Merry Christmas Eve! Today we have a lighter than usual slate with just one college football bowl game. As a result, we'll be taking a day off from the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. We'll be back at it on Friday to break down a loaded Christmas Day slate.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the smart money is flowing today's lone college gridiron matchup.
3:30 p.m. ET: Hawaii vs Houston
This is the New Mexico Bowl and it will be played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas. Hawaii (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) finished 5th in the Mountain West and beat UNLV 38-21 their last time out, although they failed to cover as 19-point home favorites. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 26 PPG on offense while allowing 29.3 PPG on defense. Meanwhile, Houston (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) started the season 2-1 but has gone just 1-3 since, finishing 6th in the American Conference. Houston just fell to Memphis 30-27, losing outright as 6.5-point road favorites. Houston had six games cancelled due to COVID throughout the season. The Cougars are averaging 32.4 PPG on offense while giving up 32.6 PPG on defense.
This line opened with Houston listed as an 11-point favorite. Early on some shops reached as high as Cougars -13. But since then we've seen a steady diet of both Pro and Joe money back Hawaii, dropping this line down to 10. Hawaii has value as a bowl dog facing a team who failed to make a Bowl Game the previous year. These dogs have covered at roughly a 57% clip over the past decade. Pros have also taken a liking to this under. The total opened at 61.5 and has been bet down to 59.5 despite the vast majority of the public taking the over. Weather could play a factor here. Toyota Stadium is an outdoor stadium and the forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds. Hawaii is 6-2 to the under this season. Houston is 4-3 to the over.