Thursday Sharp Action Report for Heat-Pacers, Astros-Rockies and Brewers-Twins

August 20, 2020 12:22 AM

NBA underdogs posted their second straight winning day on Wednesday, going 3-1 ATS with a pair of outright victories. The Jazz upended the Nuggets 124-105 as + 3.5 dogs, cashing + 145 on the moneyline. Later in the night, the Mavericks took down the Clippers 127-114 as 5-point dogs (+ 185 on the moneyline). Both teams were blueprint examples of sharp reverse line moves. Utah fell from + 4 to + 3.5 and Dallas fell from + 6 to + 5 despite both teams receiving less than half of spread tickets. 

The other dogs to cover were the Nets, who lost to the Raptors 104-99 but easily covered the + 11.5. Brooklyn received a sharp line freeze. They only received one-third of tickets but the line didn't budge off the + 11.5. Anytime you see lopsided betting on one side but the line doesn't move, that signals liability and a reluctance by the books to hand out a better number to bettors backing the unpopular side.

The lone favorite to cover was the Celtics. They demolished the 76ers 128-101. Sharp action was leaning Philadelphia in that one, dropping the 76ers from + 5.5 to + 4.5, all to no avail. 

Overs went 3-1 yesterday. Overs are now 7-5 in the playoffs thus far. 

Today, we have another loaded all-day sweat with 4 NBA games, 14 MLB games and 2 NHL games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at Noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

1 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

 

The Heat lead this best-of-seven series 1-0. Miami won the opener 113-101, covering as 4-point favorites. The under 216 cashed by the skin of its teeth. This Game 2 line opened with the Heat listed as 5-point favorites. The public sees another win and cover for Miami. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line drop to 4.5. Some books are even down to 4. This is a clear example of sharp reverse-line movement on the dog with pros getting down hard on the Pacers + 5. We've also seen some action hit the total. It opened at 214.5 and has been bet up to 215 behind a combination of both Pro and Joe over money. Indiana guard Victor Oladipo is questionable with an eye injury but expected to play.

3:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (14-10) at Colorado Rockies (13-11)

The Astros posted their third straight victory over the Rockies last night, crushing Colorado 13-6 as -140 favorites. Houston will now go for the 4-game sweep in Thursday's series finale. The Astros will send out Cristian Javier (2-1, 2.91 ERA) while the Rockies counter with German Marquez (2-3, 2.25 ERA). This line opened Colorado listed as a short -114 home favorite and Houston a + 104 dog. The public is once again all over Houston, who is red-hot and riding a 7-game win streak. However, smart money has poured in on Colorado, pushing the Rockies from -114 all the way up to -130. Favorites are cashing at roughly a 65% clip this season. The Astros are 13-4 as a favorite but 0-6 as a dog this season.

7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (11-11) at Minnesota Twins (16-9)

These Interleague foes have split the first two games of this series. Minnesota won the opener 4-3 as -147 favorites and then the Brewers bounced back last night with a 9-3 win as juicy + 145 dogs. Milwaukee received sharp reverse line movement, falling from + 155 to + 145 despite receiving only one-third of bets. In tonight's rubber game, the Brewers will start Brandon Woodruff (1-1, 3.16 ERA) and the Twins counter with Jose Berrios (1-3, 5.92 ERA). Minnesota opened as a -130 home favorite and the Brewers a + 120 dog. Pro money has poured in on road dog Milwaukee, dropping the line to Twins -115, Bewers + 105. There also appears to be some liability on a higher-scoring game as the total is listed at 8.5 over -120.

Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks and for other legalized states. 

Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks and for other legalized states

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