Thursday Sharp Action Report for Dodgers-Braves

October 15, 2020 12:36 AM

Wednesday was a thrilling night in the MLB playoffs, with one team getting back into the series and another avoiding elimination. Overall, dogs/favorites and over/unders each went 1-1.

In the early game, the Dodgers (-200) thrashed the Braves 15-3 to earn their first win of the series and cut Atlanta's lead to 2-1. Los Angeles set an MLB-record when they scored 11-runs in the first inning, handing over (9.5) bettors one of the earliest cashes of all-time. The Dodgers were both a Pro and Joe play, as they received just over half the tickets but also big steam from respected bettors (-165 to -200).

In the late game, the Astros (+ 117) hung on and beat the Rays 4-3, avoiding a sweep and cutting Tampa's series lead to 3-1. Houston received some late sharp action, falling from + 128 to + 117. The under also cashed for wiseguys. A majority of bets were on the over yet the under 8.5 was juiced up to -115, signaling under liability. Some books even fell to 8.

So far in the playoffs, favorites lead with a 27-12 record (69%). Unders also hold a slight lead, going 21-18 (54%).

Here are the updated World Series odds at BetMGM

Rays + 120

Braves + 240

Dodgers + 240

Astros + 1600

Now it's on to Thursday. We have a relatively light betting slate today with one college football game and two MLB playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the smart money is flowing for one of tonight's big MLB playoff games.

8:08 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves

This is Game 4 of the NLCS. The Braves rushed out to a surprising 2-0 series lead, but then the Dodgers exploded for a 15-3 win in last night's Game 3, cutting the series deficit to 2-1. Tonight, Los Angeles turns to ace lefty Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16 ERA) while Atlanta counters with youngster Bryse Wilson (1-0, 4.02 ERA). With this clear pitching matchup advantage, the Dodgers opened as hefty -200 favorites and the Braves a + 170 dog. The public is all over Los Angeles coming off a huge blowout win. And Pros aren't outthinking this one either. Both are hammering the Dodgers, which has pushed Los Angeles up from -200 to -220.

We've also seen some smart money hit the under. It opened at a high 9.5. The public is taking the over, expecting another high-scoring game. However, the juice on the under 9.5 is -120, signaling under liability. Some shops have even fallen to 9. One reason to like the under is the weather. In last night's game, we saw the Globe Life retractable roof open and the wind was howling out, which helped the over. But tonight's conditions are totally opposite. Winds are expected to be blowing in at 15 MPH, a big edge to the under. Also, Dan Iassogna is behind the plate. Historically he has favored unders (53%). 

Leading the series 2-1, Atlanta is a -130 favorite (56.5%) to advance to the World Series. The Dodgers are + 110.

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