big swing from dogs to favorites is par for the course for experienced bettors. They know that there are unpredictable ups and downs in betting. And in the end, regression always wins.
It also offers a teachable moment to new bettors. Don't fall in love with recency bias and short trends. Just because dogs sweep the board one day doesn't mean you should bet all dogs the next day. Instead, focus on handicapping each game individually as best you can. Also, remember that oftentimes going against a short trend can be the smarter route. For example, if overs run wild and nearly every one cashes, you might think to bet all overs the following day. However, keep in mind that oddsmakers know these public tendencies. And as a result, they will likely shade numbers to the over, providing an added edge to sweat-inflated unders.
Today, we have another all day sweat on tap with 6 NBA games, 6 NHL games and 11 MLB games. Let's discuss four matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.
For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at Noon ET. I'll also be joining the Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m. ET to offer a market update.
1:30 p.m. ET: New Orleans Pelicans (29-38) vs Sacramento Kings (28-39)
This is the first game of the day and features a pair of teams fighting for their postseason lives. The Pelicans trail No. 8 seed Memphis by two games while the Kings trail by three games. New Orleans is 1-2 in the bubble, but is coming off an impressive win and cover over the Grizzlies 109-99 as 4.5-point favorites. The Kings are 0-3 in the bubble but covered in a loss their last time out to the Mavs 114-110 as 5.5-point dogs. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 4-point favorite. Sharps have quickly laid the points with the Pelicans, pushing the line up to -4.5. Pro money has also targeted the total. It opened at a high 234.5 and has dipped to 233.5, signaling some under liability. The Pelicans are 2-0 against the Kings this season, winning 117-115 and 133-129.
3:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (3-7) at Oakland Athletics (8-4)
The Athletics are hot. Oakland has won five straight and is going for the sweep after beating the Rangers in the first two games of this series 5-1 and 6-4. The Rangers send lefty Mike Minor (0-2, 5.91 ERA) to the mound while the A's trot out Mike Fiers (0-0, 5.40 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a -150 favorite and Texas a + 140 dog. The public sees red-hot Oakland at home against a team with a terrible record and that's all they need to know. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the wood with Oakland, we've seen this line fall away with the A's (-150 to -145) and toward the Rangers (+ 140 to + 135). This signals some sharp reverse-line movement on Texas. The Rangers are also a road divisional dog with a high total (8.5), a profitable spot historically. It looks like some smart money is also targeting the over. It opened at 8.5 (-110 both sides) and now sits at 8.5 over -115. The wind is blowing out to center at 5-10 MPH.
4 p.m. ET: Indiana Pacers (42-26) vs Phoenix Suns (29-39)
It's safe to say these teams have thoroughly enjoyed life in the bubble. Indiana and Phoenix are both 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS since the Orlando restart began. The Pacers currently occupy the No. 5 seed in the East and only trail No. 4 seed Miami by one game. Meanwhile, the Suns are living on a postseason prayer. Phoenix trails No. 8 seed Memphis by 2.5-games with five games to play.
This line opened with Indiana listed as a short 3-point favorite. The public remembers the Suns upsetting the Clippers 117-115 as 8.5-dogs their last time out. But they're also enthralled by Indiana's prolific scoring sensation T.J. Warren, who has scored 119 points in three games. Warren's hot streak combined with Indiana having a much better record is causing Average Joe's to lend their support to the Pacers. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points with Indiana, the line has remained at 3 or even fallen to 2.5 at some shops. This signals some sharp action on the Suns + 3. Pros and Joes are hammering the over. It's risen from 228.5 to 230. The over is 2-1 for both teams thus far in the bubble.
7:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (4-5) at Atlanta Braves (8-5)
These Interleague foes have split the first two games of the series. Toronto rewarded sharps last night by beating Atlanta 2-1. The Jays received less than half of tickets but moved from + 125 to + 113. Tonight, Toronto starts rookie phenom Nate Pearson. He is one of the top prospects in MLB and threw 5 innings of shutout ball against Washington in his debut. The Braves counter with Touki Toussaint (0-0, 8.10 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -136 favorite and the Jays a + 124 dog. Sharps immediately grabbed Toronto at plus money, dropping the Jays down to + 115. Toronto is also a dog with a high total (9). High totals benefit dogs as the higher amount of expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities.
Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN NBA Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks and for other legalized states.