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Thursday Sharp Action Report for Giants-Eagles

October 21, 2020 11:52 PM

The Rays (+ 115) came up huge for dog bettors and sharps last night, defeating the Dodgers 6-4 in Game 2 of the World Series. The public was split on this game with moneyline bets virtually down the middle. However, we saw steady line movement toward Tampa from open to close (+ 135 to + 115). In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the bets are even. So we know this 20-cent drop was caused by wiseguys with respected money grabbing the Rays. In the last 10 minutes before first pitch, we saw another late move to the Rays, roughly + 125 to + 115. Late moves are very meaningful because they take place when limits are highest and the biggest sharp wagers get down.

The Over 8 also cashed. The total showed liability throughout the day with the over 8 juiced up to -115. The over is now 2-0 in the World Series and 18-12 over the past five years.

With the series tied 1-1, the Dodgers are now a -200 favorite to win the series at BetMGM. The Rays are + 165 dogs. 

For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the smart money is flowing for Thursday Night Football.

8:20 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

This Thursday Night Showdown features a pair of NFC East opponents with a combined 2-9-1 record. The Giants (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) enter this game with some confidence, though, as they just earned their first victory of the season in Week 6, beating Washington 20-19 but failing to cover as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (1-4-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) are riding a two-game losing skid, although they hung tough last week against the Ravens, losing 30-28 but covering as 10-point dogs. The Giants are -51 in point differential this season. The Eagles are -34.

This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public wants nothing to do with Danny Dimes and the Giants and still believes in the former Super Bowl champion Eagles. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points with Philadelphia, we've seen this line fall from Eagles -6 to -4.5. This sharp reverse line movement away from the popular side (Eagles) and toward the unpopular side (Giants) signals pro money grabbing New York plus the points.

The Giants have value as "fade the public" play in a heavily bet primetime game. New York is also a road divisional dog and a road team with a line move in their favor (28-16, 64% ATS this season). Short road dogs (+ 6 or less) are 23-12 ATS (66%) this season. The Eagles are dealing with a plethora of injuries and will be without offensive weapons Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz on Thursday night. Respected money hit the under early, dropping it from 45 to 43.5. But over the past 24-hours we've seen over buyback, pushing it back up to 45. The under is 4-2 in Giants games. The over is 4-2 in Eagles games. The weather shouldn't be an issue tonight. The forecast calls for high 60s, partly cloudy and little to no wind.

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