Thursday Night Football Sharp Report



Today bettors have a loaded Thursday slate to choose from, including Thursday Night Football in both pro and college, plus 3 NBA games, 11 NHL games and 14 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

Now let's discuss where the money is flowing for Thursday Night Football in both pro and college...


7:30 p.m. ET: North Carolina at Pittsburgh

This battle between ACC rivals is the only College Football game of the night, so it will garner a lot of eyes and high ticket counts. North Carolina (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) is coming off a big 58-55 win over Wake Forest, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) is ranked 21st in the country and just dismissed Duke 54-29, covering as 21-point road favorites. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 6-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Pittsburgh, pushing the Panthers up from -6 to -6.5. Both of these teams can put up a lot of points (38.9 PPG for UNC and 45 PPG for Pitt). The difference comes on defense. North Carolina is allowing 33.4 PPG while Pitt is only giving up 22.7 PPG. 

We've also seen some money hit the under, dropping the total from 74 to 73. Weather could play a factor, as the forecast calls for low 60s with 15 MPH winds and possibly some rain. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 66-43 (61%) this season. 


8:20 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

These non-division AFC opponents are at opposite ends of the standings. The Ravens (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) lead the AFC North and just beat the Vikings 34-31 last week, although Baltimore failed to cover as a 7-point home favorite. On the flip side, the Dolphins (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) sit in last place in the AFC East. Miami beat Houston 17-9 last week, covering as 4-point home favorites. The win snapped a 7-game losing streak for the Dolphins. Baltimore is  26 in point differential. Miami is -87.

This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. Heavy betting has poured in on Baltimore, steaming the Ravens up from -6.5 to -7.5. Baltimore will be a popular teaser play (-7.5 down to -1.5), which takes you through the key numbers of 7 and 3. At this point, the Dolphins present intriguing buy-low value. Miami is contrarian in a heavily bet game, as roughly 75% or more of bets are laying the chalk Baltimore. Primetime dogs are 19-8 ATS (70%) this season. Conference dogs are 56-34 ATS (62%). 

We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46.5. Unders are 74-61 (55%) this season. Primetime overs are 14-12 (54%). 

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